Going off the last 2 years, World Athletics ranks Kipchoge is currently still the #1 in the world after Kiptum. Yes, it's probably safe to say that he's declining now, but since early 2022, he has these 5 results: 2:02:40 for 1st in Tokyo 2022, 2:01:09 for 1st in Berlin 2022, 2:09:23 for 6th in Boston 2023, 2:02:42 for 1st in Berlin 2023, and 2:06:50 for 10th in Tokyo 2024.
He's clearly on the decline, yes, but let's break down all the other 8 athletes still in contention for a spot. Kipchoge is arguably still a better marathoner than these 7 by any reasonable metric other than their performance in their single most recent marathon:
1. Cyprian Kotut (1st at Hamburg 2022 in 2:04:47, 6th at Amsterdam 2022 in 2:05:15, 2nd at Amsterdam 2023 in 2:04:34). Hasn't ever finished a major (DNF London 2014), hasn't broken 2:04:30, and has been marathoning for a decade+, so it's unlikely he's going to have a sudden breakout at this point.
2. Amos Kipruto (2nd at Tokyo 2022 in 2:03:13, 1st at London 2022 in 2:04:39, DNF at London 2023, 7th at Berlin 2023 in 2:04:49). Has fast times, but his best is several minutes slower than Kipchoge's best, his best ever is still slower than 3 of Kipchoge's last 5, has 2 relatively poor showings in the last 4 starts, and hasn't run a great marathon since 2022.
3. Titus Kipruto (1st at Milan 2022 in 2:05:05, 19th at Eldoret City 2022 in 2:18:13 -- yes a week later and at altitude, 2nd at Amsterdam 2022 in 2:04:54, 4th at Tokyo 2023 in 2:05:32, 8th at World Champs 2023 in 2:10:47, 20th at Valencia 2023 in 2:07:22) Has barely broken 2:05, well off the podium in a championship marathon, and half of his showings in the last 2 years are rather poor for someone looking for an Olympic spot.
4. Geoffrey Kamworor (18th at Boston 2022 in 2:11:49, 5th at World Champs 2022 in 2:07:14, 2nd at London 2023 in 2:04:23) Hasn't really shown up to what we'd expect from him in the marathon. Quite poor showing at Boston, didn't quite put it together at World Champs, and one good showing at London for 2nd. Hasn't broken 2:04.
5. Bernard Kiprop Koech (4th at Chicago 2022 in 2:07:15, 1st in Hamburg 2023 in 2:04:09). Has been in marathoning for 11 years and still hasn't broken 2:04. Doesn't really have a single major standout performance.
6. Vincent Kipkemoi Ng'etich (only 2 marathons ever with 2nd behind Kipchoge at Berlin 2023 in 2:03:13, and 3rd at Tokyo 2024 ahead of Kipchoge in 2:04:18). This 6th one is the one that could be argued to potentially have better odds to perform better, but he's still quite unproven.
7. Timothy Kiplagat (7th at Barcelona 2022 in 2:07:23, 1st at Melbourne 2022 in 2:09:12, 1st at Abu Dhabi 2022 in 2:05:20, 2nd at Rotterdam 2023 in 2:03:50, 13th at World Champs 2023 in 2:11:25, 2nd at Tokyo 2024 in 2:02:55). Yes, Kiplagat is coming off a big breakthrough, but 2/3 of his recent times are over 2:05, 1/2 are over 2:07, and he blew it in World Champs. On a good day for him and a moderate day for Kipchoge, he might beat Kipchoge, but odds have to be in Kipchoge's favor.
All that remains is 1:
1. Benson Kipruto (3rd at Boston 2022 in 2:07:27, 1st at Chicago 2022 in 2:04:24, 3rd at Boston 2023 in 2:06:06, 2nd at Chicago 2023 in 2:04:02, 1st at Tokyo 2024 in 2:02:16). It's not really possible to argue that Kipchoge is better than Benson Kipruto at this point. Two 1sts, one 2nd, and two 3rds in 5 majors with a 2:02 low and <2:04:30 in all 3 races that aren't Boston is very strong. He's the top pick at this point by any standard.
All of this said, Kipchoge is my 2nd pick based on merit alone in the last 2 years. If Evans Chebet were on the list, he would unquestionably rank higher than Kipchoge for me, but he's not on the list, and even with him there, Kipchoge would still be the 3rd highest pick.