US Olympic Women's 1500 Team: A Sweep for Team New Balance Boston?

Great analysis. Coogan is likely the best women’s middle distance coach at the pro level in the country. A healthy ESP will be unbeatable at the Trials in the 1500 and the 5000. Hiltz has been strong all year and should make the team. Once we see Cory McGee, MacKay and Sinclaire Johnson today and at Pre we will have a good idea of who will also make the 1500 team.

It's all starting to smell a little fishy to me.

Purrier - Gives birth in March 2023, then runs an American indoor record in the mile in Feb 2024, 4 seconds faster than any American ever. And then wins gold in the 3000m at the World Indoor Championships in another American record, 5 seconds faster than any other American has ever run (Monson) and beating two world record holders: Gudaf Tsegay (WR 5000m) and Beatrice Chepkoech (WR Steeplechase).

Mackay - In 2022, had a PB of 4:08.97, was eliminated in the heats at NCAA Indoors and was 6th at NCAA outdoors. In 2023 jumped to 3:59.99 but could still only manage a 7th at USATF Indoor and an 8th at USATF Outdoor. Then in 2024 suddenly pops off a bronze medal at the World Indoor Championships by beating Diribe Welteji (3:53.93 #12 all-time) and crushing Birke Haylom (3:53.22 #10 all-time).

MacLean - Makes the Olympic team in 2021, wins USATF Indoors and later runs 3:58.76 in 2022, and then can only manage a 4:05.29 in 2023. In 2024, goes from 4:14 on March to 4:08 on April 13 to 4:02 on May 17. Quite the progression. Is sub-4 happening next? Will she also beat Tsegay, Welteji, and Haylom?

New Balance Boston is starting to remind me of when Bowerman Track Club's Schweizer, Houlihan, and Quigley (!) all crushed Shalane Flanagan's indoor 3000m record in the same race in Feb 2020. And then, of course, Houlihan tests positive in December and Quigley heads for the hills.

These aren't college girls like Valby or Wiley having a jump in performance due to youth. They are aged 29, 26, and 28.

Correction: St Pierre broke her own indoor mile record which she set in 2021 at Milrose by only a tenth of a second this year. Her PB in the 1500 is from the Trials in 2021. She placed second in the 3000 at the indoor World Championship in 2022 and first this year. She made the US World team in the 5000 in 2019. You make it sound like she has come out of nowhere in 2024.

You’re putting way too much stock in Haylom and Welteji who bombed at World Indoors. Georgia Bell ended up beating both of them too.

Serious question: If that you're jaded about elite performances, why follow the sport?

Coogan and his crew are among the least likely dopers, just like Meb was when he won Boston, NYC, and Olympic silver. It is possible to reach the top clean.

For pro runners it is when in Rome or go home. But yes people are being naive.

14:34.12

4:02.49

4:00.08

Not buying it. Burrito Track Club 2.0. Just ridiculous.

Solid 1500 outdoor opener today for MacKay.

From last place early on, moved through crowd to finish 5th, just 0.09 sec off her pr.

Soundly beat rivals McGee & Jones with Schlachtenhaufen well back.

However, barely ahead of Sinclaire Johnson who now looks like the Sinclaire Johnson of 2022. Her 4:13 season opener at Payton Jordan last month seems, at this point, irrelevant.

The odds of ESP-MacKay-MacLean sweeping the Trials is likely not good. Nonetheless, still a viable scenario.

As for how ESP stacks up against the best in the world outside of Kipyegon, we'll know by a week from now following her race at Pre against Hull, Muir and all the Ethiopians.

Tainted fish?

breakthrough is not that different from OAC. So it's actually Burrito Track Club 3.0.

I agree Heather's trajectory is baffling. I thought she was injured last year. According to WA, she only ran three races last summer. As I recall, she was supposed to run a couple of DLs before USAs, and then scratched. Does anyone know the details?

Found out after USAs last year she had a couple of leg stress reactions which ended her summer races as well as this year's indoor season:

OAC joins the thread

Absolutely. OAC is always sus. Example- Andrews’ 5K (2020- 15:57, 2021- 14:51) and 1500 (2019- 4:15 , 2020- 3:59). Right!

but she wasn’t with OAC at that time.

True. But still, an OAC athlete now. Baffling trajectory.

I don’t find her 2023 or 2024 baffling given she’s a 3:58 runner. Last year she was injured and barely raced. This year it seems she’s run sparely as she gets into form ahead of a planned peak at USATF. Not everyone plans to peak like top collegians in November, in March, in June (early and late). Now that is baffling.

There is nothing baffling about a young high schooler or collegiate on an upward performance trajectory, or entering an injury cycle(s).

Does ESP have the speed to win a 1500m medal? I kinda wonder. She is obviously more than strong enough. Stronger than Welteji, Muir, Mageean or Chepchirchir. All of them though have 1:56-1:58 speed and can go out in 2:03-5 and survive. ESP is the outlier (Hull is similar) with supreme strength but lacking that sort of speed.