Post-Oslo World 1500m Power Rankings Update

How on earth can Tim be 6th, thats my first takeaway from this. In that case Jakob should be 5th. Tim is lethal if he puts everything together this year, imo.

You can't overreact to one race or strip it of its context. Jakob tired after running all-out in Pre, leads the whole thing and Tim almost sneaks by at the end. Tim was definitely more rested, and had the luxury of running behind Jakob pretty much the whole race. I still think Brian Komen is ahead of him and probably would've won the race outright today had he been in it. But Jakob deserves credit for racing on such a short turnaround and finding a way to win.

+1

I think Tim should be 4 and Brian Komen 5.

Jake Wightman´s Bowerman mile time converts to high 3:30 so Tim is more than 1 sec ahead and Komen has a DL opener win.

Jake Heyward: Is he still active? He hasn´t run any official races since September 2022!?

I could see that 4-6 in any order, so I respect other opinions on it. Komen hasn't taken a step wrong this season minus barely getting beat by Reynold Cheruiyot at Kip Keino. I just have to give what I've seen my respect. He blew by Tim in Doha, and since then he destroyed everyone (including Tim) at Kenyan Champs. Yes, Tim was doubling and seemingly going harder in his 800s. To me, I give a lot of respect to Wightman for his credentials going in and I know he will fare better in 1500s than an all-out mile. I don't think a straight-up conversion from Pre is that instructive. He lost a lot of ground late, and he will continually get fitter.

As for Heyward, sadly no. He was briefly on a DL startlist before, but scratched.

3:31.14 to be exact. As much as I love the guy, at the moment he is not above Habz or Gourley. He does have a lot of potential though and I'm excited to see him run in Stockholm this Saturday and in NY in a week.

A lot of potential?! Soon he will be 30 and he has already improved with around 4.5 sec in the mile.

How fast do you think he can run in the 1500m before Paris?

It converts to 3:30.95 using the standard 1.08 conversion. It's also stripping what Wightman did fully of its context if you don't consider that he ran aggressively towards the front at Pre while Gourley ran a much more cautious race and benefited from some carnage ahead of him (due to the fast early pace). Yes, Wightman fell off a bit the last 200 but for a guy stretched on the aerobic side it's a strong performance in the mile. Let's not even get into the fact that Gourley's best result is way back in a final and Wightman has a World Title. As for Habz, with the conversion he has a marginally better time. Still, I'd lean Wightman at this point. I expect there's more in the tank when he runs a fast 1500, and I also think if he were thrown into this Oslo race fully rested like Tim he is right there with him and Jakob not a second back like Habz was.

1. The man to beat

Kerr

2. The next guy

Jakob

3.Dark Horse

Nuguse, Wightman, Potato Tim

4. Also-run

the rest

Just for the record, I think Kerr is favorite. I think JI was to greedy last season, but still - if he couldnt beat him then I dont know how he can do it now. I also cant see how he won't lose some weeks from having a new baby, if they haven't hired a nanny or two and he is sleeping in a different part of the house. I hope for Jakob but I think he will have to have a perfect season untill then.

I mean last year I don't think anyone thought Nordas would be a medalist, but you never know.

In case anyone was wondering, it was George Mills who flat-tired Nordas from behind.

McSweyn should be about 359 just below Seb Coe and Steve Cram. If he gets picked over 1500m by Australia a full corruption investigation should be done.

I dont think he will be, but Hunt/Myers will need to firm up their position with a 3:32 type run (ideally with a H2H victory). Myers' Pre was decent for sure.

I used the IAAF point table. I get what you're saying, but at the end of the day Gourley still has beaten Wightman at PRE and Habz has pretty much the same PB in 1500m, but slightly better SB when converted from Wightman's mile result. So for now all three of them can be tucked tightly in the same tier.

The guy just ran 1:44.10 800m and 3:47 mile without much specific training after recovering from an injury. I think there is plenty of potential for this season. He is eyeing a 1:43 this saturday.

3:29 would be nice.

The unknown variable is that "Brian Komen" and why he jumped suddenly to the first ranks with a single DL win while he ranked 8 in a 1500m 4 months before

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Gourley is clearly a bias to Bowerman mile results.

It’s fair. I give Wightman more of the benefit of the doubt on account of both the 1:44.1 800m and I think a mile is slightly less favorable to him. I also am realistic about Gourley coming in on little buildup and how that might affect his ceiling for the season.

Great list you put together! I think Mario and Nordas are too low. I know this is more based on the season so far, but Mario has finished 4th and 6th in the last 2 championship exceeding expectations going into the race. If he runs at least 3:30 before Paris, I can see him 4th-6th. Nordas seems to be coming along this season and could've possibly ran 3:31 or so which would have been a solid result. Both of these athletes won't have to fight hard to make their team (Katir out really helps Mario). The US, British, and Kenyan athletes will have to take their trials seriously (save Kerr).

Also if Tim is back like I think he is and not dealing with injuries like he has been, he could turn into more of the #4 guy.

I would love to see Laros back in form by Paris. Also had no idea Heyward and Stonier were injured. It's still going to be hard to make that GB team!