Even if Alicia Monson was healthy, I think Weini or Parker would have given her a solid run. Now Weini and Parker have to be the solid picks in the 10000m and contenders I the 5000m if they tow the line healthy.
I think BOTH current 10000m personal best will be lowered later this year. Weini capable of approaching sub 30:10 and Valby definitely sub 30:25.
Which one do you think will win the10000m at the U.S. Trials, maybe someone else, so WHO is your pick?
I like Weini Kelati. It will be fun to see how Valby does against the pros on the big stage considering that she is used to front running and easily winning the college races.
Even if Alicia Monson was healthy, I think Weini or Parker would have given her a solid run. Now Weini and Parker have to be the solid picks in the 10000m and contenders I the 5000m if they tow the line healthy.
I think BOTH current 10000m personal best will be lowered later this year. Weini capable of approaching sub 30:10 and Valby definitely sub 30:25.
Which one do you think will win the10000m at the U.S. Trials, maybe someone else, so WHO is your pick?
Since Weini Kelati is the only US woman running at the Trials that has the Olympic standard, is there any realistic way that she doesn't make the team?
Couldn't she just jog the 10k at the Trials, finish in 10th or 15th place, and still make the team?
Since Weini Kelati is the only US woman running at the Trials that has the Olympic standard, is there any realistic way that she doesn't make the team?
Couldn't she just jog the 10k at the Trials, finish in 10th or 15th place, and still make the team?
Since Weini Kelati is the only US woman running at the Trials that has the Olympic standard, is there any realistic way that she doesn't make the team?
Couldn't she just jog the 10k at the Trials, finish in 10th or 15th place, and still make the team?
No, this is a misunderstanding.
It depends upon the ranking of the Top 3 finishers.
The following was written by etposzojka on 4/20/24:
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For any athlete to qualify, they need either the 30:40 time standard, a cross country ranking spot, or a high world ranking in the 10000. There is a priority based on method of qualification, with the time standard at the top, followed by cross country ranking, followed by 10000 world ranking. This means that the number of time qualifiers determines how many 10000 ranking quota spots are available, since the number of cross country ranking qualification spots is always 8.
Right now, there are 15 spots taken by time qualifiers, since each country is limited to 3 entries (both Kenya and Ethiopia have >10 time qualifiers, but can only send 3). For Americans, only Weini Kelati and Alicia Monson have time qualifiers.
The spots numbering 16-23 are reserved for the next 8 highest athletes in the world cross country rankings, of those who have not attained the 10000 time standard. Katie Izzo is the only American qualified this way. It is important to mention that there are multiple athletes qualified in the world cross country quota who have not run a 10000 metre race or who have not broken 32 minutes, and these athletes are likely to be left off their national teams. Also, the top ranked qualifier by cross ranking, Rahel Daniel of Eritrea, has not raced since February of 2023 which is around when the DSD ban was enacted. If these spots are not used by these athletes, they will NOT go to lower ranked cross country athletes, but rather lower ranked 10000 metre athletes. For American purposes, if Katie Izzo is not in the top 3 at the Olympic trials, she will be removed from the cross country quota as long as 3 athletes who beat her would qualify through either the standard or 10000 ranking.
All remaining spots 24-27 will be taken from the 10000m rankings of those who have not qualified through the standard or cross country. The final spot right now is held by Rino Goshima of Japan, and all athletes ranked ahead of her could be sent by their country should they be selected. Fiona O'Keeffe, Elly Henes, and Natosha Rogers are currently ahead of Goshima, and are thus qualified. Realistically however, more Americans will qualify by ranking since two cross country athletes are almost guaranteed to drop (Daniel and Nadia Battocletti, who has said she will not run the 10000), and two more are highly likely to drop, being Veerle Bakker of the Netherlands and Francine Niyomukunzi of Burundi, who were qualified for Budapest but did not run the 10000.
Assuming all four will drop, the next 10000 ranking spots will go to Camilla Richardsson of Finland, Laura Galvan of Mexico, Joan Chelimo Melly of Romania, and Wuga He of China. This would put Elise Cranny and Keira D'Amato in qualified position. However, Richardsson and Melly are qualified for the marathon, and with the marathon being only two days after the women's 10000, they will almost certainly drop the 10000. Their spots would then go to Isabel Barreiro of Spain and Alina Reh of Germany, putting Karissa Schweizer in a qualifying spot as well.
Since the cross country season ended, it is no longer possible to attain a spot that way, but it is still possible to attain the standard or improve world ranking with two good performances from 31 December 2022 - 30 June 2024. I could see someone like Parker Valby easily entering the quota by running a good race at the Trials, since Wuga He would qualify with times of 31:14 and 31:55, and Valby has already run 30:50 worth 1226 points. Even a time slower than 32:00 would probably put her ahead of He (1183 pts) since so many bonus points would be added on if she is top 3. Sara Hall would need to race a 10000 with a performance score of at least 1194 to pass Reh and at least 1204 to pass He. For reference, Natosha Rogers had a performance score of 1189 when she finished third at last year's trials. This of course is considering athletes from other countries do not also improve their rankings or hit the standard, which is still possible.
The following was written by etposzojka on 4/20/24:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For any athlete to qualify, they need either the 30:40 time standard, a cross country ranking spot, or a high world ranking in the 10000. There is a priority based on method of qualification, with the time standard at the top, followed by cross country ….
^^^^Rankings have changed for some athletes, since the time that was written. I read the analysis, and it is not clear to me what ranking score will be required.
Suppose it is a very hot day on the day of the 10000m, and the winning time will s slower than 32min. In that scenario, maybe there is the possibility that only Kelati (having the oly-time-standard) makes the team?
I think if it ended that way and nothing changes between now and then, it would be Kelati and Izzo, so long as they finish the race. Correct me if Im wrong?
Yes, everyone was aware of the qualifying procedures. She simply used the loophole that was available to everyone. At least she is a professional runner. Remember the fraud who scammed the system to make the Olympics in the halfpipe and can barely ride a snowboard?
Since Weini Kelati is the only US woman running at the Trials that has the Olympic standard, is there any realistic way that she doesn't make the team?
Couldn't she just jog the 10k at the Trials, finish in 10th or 15th place, and still make the team?
Her risk in doing this would be if any of the top 3 at Usatf managed to - get the standard, - were high enough in world ranking or - happened to be on the xc list.
Its so ridiculous that Katie Izzo could get on the team by simply racing and not even placing top 3. What a dumb system.
But that is the system, and runners who are best at figuring out how to best deal with the system make teams.
Sort of like the 1968 Olympic Marathon Trials held at 7500' elevation in Alamosa, CO with a hot afternoon start time of 3pm. Relatively unheralded Ron Daws made the team by finishing 3rd in 2:33. He spent 6 weeks living and training at altitude in Alamosa before the race. He ran in heavy cotton sweat suits to heat acclimatize. He practiced running 5:45 mile pace and stuck to that plan. Other faster more talented runners were not ready for the heat or altitude, went out too fast and faded or dropped out.
He finished 22nd (of 75 starters) in the Olympic Marathon in Mexico City that year with another 2:33 marathon.
He knew what he was capable of doing within the system, and did it.
Its so ridiculous that Katie Izzo could get on the team by simply racing and not even placing top 3. What a dumb system.
But that is the system, and runners who are best at figuring out how to best deal with the system make teams.
Sort of like the 1968 Olympic Marathon Trials held at 7500' elevation in Alamosa, CO with a hot afternoon start time of 3pm. Relatively unheralded Ron Daws made the team by finishing 3rd in 2:33. He spent 6 weeks living and training at altitude in Alamosa before the race. He ran in heavy cotton sweat suits to heat acclimatize. He practiced running 5:45 mile pace and stuck to that plan. Other faster more talented runners were not ready for the heat or altitude, went out too fast and faded or dropped out.
He finished 22nd (of 75 starters) in the Olympic Marathon in Mexico City that year with another 2:33 marathon.
He knew what he was capable of doing within the system, and did it.
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