Australian 1500m Olympic team predictions

Charlie Hunter King of Oregon

No way can you rule out Edwards. Also have Hunt and maybe even Anstey in the mix.

Myers,.Edwards, Spencer for me.

Anyone know how Ollie is coming along? I listen to Coffee Club regularly and know he's been running but I never get a sense of where he is on his comeback and I wasn't sure if he was going for the trials, since it doesn't sound like he's been working out with the other OAC guys yet.

I think Hoare is a lock. Even if he is not top two at the trials I think he will most likely be selected by the committee. He's the Commonwealth Games champ and broke the national record just last year.

My prediction is Hoare, Mcsweyn, Spencer

He said on one of the most recent Coffee Club episodes that he's back to working out with the other OAC guys now. Seemed to be in much better spirits.

McSweyn, Hoare, Myers. All in a different class from the other contenders.

Good to hear! Definitely want to see him on the team but I was getting a little concerned that he hadn't had a race yet. I guess with the committee selection he has extra time to get fit and as long as he can show he's trending back towards 3:29 he should be on that plane. I do wonder though how much guys like Myers and Spencer can distinguish themselves while OIlie's getting back. I'm also just assuming Stewy is fit and basically a lock to lead the team. Really interesting dynamic for this team!

Think it is pretty easily Hoare, McSweyn, Myers (assuming full health)

Class above the rest of the field. Yes I know some of the others have run faster times than Myers, but get Myers in a London Diamond League race hanging off the back and he will run faster than his PR based on what I have seen from his races.

Hoare seems to be back training so if he can stay healthy have no doubt he will make it.

McSweyn I haven't been impressed with last couple years but he is still a lock.

I think the Stew man is gonna raise it up a couple of notches this year.. You heard it here first.

Ollie still needs to run the time. If he does he'll likely knock out Myers at 3.33, so Myers would then need to beat Spencer's 3.31.81.

OR....and this is my tip, Myers wins Nationals so gets the auto Q. Then Ollie needs to beat 3.31.8 and that might be tricky.

We all love Stewy, but the guy can't kick and it just blows any chance of medalling so I'd rather he go up to 5km and let Ollie, Spencer, Myers take the 1500m.

What about the women?

Hull, Hall, Caldwell a lock? Wouldn't mind Hollingsworth sneaking in there. 3rd fastest (Caldwell) currently 3.59.79. At her current rate of improvement Claudia can run that...

Why would Hollingsworth get involved in the 1500 when she appears to be a lock for the 800 team?

Myers seems like a class above Spencer in terms of talent, but this year I’m not so sure. Both of them got in one DL 1500 last year: Spencer ran 3:31.81 in a 3:30.44 race; Myers ran 3:33.26 in a 3:27.14 race. Yes Myers can be expected to rise to a new level this year but it’s not clear cut between those two.

McSweyn was pretty great in ‘20/‘21 and he started 2024 on a good note with that 3:52.00 win over Myers and Wightman—but it’s hard to guess which direction his season will go. I absolutely don’t think he should opt for the 5k (his interests, not an Aussie fan base’s). He’s a rhythm runner whose ideal distance is probably ~2k, and his best (only conceivable) chance at a medal or even a top 5 finish is returning to 3:29 form and feeling good in a fast 1500 final.

Very likely to be between the “big 4” of Hoare/McSweyn/Myers/Spencer IMO. It’s way too early for me to guess who’ll be the odd man out.

Women's 800 in Paris is day 2, 4, 6.

The 1500 is day 6, 8, 10.

Possibility of a 8/15 double? Claudia would probably not progress past the 800 semis...

1. Rank Mark Competitor Nat Venue Date Results Score
   1 3:29.41 Oliver HOARE AUS Bislett Stadion, Oslo (NOR) 15 Jun 2023 1253
2. 2 3:31.42 Stewart MCSWEYN AUS Olympic Stadium, London (GBR) 23 Jul 2023 1225
3. 3 3:31.81 Adam SPENCER AUS Olympic Stadium, London (GBR) 23 Jul 2023 1219
4. 4 3:33.26 Cameron MYERS AUS Stadion Śląski, Chorzów (POL) 16 Jul 2023 1199
5. 5 3:33.64 Jesse HUNT AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 22 Feb 2024 1193
6. 6 3:34.42 Jye EDWARDS AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 22 Feb 2024 1183
7. 7 3:34.52 Peter BOL AUS Stade Raymond Troussier, Decines (FRA) 08 Jul 2023 1181
8. 8 3:35.14 Callum DAVIES AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 22 Feb 2024 1173
9. 9 3:35.52 Matthew RAMSDEN AUS Zdzisław Krzyszkowiak Stadium, Bydgoszcz (POL) 06 Jun 2023 1167
10. 10 3:36.19 Connor WHITELEY AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 22 Feb 2024 1158
11. 11 3:36.52 Jack ANSTEY AUS Boston Univ. Track & Tennis Center, Boston, MA (USA) (i) 03 Feb 2024 1206
12. 12 3:37.50 Jackson SHARP AUS Tooting Bec Athletics Track, London (GBR) 26 Jul 2023 1140
13. 13 3:37.56 James HANSEN AUS Stedelijke Atletiekpiste, Ninove (BEL) 22 Jul 2023 1139
14. 14 3:37.77 Jude THOMAS AUS SA Athletic Stadium, Adelaide (AUS) 10 Feb 2024 1137
15. 15 3:37.79 Jack BRUCE AUS Stadio G. Teghil, Lignano Sabbiadoro (ITA) 14 Jul 2023 1136
16. 16 3:37.96 Benjamin THOMAS AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 22 Feb 2024 1134
17. 17 3:38.48 Charlie HUNTER AUS Drake Stadium, Los Angeles, CA (USA) 27 May 2023 1127
18. 18 3:39.39 Williams LEWIS AUS SA Athletic Stadium, Adelaide (AUS) 10 Feb 2024 1115
19. 19 3:39.49 Tomas PALFREY AUS Mt. Hood Community College, Gresham, OR (USA) 04 Jun 2023 1113
20. 20 3:40.07 Sam BLAKE AUS TSV Stadion, Pfungstadt (GER) 06 Sep 2023 1106
21. 21 3:40.21 Rorey HUNTER AUS Stade Raymond Troussier, Decines (FRA) 08 Jul 2023 1104
22. 22 3:40.23 Duncan MILLER AUS Boston Univ. Track & Tennis Center, Boston, MA (USA) (i) 10 Feb 2023 1154
23. 23 3:40.62 Alexander STITT AUS Hornet Stadium - Sac St., Sacramento, CA (USA) 26 May 2023 1098
24. 24 3:40.84 Luke SHAW AUS SA Athletic Stadium, Adelaide (AUS) 10 Feb 2024 1095
25. 25 3:40.89 Max SHERVINGTON AUS SA Athletic Stadium, Adelaide (AUS) 10 Feb 2024 1095
26. 26 3:41.76 Jason CLAYTON AUS Cougar Athletic Stadium, Azusa, CA (USA) 15 Apr 2023 1083
27. 27 3:41.96 Matthew HUSSEY AUS Queensland Sport and Athletics Centre, Nathan, Brisbane (AUS) 01 Apr 2023 1080
28. 28 3:42.00 Toby GILLEN AUS Cougar Athletic Stadium, Azusa, CA (USA) 15 Apr 2023 1080
29. 29 3:42.56 Matthew CLARKE AUS Hagenauer Reserve, Box Hill, Melbourne (AUS) 24 Jan 2023 1072
30. 30 3:42.78 Matthew RANKIN AUS Boston Univ. Track & Tennis Center, Boston, MA (USA) (i) 26 Feb 2023 1118
31. 31 3:42.80 Lachlan HERD AUS Queensland Sport and Athletics Centre, Nathan, Brisbane (AUS) 01 Apr 2023 1069
32. 32 3:42.81 Jaryd CLIFFORD AUS Hagenauer Reserve, Box Hill, Melbourne (AUS) 24 Jan 2023 1069
33. 33 3:42.85 Ethan WYATT-SMITH AUS Queensland Sport and Athletics Centre, Nathan, Brisbane (AUS) 01 Apr 2023 1069
34. 34 3:42.86 Jhye HADFIELD AUS AIS Athletics Track, Canberra (AUS) 02 Mar 2024 1068
35. 35 3:42.99 Ky ROBINSON AUS Hilmer Lodge Stadium, Walnut, CA (USA) 14 May 2023 1067
36. 36 3:43.00 Joseph DENG AUS AIS Athletics Track, Canberra (AUS) 27 Jan 2024 1067
37. 37 3:43.06 Luke BURROWS AUS WA Sports Centre, Perth (AUS) 12 Jan 2024 1066
38. 38 3:43.67 Kang NYOAK AUS Cougar Athletic Stadium, Azusa, CA (USA) 15 Apr 2023 1058
39. 39 3:43.92 Oliver RAIMOND AUS Franklin Field, Philadelphia, PA (USA) 27 Apr 2023 1054
40. 40 3:43.96 Patrick CANTLON AUS Boston Univ. Track & Tennis Center, Boston, MA (USA) (i) 03 Feb 2024 1102
41. 41 3:44.09 Isaac HEYNE AUS SA Athletic Stadium, Adelaide (AUS) 04 Mar 2023 1052
42. 42 3:44.09 Sam CLIFFORD AUS Queensland Sport and Athletics Centre, Nathan, Brisbane (AUS) 01 Apr 2023 1052
43. 43 3:44.49 Cameron MUSGROVE AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 22 Feb 2024 1047
44. 44 3:44.52 Andre WARING AUS Hagenauer Reserve, Box Hill, Melbourne (AUS) 21 Dec 2023 1047
45. 45 3:44.54 Matthew SCARR AUS Matthes-Hopkins Track Complex, Lynchburg, VA (USA) 03 May 2023 1046
46. 46 3:44.95 Joshua PHILLIPS AUS Sportcentrum Wembley, Kortrijk (BEL) 08 Jul 2023 1041
47. 47 3:45.22 Daniel WILLIAMS AUS Queensland Sport and Athletics Centre, Nathan, Brisbane (AUS) 24 Feb 2024 1038
48. 48 3:45.29 Angus BEER AUS Sportcity Regional Arena, Manchester (GBR) 27 May 2023 1037
49. 49 3:45.40 Thomas DAVIES AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 22 Feb 2024 1035
50. 50 3:45.41 Wolfgang COTRA-NEMESI AUS Hagenauer Reserve, Box Hill, Melbourne (AUS) 09 Mar 2023 1035
51. 51 3:45.45 Harrison MARTINENKO AUS UVA Lanningan Field, Charlottesville, VA (USA) 21 Apr 2023 1035
52. 52 3:45.60 Thomas MOORCROFT AUS WA Sports Centre, Perth (AUS) 24 Feb 2024 1033
53. 53 3:45.75 Archie NOAKES AUS Hagenauer Reserve, Box Hill, Melbourne (AUS) 24 Jan 2023 1031
54. 54 3:45.76 Benjamin JAGGER AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 22 Feb 2024 1031
55. 55 3:45.86 Samuel FIELD AUS Boston Univ. Track & Tennis Center, Boston, MA (USA) (i) 10 Feb 2023 1077
56. 56 3:45.92 Ben BUCKINGHAM AUS Tom Kelly Athletics Track, Doncaster, Melbourne (AUS) 16 Mar 2023 1028
57. 57 3:46.10 Stefan MUSIC AUS The Crest Athletics Centre, Bankstown, Sydney (AUS) 23 Mar 2023 1026

worldathletics.org

Road To | World Athletics

Open link

After talking to Adam Spencer and looking into it, it seems that finishing top 2 at Trials doesn't necessarily do squat unless they like you as they total "absolute discretion." Their selection criteria document is a nightmare.

letsrun.com

2024 NCAA Indoors: Nico Young Sweeps 3K/5K as Luke Houser Repeats in Mile

LetsRun.com

Nico Young dominated for the second night in a row, Luke Houser repeated in the mile and Rivaldo Marshall got the surprise win in the 800.

Open link

So they basically have a bad-faith trials system. I think this is the worst possible of all worlds. Why not just do the Japanese system and send the top 2 but dangle a lofty time (sub-3:30) to unseat the 3rd finisher?

I'm picking Jye Edwards to win the trial and create a real nightmare for the selectors (which is created by the system). And they end up selecting whoever they like and ignore the trials results .