I think you need sub 44 400m speed to do it. Steven Gardiner might have as chance if he moved up.
Rudisha was probably a 44.high guy fully sharpened (45.5 as season opener) and I think he could've run 1:40.4ish with perfect drafting to 600m, in a one off race without rounds fatigue in his London shape.
So maybe a ~44.2 guy who's physiologically perfectly suited for the 800 could do it? A slightly faster peak Emmanuel Korir with more endurance basically. Simple to say it but much harder to ask for...
No chance anyone is breaking 1:40 anytime soon considering 1:42.80 was the best time in the world last year. 2.8 seconds over two laps is massive. This also seems like the one race where the super shoes don't help. You're not saving your legs with super shoes. You are blowing them up to kingdom come with 300 to go.
Considering the WR is at 1:40.91 it's definitely possible, but when do you guys think it will happen and who's the current guy with the best chance?
I don’t think it’ll be in this generation of 800m runners.
Arop is great and he’s an absolute animal but I don’t really see what other people are seeing when they say he’s gonna be the next world record holder. I think it would be amazing if he broke 1:42 and I’m rooting for it.
Considering the WR is at 1:40.91 it's definitely possible, but when do you guys think it will happen and who's the current guy with the best chance?
I think you need sub 44 400m speed to do it. Steven Gardiner might have as chance if he moved up.
Watch Rudisha’s WR again, and tell me with a straight face (figuratively), that Gardiner could ever been capable of running anywhere near that fast. Did you know that he turns 29 this year? Rudisha was 23 when he set the record.
Considering the WR is at 1:40.91 it's definitely possible, but when do you guys think it will happen and who's the current guy with the best chance?
No one current has any chance at it. There is a lot of misunderstanding about the 800 in the United States because of the 800 being included as a distance event at the HS level. It is a long sprint and speed is by far the most important part of the 800 at any level.
The first person to break 1:40 will be the first person to go 43.9 in the 400 and 3:29 in the 1500.
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Define "soon" for us... this century? Probably. The next ten years? I doubt it.
The shoes and wavelights don't seem to be helping the half-milers very much. Everything longer is getting impacted, but the 800 is super stagnant. Guys from the 1980s could be winning races today...
Wanyonyi is the only active guy who has an outside shot at breaking the WR, but sub 1:40 is another level entirely.
The unique demands of the 800 make it way harder to train for than any other event, it's why the WR has fallen the smallest amount proportionally in the drug-testing era. Barring some huge breakthrough in training (or PEDs), it'll take a generational talent with 44.mid speed and superhuman speed endurance. It'll happen eventually, but it could take 10 years or it could take 30.
Wanyonyi is the only active guy who has an outside shot at breaking the WR, but sub 1:40 is another level entirely.
The unique demands of the 800 make it way harder to train for than any other event, it's why the WR has fallen the smallest amount proportionally in the drug-testing era. Barring some huge breakthrough in training (or PEDs), it'll take a generational talent with 44.mid speed and superhuman speed endurance. It'll happen eventually, but it could take 10 years or it could take 30.
I think I'd take your bet if you said 10 years. Just think where we were 10 years ago? Pre-supershoes 2012 was better than 2024. The event has actually gotten worse in the last decade. The next decade might be no better.
It is the one "distance" event where I do think we are essentially at our limits.
No one current has any chance at it. There is a lot of misunderstanding about the 800 in the United States because of the 800 being included as a distance event at the HS level. It is a long sprint and speed is by far the most important part of the 800 at any level.
The first person to break 1:40 will be the first person to go 43.9 in the 400 and 3:29 in the 1500.
I don't think they'll need a 3:29 as much as they will need a 3:29 1500, but 100% speed is the priority.
The reason why the 800 is treated like a distance race at the HS level is because, well, there's hardly any other distance events, at least in the US. The only other two are 1600 and 3200, so the 800 being considered "distance" balances it out
I still think Wilson Kipketer would of broken 1:40 on a modren track with the latest super spikes.
The WR is not falling but the depth is increasing, more so for girls than the boys. There are always a bunch of threads about girls smashing 2 minutes.
No one current has any chance at it. There is a lot of misunderstanding about the 800 in the United States because of the 800 being included as a distance event at the HS level. It is a long sprint and speed is by far the most important part of the 800 at any level.
The first person to break 1:40 will be the first person to go 43.9 in the 400 and 3:29 in the 1500.
I don't think they'll need a 3:29 as much as they will need a 3:29 1500, but 100% speed is the priority.
The reason why the 800 is treated like a distance race at the HS level is because, well, there's hardly any other distance events, at least in the US. The only other two are 1600 and 3200, so the 800 being considered "distance" balances it out
"The reason why the 800 is treated like a distance race at the HS level is because, well, there's hardly any other distance events, at least in the US. The only other two are 1600
This is true and it makes me sad. Wish US HS runners had more distance options - it also makes the battle for a team title very sprint-dominant.
It would be nice if more HS state meets had options like the 5k and 3k steeple, but thats pretty much the definition of a pipe dream. Can you imagine telling thousands of schools across the US that they need to build steeple pits?
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Not anytime soon. Nobody has the potential to break 1:41 at the moment, let alone 1:40. Not even sure anybody has a chance at sub 1:42.
You seem not to realize how exceptionnal Rudisha was. 1:42 is already very high level. 1:39 is out of the world. It's like asking for sub 3:24 1500. Not happening until significant tech improvment. Several decades before 1:39 imo.
I still think Wilson Kipketer would of broken 1:40 on a modren track with the latest super spikes.
The WR is not falling but the depth is increasing, more so for girls than the boys. There are always a bunch of threads about girls smashing 2 minutes.
Super spikes really aren't doing much for the 800. There's more 1:44 guys now than 20 years ago, sure, but the very top times aren't falling at all— nobody's gone faster than 1:42.8 in the 2020s!
I still think Wilson Kipketer would of broken 1:40 on a modren track with the latest super spikes.
The WR is not falling but the depth is increasing, more so for girls than the boys. There are always a bunch of threads about girls smashing 2 minutes.
Super spikes really aren't doing much for the 800. There's more 1:44 guys now than 20 years ago, sure, but the very top times aren't falling at all— nobody's gone faster than 1:42.8 in the 2020s!
Pretty much all sprint times have stagnated in general.
200W: Florence Griffith Joyner, 21.34, 1988; WL Shericka Jackson 21.41 (this is actually close)
400W: Marita Koch, 47.60, 1985; WL Sydney McLaughlin 48.74
800W: Jarmilla Kratochvilova, 1:53.28, 1983; WL Athing Mu 1:54.97
Not going to even bother with women's hurdles, because those records are dropping every year, and it's because there are simply better athletes/better coaching doing women's hurdles now. All four of the flat race women's records are by runners doped to the gills, but the easy conclusion at this point is that the super shoes have not yet outpaced steroids for sprinters. On the men's side, doping is debatable (I actually have doubts any of those records are by dopers), but Bolt and Rudisha are simply two of the best pure runners of all time. Doping and supershoes aren't helping mere mortals catch them.
No chance anyone is breaking 1:40 anytime soon considering 1:42.80 was the best time in the world last year. 2.8 seconds over two laps is massive. This also seems like the one race where the super shoes don't help. You're not saving your legs with super shoes. You are blowing them up to kingdom come with 300 to go.
2.8 seconds?
1:42.33 45 years ago. For sure it easily could be achieved. This doesn't mean it soon will be achieved. The 800m record currently is the "weakest" from 800 to 10000.
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