Don’t underestimate Laura Muir

I’m such a Laura fan and her performances over the years on the world stage have been impressive. She seems off this season. Lost at the British champs last night. Said she ran a bad race tactically (this is true). It was a slow 1500m and maybe she should have gone earlier. But then she had a big loss in the 800m in France a few weeks ago - though to be honest she looked ill. I know lots of our athletes were ill around the Euros.

Her current form seems questionable? Or is she just better on the world stage when she’s running against faster athletes? I see you’ve said she’s done no tapering for races. So all eyes on the Olympics and she hasn’t been bothered about winning the other races this year?

i feel like youre clutching at straws just based off of what you want to happen. She changed coach, she changed training style, and now she isnt able to race the same. Simple. She nearly got outleaned at the line by an athlete who's never broken 4. She will get washed at OLY, unfortunately.

She has to be mentioned but a medal is unlikely. Muir doesn't go with the pace when it's as fast as it's expected to be in Paris. That means she'll be dependent on multiple young stars collapsing in front of her.

Kipyegon won't want a particularly fast pace, after already running the 5000. But it's difficult to believe the rest of the field won't force it to be fast. It's suicidal for them if they allow Kipyegon to cruise in front at 4 minute pace before unleashing a kick that nobody else can match.

Watched her post race interview and she was upbeat but looked like she hadn't slept for two days . Somethings up .

Yeah I agree. She looked very tired.

I am hoping she turns it around in time - she did last year. But it’s going be tough with lots of athletes on the upswing this year - Jessica Hull never used to beat her and can now. ESP in spectacular form. And Faith is Faith!

3:53 is a good start to championship season.

Question: Is she related at all to former British runner Tina Muir? This has been something I've wondered since I first heard of Laura a couple years ago.

Didn't Muir just get beat easily in the 800 by a 17 year old?

I'm glad Muir got her silver in Tokyo. The event hadn't fully evolved at that point. She was able to sit back and take advantage of Hassan faltering late.

Today played out as I mentioned a few days ago. Muir is not willing to go with 3:50 type pace. Meanwhile one woman after another is giving it a try and being rewarded.

Nobody runs a 5 second personal best at 1500 via sit and kick

Nice call, OP! I was worried that she was on the decline, but it looks like she is in top form and peaking at the right time.

Yes - good call. She ran a national record yesterday and a PB. She’s clearly been putting in the training and timing her peak. I’m guessing she was tired and untapered in her last few races.

Problem now for her is Jess Hull’s staggering improvement.

In interviews post-race Muir noted: 1) she was thrilled to drop PB to 3:53; 2) she felt too strong down the stretch and “was left standing” and so she figured she could’ve run at least 3:52 yesterday (as much as any runner, she gets every second out of her body in big races); 3) it was her last race before Olympics — back to St. Moritz right up till Paris first round for her sharpening period (she is set on strength). Therefore, even this 3:53 wasn’t her fully tapered and speed-work-sharp self.

But, sure, I agree with posters above — Paris will be crazy competitive and will require strategical daring and the effort of a lifetime by all medalists not named Faith. I consider Muir and ESP and Hiltz to be in the mix. Muir and ESP will be inspired/motivated by Hull’s amazing race. (But as great as Hull’s 3:50.83 2nd place in a DL was, St. Pierre’s 8:20 to win a world gold was as at least as big a revelation — each showing their belief that if fit/rested they could race at any pace vs anyone).

Ethiopia bears watching. If Tsegay scratches they suddenly go from what should be 3 medal contenders in my eyes to 1. I don’t trust Meshesha or Haylom one bit. Haylom is an erratic racer, and Meshesha hasn’t shown good form this year. Welteji is the one really solid entrant for now considering the 5/10k double seems much more sensible for Tsegay. If it’s just Faith and Welteji at the front that run for bronze is wide open.

If I were power ranking:

Tier A: Faith

Tier B: Tsegay, Welteji

Tier C: Hailu (idiotically not selected by Ethiopia), Hull, Muir, ESP, Mageean, Chepchirchir, Haylom

Tier D: Hiltz, MacKay, Bell, Ejore, Hall, Meshesha, Healy

I think the temptation is to move Hull to Tier B instead of the head of Tier C with Hailu.