Yes
Yes
yes.
rojo wrote:
. . . Fisher is 1-5 again Cheptegei and 0-4 against Kiplimo in his life. Other than them, he's got decent head to head records against most of the top guys. He's 4-4 against Aregawi, 4-5 against Barega, 4-3 vs Kejelcha and 4-0 against Ebenyo who won WC silver this year. So there are basically two guys he never beats and then it's a coin toss against 3 or 4 others.Odds are low.
Excellent stats from the Elias Sports Bureau of distance running.
Good one.
Probably Grant's best race was his 4th/10k at the Eugene '22 WC.
Rewatch the race below, starting at around 28:00 to catch the last two laps.
Notice that Grant was 5th in a group of 8 at the bell, one place ahead of Kiplimo, lost ground on the backstretch, then sprinted home to catch Barega for 4th and was inching so close to Kiplimo for the bronze.
And, he was not a prisoner of lane 1, moving out to gain position and pass people a couple of times.
Presuming Grant is stronger and faster now, two years later, he simply needs to stay right with the leaders throughout the entire last lap, not allowing any gaps to form, then kick like hell down the homestretch.
Substitute Kejelcha for Worku, the upcoming Paris race may look just like 2022.
Like rojo states above, "the odds are low" for gold. However, given how close everyone is to each other, the odds are low for everyone else as well.
Thus, I would posit that Grant's chances for Gold, Silver, or Bronze are just as good -- or bad -- as everyone else's.
michiganrunner58 wrote:
I envision 3rd 4th or 5th. All about positioning. He doesn't have that extra gear, explosive speed of the big kickers. I envision him more catching a guy or two in the last 50m because they went for the gold like Prefontaine did in 72. Fisher will be more like Ian Stewart who snuck in for the bronze
Agree with lots being said in this thread. Chances for medal solid, gold slim. Lots of A studs, so chances someone winding it up the last laps are strong, which plays into his hands.
He was jogging the ten, xept for the last 100. Breathing through his nose all the way.