May of course be a little too fantastic, but Jakob might be back, and Nordås are saying his aerobic capacity is extremely extremely better than last year, and Almgren has now the strength (sub 27 and was only one sec behind Kandie in the half -Barega, Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha f.ex not that close) and he has the speed resources -48.33 as a 16 years old…
1500m: Jakob + Nordås. -The latter ran 3.29 twice last year, and had the fastest last lap both times. Maybe his aerobic improvement has given him a lift in the 1500m as well..?
Nordas says a lot of things. His Budapest 5000 was pathetic. I'll be surprised to see him in the top 5.
Of course both Nordås and Almgren would be a stretch. And yes, the former’s Budapest 5000m was pathetic. But he was marked of his unexpected 1500m bronze and all the fuzz afterwards, and also suffered from the hot weather (has a below average tolerance)…
I’m not saying Nordås and Almgren have closed the gap to their contenders time wise, but they may both be very fast finishers.
Nordas says a lot of things. His Budapest 5000 was pathetic. I'll be surprised to see him in the top 5.
This thing about yapping -I agree in that. But Jakob and Josh also yap, and few will rule them out just because of that. I like yapping (obviously), because we get a lot of interesting information. F.ex Kerr’s yapping of himself being the best and having a 3.27 in him despite having done almost nothing (just a bronze and a WC win, ha,ha) -I wondered then if it could be that he really felt the improvement was on it’s way, and yes: The indoor season confirmed this like heck…
Nordås may have huge potential in the longer runs. Why wouldn’t he. And who knows what a 1.45 mid man (Almgren) can do in the two last laps of a 10k…
And Jakob’s yapping about a long period of alternative training (because of injury) as something that can release a new potential. -Who knows if he is right…
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
May of course be a little too fantastic, but Jakob might be back, and Nordås are saying his aerobic capacity is extremely extremely better than last year, and Almgren has now the strength (sub 27 and was only one sec behind Kandie in the half -Barega, Gebrhiwet, Kejelcha f.ex not that close) and he has the speed resources -48.33 as a 16 years old…
1500m: Jakob + Nordås. -The latter ran 3.29 twice last year, and had the fastest last lap both times. Maybe his aerobic improvement has given him a lift in the 1500m as well..?
The half marathon datapoint you are using is flawed. Kandie was cruising for one thing, and for another he was seemingly in far worse shape than when he ran his Valencia time. He'd run a solid marathon in Valencai after, and then had some struggles in domestic races in Kenya. At his best, he's not losing in low-key XC races in Kenya (which he was). So he managed that victory in the Half probably at 85% fitness.
Almgren certainly now should be expected to be a competitive second-packer in the 5,000 like Nordas (capable of low-mid 12:50s), but there's no reason to believe he is in 12:4x shape or would be fighting for a medal. All bets are off I suppose if the Ethiopians botch the tactics for the 3rd straight time, but given Nordas' track record in global 5000s should we be counting on him?
Thought I read somewhere that he was doubling, and then it have to be 5/10k… But maybe he himself doesn’t know for sure, either, yet… He’s not bad in the 1500m, but having a pb of 3.32.00 doesn’t make the event a natural choice.
He is running the 10k in the european championship (since he could win a race without Jakob).
Almgren mentioned in interviews already last year that he could run 3.30 in the 1500 if he trained primarily for that event. He doesn’t want to run the 1500 in euros/olympics though, since - unless you are Jakob and are better than everyone else - almost anything can happen - you could fall/ have to deal with a lot of other runners that interupts your race - and you might not make it to the final.
The half marathon datapoint you are using is flawed. Kandie was cruising for one thing, and for another he was seemingly in far worse shape than when he ran his Valencia time. He'd run a solid marathon in Valencai after, and then had some struggles in domestic races in Kenya. At his best, he's not losing in low-key XC races in Kenya (which he was). So he managed that victory in the Half probably at 85% fitness.
Almgren certainly now should be expected to be a competitive second-packer in the 5,000 like Nordas (capable of low-mid 12:50s), but there's no reason to believe he is in 12:4x shape or would be fighting for a medal. All bets are off I suppose if the Ethiopians botch the tactics for the 3rd straight time, but given Nordas' track record in global 5000s should we be counting on him?
You seem to be well informed and right in your reasoning about the Half (I wondered myself why Kandie didn’t do better than 59 low in that race). And I really like that you are so up to date when it comes to African runners. They have really deserved this..!
If we were discussing two other athletes with similar pb’s to Nordås and Almgren I would have agreed with your reasoning. But these two are so inconsistent and unpredictable and somewhat outliers that a 5000m estimate is really really difficult. -Fortunately; because that makes the whole thing exciting…
If the 5000m had been the first event in Budapest, and it had been cooler (may be so in Paris), I wouldn’t been surprised if Nordås had been up there with Jakob and Katir… And it may sound weird, but I wouldn’t rule out that the guy who hasn’t run a good 5000m in his life is more talented there than in the 1500m..! (Historically he has (pre 2023) been best in the 3000m, even if one can’t confirm this from his times (I have seen some of these, with blistering last laps). But the guy has to find out how “to be a friend with the distance” -If things had loosened up in 2023 I wouldn’t be surprised if he was sub 12.50 even then. And now -who knows..?
Almgren has run 13.01. So yes, your estimates here might be sound. -I know it’s a long time since he set his pb’s in the 4/800m (and under a different training regime) but one wonder what a not too tired, fast guy, can do with 300m left to run…
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
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