Given his current trajectory, Nico Young should be in about 25:47 shape when the gun goes off. Grant Fisher is running for silver.
We can't know what the future holds, but Nico may already have run all of his PRs and Fisher too. Or maybe one or both get faster. Nico just won the NCAA 3k/5k indoor double and set the College 5k and 10k records. His kick has dramatically improved at the same time. He made a giant leap forward. Expecting another giant leap quickly is probably wishful thinking.
Fisher is the best kicker of US distance runners right now and he just showed that he owns Nico over the last 200m. He can also run a truly world class 5k and 10k race time (Saturday's The Ten was NOT his PR). That makes him a medal contender. In the right type of race, he could win the Olympics. Any medal would be a great result, though.
I think Fisher is good enough to win or be a medalist. I think he could probably get into the 26:20’s, maybe faster. I also think there are others who can as well though. Fisher is a time trialist. I suspect some East Africans would run just as fast in those types of races. all that to say, Fisher and his coaches need a specific plan for how to win and they better have been working on it for a while now, because the type of race Fisher excels in is also the type other runners do too.
Farah and to some extent Rupp, trained for YEARS to win gold-silver in London. They worked on fast reps at the end of workouts and even races. They decided they couldn’t time trial with the super studs, so they decided to specify in 50-second closing laps. Farah won this way a lot, and his competitors knew he could do it…they respected him, so they tried to grind away earlier but he was good enough to hang..but you could see him suffering way more in those long fast races. Centro knew he couldn’t run 3:28 with the studs he beat in Rio. So he worked on a different tactic and it worked. He didn’t just think, “hmm, in the final I’ll just run 50.low and beat everyone”, he worked at it for a long time.
I just don’t see Fisher with a “different” strategy yet. Just a, “ get super fit and run as fast as possible” one. I don’t think he wins that way right now.
Fisher is away from Jerry Schumacher’s self serving environment.
Therefore, I believe his kick will improve, his training will improve, his living arrangements will improve, his disposition will improve. All of which has improved; thus he has a better shot at medaling then he would have staying at BTC under Jerry Schumacher.
I think as far as “OMFG” black-page US distance moments go, it’s fairly likely. He won’t be the favorite but enough people can envision him medaling that winning it all isn’t that far fetched. He gets into 12:45/26:30 shape which we basically know is possible, closes in 53-high in a ~27:00 race and nobody else runs superbly well and who knows?
He gets into 12:45/26:30 shape which we basically know is possible, closes in 53-high in a ~27:00 race and nobody else runs superbly well and who knows?
People focus on the last lap but a lot of time they are kicking at 1k. You run a 56 and follow it up with a 55, there is a different stress than trying to finish in 52.
There are going to be a half dozen guys in roughly the same shape. He has a decent chance but the odds are against it.
I think as far as “OMFG” black-page US distance moments go, it’s fairly likely. He won’t be the favorite but enough people can envision him medaling that winning it all isn’t that far fetched. He gets into 12:45/26:30 shape which we basically know is possible, closes in 53-high in a ~27:00 race and nobody else runs superbly well and who knows?
The only world-class 10k competitor Grant has yet to beat is Jacob Kiplimo. At one point or another since the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, Grant beaten Cheptegei, Kejelcha, Aregawi, Barega, Ahmed, et. al.
I would give the pre-Paris favorite nod to 3-x world champ/wr holder Cheptegei. However, at this point in the season, I would also consider Grant to be a medal favorite.
Another reason for believing so is that his last-lap kick not only appears to have improved, but appears to keeping getting faster the longer the distance.
Here are some interesting results:
2022 The TEN: 58.00 last 400 (26:33/AR final time)
2024 Millrose 2 mile: 60.24 last 440 yards (approx. 60.00 last 400) (8:03/AR final time)
2024 BU 5k: 57.94 last 400 (12:51 final time)
2024 The TEN: 56.78 last 400 (26:52 final time)
As we saw Saturday evening, Grant only started to sprint the final 100 meters.
I don't see him closing in 53s or even 54s in championship races because the wind-up to the end will start a lap or two or three earlier.
However -- in the 10k which he considers his best event -- Grant's closing speed is now where it needs to be to snag a medal. He just needs to make sure he's in good position over the final lap, which he managed perfectly Saturday night.
The only world-class 10k competitor Grant has yet to beat is Jacob Kiplimo. At one point or another since the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, Grant beaten Cheptegei, Kejelcha, Aregawi, Barega, Ahmed, et. al.
WA's Road to Paris rankings following this weekend's racing:
The difference between time trials and Olympics/Worlds is how the race is run. Time trials is usually following a constant pace/green light. In major championship, last 4 laps get faster and faster and then you have to run 53-54sec last lap. Fisher doesn't have that kick.
The difference between time trials and Olympics/Worlds is how the race is run. Time trials is usually following a constant pace/green light. In major championship, last 4 laps get faster and faster and then you have to run 53-54sec last lap. Fisher doesn't have that kick.
Fisher closed in 53.87 in Eugene ‘22; Cheptegei closed in 53.39. Fisher’s last 100m was the second fastest in the race at 13.21; Cheptegei’s last 100 was 13.20. Fisher was 0.71 seconds from the gold. He just needs to be a little fitter, a little closer to the front at the bell, and have a little luck—all easier said than done, of course.
Maybe I'm being too harsh here, but I'm not a big fan of predictions like this one. It feels like the reason you're making this prediction is so you get lots of credit if it comes true, not because you necessarily believe it.
Fisher isn't some unknown; he's been one of the best 10k runners in the world for a couple years now. He's certainly not the favorite considering Cheptegei, Barega, Aregawi, Kiplimo, etc. But since Fisher is American, he gets more attention than those guys, and so you'll get more credit if he wins than if say Daniel Ebenyo does.
A more interesting post might have laid out why you think Fisher is looking particularly good this year. Personally, I would put the chance of him winning somewhere between 1% and 10%, and I bet most people here have a similar range. Why am I wrong? If you can convince me it should be higher than 10%, I'll give you credit if the prediction pans out. (e.g. in 2016: "Centro has been 2nd and 3rd and he just won World Indoors, so don't count him out even though he was 8th last year")
Alternatively, you could post about a less popular runner we've all overlooked. e.g. Bernard Kibet, Nicolas Kimeli. Why will Jacob Krop or Haile Bekele move up and dominate? Or do you think the race will go super slow for some reason and open things up for a real dark horse (e.g. Kincaid!)
Otherwise, taking the best American runner and predicting him to win without any other commentary lacks some punch.
It's not impossible, but extremely unlikely. There are just so many other good guys. The thought of him beating every single one of them just doesn't seem realistic. Does he have a decent shot at a medal? Yes, but so do several other guys.
I think Grant will keep sticking to the "stay on the rail, stay as relaxed as possible, kick hard as you can the last 200". It did almost work out for him in 2022. I think because Grant hasn't been able to close in that 52-54 range, his best shot at world's is taking it with 800m-1k to go to where you can get away with a 56-57 and still medal. He's tried this at the US level and in US races, but never world's. I think he could medal leaving it late, but it's like playing russian roulette with the medals.
