From how far out does Jakob start the squeeze?

No kick was needed for Kerr to win because he was fitter...if Ingebrigtsen frontruns from 600, though, then Kerr can sit and kick whatever the pace he is going out (unless it is loudicrously below WR pace).

There have been thousands of posts on this subject and thousands of races between strength runners and kickers.

I expect Jakob to be in a second or two better shape, and I'm not even saying it will work. I'm just saying given what he knows now, when will Jakob make his move?

Had this convo with one of my best friends the other day talking about peak Morceli (93-95) vs peak El G (97-99). Morceli was absolutely unbeatable if it came down to the final 500m - nobody had the ability to blow up fields from 1100-1400m like he did - a lot of those 50.X/51.X laps he closed out championships with he was just cruising in the final 100.

El G of course famously won an Olympics with a 1.46.8 final 800m - and that wasn't even in his prime. Seville was probably the signature win of his career - 3.27.65 just blowing the doors off everyone - yes he had some help in the opening laps from Kaouch (1.52.15) but nobody was beating him that day, that was maybe the easiest sub 3.28 in history.

So the question was exactly this - at what point did El G have to put the squeeze on Morceli to blunt that final 400m assault. For me it was that critical stretch between 700 and 900m (800-600 to go) and the earlier the better - if he left it any later Morceli would have the wheels to beat him.

For Jakob he doesn't even have the speed of El G (but has superior endurance) - I think that Jakob can survive a slightly off-tempo opening 400 (say 57/58) but from that point on it needs to be a low 1.50 next 800m and a 40.high/41.low close. Here is what I think is the key to beating Kerr - you can't let him regather during a race. He has this awesome ability to almost catch his breath running 56.5-57.0 pace even off a quick. If you let him have even a 300m stretch like that he will make you pay in the final stages. One J.I turns the screws he just needs to be good enough to never let off - he needs to keep Josh right at or just above his threshold.

So in short - I think it needs to be from 1100 out at the latest.

Jakob needs to recruit Nordas to run 2:45 for the first 1200m. That’s his only shot,

One thing I noticed in the last 100m was that Kerr seemed to be watching the stadium video board and only putting in the effort needed to hold Jakob off. Many hot takes are assuming that Jakob was close to Kerr so that was encouraging for Jakob. But they are discounting the fact that Kerr was not all out at the end.

Im hoping Jakob wins Olympics. Perhaps rounds and a drive from 700 out will be what helps Jakob get across first. If Olympics were a 1 race final I think Kerr wins in almost any situation.

The absolute state of this board. Should be permabanned for being this stupid.

the last lap was 53.2 or 53.3. they were kicking.

Almost all competitive races are a matchup between speed and strength. Instead of asking a stupid question, you can view countless of videos of races a world classs level, to form your own opinion of what Ingebrigtsen should do. The only thing we know for sure, is that by 1300m, he will have put the maximum stress he is capable of, on the other runners.

If someone like Cheruiyot, sets a hot pace, Jakob will hang on, and try to pass him from about 200m out. If successful, Kerr or a “Next Guy” might not have enough left to run him down and that’s a very possible outcome in that scenario.

Clearly, there are multiple scenarios that could unfold, but as Jakob stands in the tunnel at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, one thought will dominate his mind: if no one else pushes the pace or takes the lead by 'x' meters out then he will take the lead and try and drive it home from there.

Simple question. Just solve for 'x'.

Agree. He believes he can win that way and attributes the times it didn’t work to tactical errors and illness. I don’t think there will be much strategy expect trying to run the legs off of everyone.

All this speculation is interesting but they all have to make the final first. There's always someone that screws up in the rounds.

Kerr is nothing like unbeatable in the last 400 or even the last 100. You all talk as if he was a 1:43 guy but he is an unimpressive 1:45 guy, and they both closed the same way. Granted Kerr led the last 600 but that just proves he is in better shape right now, not that he has a better kick.

Jakob just need to be in better shape and draft as much as possible.

Basically the exact same race as last week mile but being in 3.26/27 fitness instead of 3.29/3.30. Without Kerr, Jakob would have finished in 3.46, so far from his best level.

I actually think this race is a pretty good outcome for Jakob as he isn't the only one with a target on the back now.

Kerr isn't the fastest in the field so he also has to push the pace to avoid Wightman, Habz or even Laros kicking better in a slow race.

That could help Jakob.

Yes, send that message to Nordås and he will have his laugh of the decade!

As if Nordas gives af what Jakob wants.

If he's doing this then the pace is slow and Wightman will eat both of them up.

Kerr and Nuguse also want a fast race to secure top 3. They might take the lead if the pace is slow. Jakob isn't the guy behind whom everybody sits anymore.

If nobody wants to lead, then yes, Jakob need to start from 600m to go.