Any and all predictions post here. How dominant will Valby, Rose and Young be? Will Habtom Samuel be able to overcome his lack of a kick to win an NCAA title? Start lists located
Yes, Wolfe is good, remind me what happened indoors off a slow pace?
Nico is still the 5k favorite in my opinion. Parker had looked good this spring and I think he has a good shot but nothing is indicating that he is on Nico’s level. Nico could be training through the NCAAs as well. Graham Blanks is also in the conversation and is most likely looking to peak at Olympic Trials but look out if he’s healthy. The kid knows how to race.
Absolutely stacked second heat of the men's 1500m with Basten, Green, Cook, Spencer, Sahlman, Houser, and Waskom. You could make a realistic argument for any of these seven winning it all, but the only way all can advance is if Heat 2 gets both time qualifiers.
In addition, the heats are almost perfectly split by region- 11/12 from Heat 1 from the East and Heat 2 from the West. It would be fun to calculate the chances of that happening.
Absolutely stacked second heat of the men's 1500m with Basten, Green, Cook, Spencer, Sahlman, Houser, and Waskom. You could make a realistic argument for any of these seven winning it all, but the only way all can advance is if Heat 2 gets both time qualifiers.
In addition, the heats are almost perfectly split by region- 11/12 from Heat 1 from the East and Heat 2 from the West. It would be fun to calculate the chances of that happening.
Hm so to get all possible arrangements, you would do 24C12=2704156. But remember that this would count each arrangement twice assuming you don't care which heat is heat 1 and which heat is heat 2. So 1352078.
The odds of all 12 East in one heat and all 12 West in the other heat is 1/1352078 or around 10^(-6).
For 11 East and 1 West in one heat, you can think of it as choosing one random East athlete and one random West athlete to swap for 12*12=144 possibilities. 144/1352078 is around 10^(-4).
Also, you'd have to think that the UW milers would want to make sure heat 2 is faster to make sure they all qualify.
Absolutely stacked second heat of the men's 1500m with Basten, Green, Cook, Spencer, Sahlman, Houser, and Waskom. You could make a realistic argument for any of these seven winning it all, but the only way all can advance is if Heat 2 gets both time qualifiers.
In addition, the heats are almost perfectly split by region- 11/12 from Heat 1 from the East and Heat 2 from the West. It would be fun to calculate the chances of that happening.
Hm so to get all possible arrangements, you would do 24C12=2704156. But remember that this would count each arrangement twice assuming you don't care which heat is heat 1 and which heat is heat 2. So 1352078.
The odds of all 12 East in one heat and all 12 West in the other heat is 1/1352078 or around 10^(-6).
For 11 East and 1 West in one heat, you can think of it as choosing one random East athlete and one random West athlete to swap for 12*12=144 possibilities. 144/1352078 is around 10^(-4).
Also, you'd have to think that the UW milers would want to make sure heat 2 is faster to make sure they all qualify.
Could you repeat the part about the stuff with the thing...
Screw it, here are all of my distance predictions:
W 800- Tough to imagine Michaela Rose losing this after being dominant all season, but we said that before Juliette Whittaker took her down indoors. Roisin Willis looks to be heading back in the right direction after not making the final indoors. It will be interesting to see if Sanu Jallow can back up her 1:59.29 at SECs challenging Rose, which was a 3-second PR. 1. Michaela Rose 2. Juliette Whittaker 3. Roisin Willis
W 1500- As stacked as this field is, Maia Ramsden looks almost unbeatable. But the Providence duo will be tough to beat if she is not 100%. I could see Riley Chamberlain also surprising here if she can summon her kick from the DMR indoors. 1. Maia Ramsden 2. Kimberley May 3. Shannon Flockhart
W Steeple- The Lemngole/Markezich duel here will be one to watch. Lemngole beat her convincingly at Wake Forest, but Markezich typically starts her season slow and brings her best to the championships. I would not be surprised to see Courtney Wayment’s 9:16.00 collegiate record fall. 1. Doris Lemngole 2. Olivia Markezich 3. Elise Thorner
W 5k- Ramsden, Ayyildiz, and Appleton may be able to use their speed in a tactical race, but there is no way this goes slow with Valby in the field. There will be great racing for the remaining All-American spots, but Olememoi and Roe might be the only ones who can hang with Valby. 1. Parker Valby 2. Hilda Olememoi 3. Taylor Roe
W 10k- Same story as the 5k 1. Parker Valby 2. Hilda Olememoi 3. Taylor Roe
M 800- Wow, this event has really exploded since indoors with Sam Whitmarsh dropping a 1:44.46 in late March and 8 others in this field running 1:45 this season. Whitmarsh has continued to look strong, and I will be looking for him to have a Brazier or Sumner-like breakout race here. 1. Sam Whitmarsh 2. Yusuf Bizimana 3. Sean Dolan
M 1500- This race is honestly a crapshoot with 6-8 guys having a realistic shot of winning. Tactical experience will be important here, so I think Adam Spencer and the UW boys have a slight advantage. Waskom has not looked like himself this season, but maybe he will bounce back here. 1. Adam Spencer 2. Nathan Green 3. Luke Houser
M Steeple- Wide open, I’m sure somebody not mentioned here will come out and surprise. 1. Nathan Mountain 2. Abdelhakim Abouzouhir 3. Victor Kibiego
M 5k- Agree that Nico Young is the favorite, but Parker Wolfe will challenge him more than some might expect. Wolfe was the only one to put up a fight indoors, and he has continued to look sharp this season. I will be rooting for Graham Blanks, but obviously there is more uncertainty around his fitness returning from injury. 1. Nico Young 2. Parker Wolfe 3. Ky Robinson
M 10k- Habtom Samuel has to be the heavy favorite without Young, Wolfe, or Robinson here. I could see a number of guys outkicking him if he leaves it to the last 400m, but it should not be tough for a 26:53 guy to drop this field. Alex Maier is a dark horse- after getting 3rd in the 3k indoors, hopefully we will see the version of himself that finished 2nd here two years ago. 1. Habtom Samuel 2. Patrick Kiprop 3. Victor Kiprop
M 1500 could be one of eight people, there's no clear favorite like the W 1500m. It's anyone's race, I'd say.
whoever has it on the day! edit: i don't really want Adam Spencer to win, because he uses his elbows too much. like a human wrecking ball. you should use your speed to get to the front of the pack, not your size.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
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Apparently Parker Valby is planning to run in both the 5k and 10k. I honestly think it would be best if she just ran the 5k and went all out and broke the college 5k outdoor record. That would give her 3 records along with the 10k and the 5k indoor. It would minimize chances of injury before Olympic trials.She can run both at the trials a couple weeks later. I get it it that she would like to have the 10k championship too, but she has several championships already.
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