All the three are superstars, but who will shine the brightest? I think Nathan Green could mix in with this group as well potentially and maybe Sahlman too if Mike Smith continues his stellar progression of him
Really based on opinion, each have shown their medaling potential and great racing over their careers. If you want to be technical, Hobbs is the youngest (still only 20 years old), so he may have the brightest future considering how well he is running thus far. Nuguse has ran the fastest times and holds the American record in the indoor mile, indoor 3k and outdoor 1500m. Hocker has placed the highest in the Olympics of any with a 3:31 and 6th place when he was 20 years old in Tokyo.
I love Hobbs and Cole. I think they are phenomenal athletes. But I think either of them ever reaching the level Nuguse has hit, as far as times go, would be an incredible achievement, much less significantly surpassing him. 3:43 in the mile is INCREDIBLE. That's the closest an American has been to the world record in what, 40-50 years? He could never beat that for the rest of his career and he would still go down as an all-time great. And he's still fairly young, I actually do expect him to beat it (or at least a faster converted 1500). 3:26 is well within the realm of possibility for him.
Medals are a different story. Hocker in particular has the kick and killer instinct to get some medals on the global stage. A 1:48 close with a 25-low at the end is not only possible, but something he's already done. That is going to get a medal every single time, and it puts a gold within reach. He seems to be in closer to 3:28-3:29 fitness now, which paired with his kick could definitely result in some hardware over the coming years. Staying healthy with a higher training volume (something he was not used to coming into the pro scene) is going to be the key for him. I do not see him ever running 3:26. But 3:28, a gold medal, and 3+ total outdoor medals would put him close to the level of 3:43 or even a potential 3:26 from Nuguse. That's a lot to ask though, even from him.
Kessler is the hardest to predict, really. Youth phenoms are always a bit of a tossup. 3:34 at 18 is certainly the most impressive American junior performance since Alan Webb or Jim Ryun. 2:16 at 19, also impressive. 3:48i and a world indoor bronze at 20 indicates he is continuing to trend upward, a good sign. But once again: if he ever runs as fast as Nuguse has currently, I would consider his career to be a wild success. And while he does have a solid kick, it's not the blistering speed needed to medal outdoors. However, I also have the most trust in Warhurst to get him there. Of the three coaches, he has seen the most global middle distance success, and I think Kessler will see that success one day.
TL;DR: Nuguse current fitness might be better than either of the other two will ever get to, but Kessler has the highest ceiling and could end up with the best of both worlds; the fitness of Nuguse with the kick of Hocker. Kessler it is.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Idk that Kessler or Hocker will ever run 3:43 or an equivalent. But part of me still thinks one of them will end up with a better overall career. Hocker’s season where he beat Nuguse in the NCAA final and Hobbs general talent and age are hard to ignore.
I understand the arguments for all. Nuguse is already at all-time fitness, Hocker prodigious ability from a young age. However - I just have this feeling that Hocker is going to end up having the best career when it's all said and done. He's a baller and definitely seems the most competitive - and people discount he has run a 3:30 PR in a global final coming off an injury. Could be wrong and wouldn't be surprised at other outcomes but I'm gonna go out and predict Hocker.
Either way - as a younger person it's awesome to see American 1500m running be genuinely world class. When I got into the sport in the 2010's it was a bit demoralizing seeing how far behind we were and kind of made you feel like you yourself were inferior in talent just because you were from America. Now it almost feels like anything is possible in the 2020's.
I understand the arguments for all. Nuguse is already at all-time fitness, Hocker prodigious ability from a young age. However - I just have this feeling that Hocker is going to end up having the best career when it's all said and done. He's a baller and definitely seems the most competitive - and people discount he has run a 3:30 PR in a global final coming off an injury. Could be wrong and wouldn't be surprised at other outcomes but I'm gonna go out and predict Hocker.
Either way - as a younger person it's awesome to see American 1500m running be genuinely world class. When I got into the sport in the 2010's it was a bit demoralizing seeing how far behind we were and kind of made you feel like you yourself were inferior in talent just because you were from America. Now it almost feels like anything is possible in the 2020's.
Yared is most talented and so kind... I do think Yared's achilles heal is race tactics in huge races... if he adjust and runs smart in huge races like Kerr. Who has in the biggest moments. Yared is probably the most talented miler in the world physically but not yet mentally.
Either way - as a younger person it's awesome to see American 1500m running be genuinely world class. When I got into the sport in the 2010's it was a bit demoralizing seeing how far behind we were and kind of made you feel like you yourself were inferior in talent just because you were from America. Now it almost feels like anything is possible in the 2020's.
When in the 2010s did you get into the sport? Because we had men's medalists in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2016; women's medalists in 2011, 2013, 2016, and 2017. Two of those medals were gold. Beijing and Doha were the only championships we didn't get a medalist. While in the 2020s we haven't had a single outdoor medalist yet.
Don't get me wrong, there are some great American talents right now, but the talent in the 2010s was equally great, and 2007-2017 was the most successful period of American middle distance running ever, including the modern day.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Either way - as a younger person it's awesome to see American 1500m running be genuinely world class. When I got into the sport in the 2010's it was a bit demoralizing seeing how far behind we were and kind of made you feel like you yourself were inferior in talent just because you were from America. Now it almost feels like anything is possible in the 2020's.
When in the 2010s did you get into the sport? Because we had men's medalists in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2016; women's medalists in 2011, 2013, 2016, and 2017. Two of those medals were gold. Beijing and Doha were the only championships we didn't get a medalist. While in the 2020s we haven't had a single outdoor medalist yet.
Don't get me wrong, there are some great American talents right now, but the talent in the 2010s was equally great, and 2007-2017 was the most successful period of American middle distance running ever, including the modern day.
The mid-2010's. The only major medal at the time really was the Centro gold - and that just felt more like a fluke - a really bizzarre wire to wire 3:50. Not discrediting it it just felt surreal and anomalous, when 3:26 Asbel Kiprop seemingly magically faded to dust.
Extremely good question and glad we get to see it play out!
Kessler is obviously an unbelievable talent but we'll need to see if he can develop a world class kick from 100 meters out.
Hocker just proved that at the moment, he has a slightly faster gear than Kessler coming to the line.
Neguse currently has the most complete package.
Kessler probably has a higher ceiling in strength than Hocker, Hocker might have slightly better speed, but Naguse seems to be superior at both. ...Today
When in the 2010s did you get into the sport? Because we had men's medalists in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2016; women's medalists in 2011, 2013, 2016, and 2017. Two of those medals were gold. Beijing and Doha were the only championships we didn't get a medalist. While in the 2020s we haven't had a single outdoor medalist yet.
Don't get me wrong, there are some great American talents right now, but the talent in the 2010s was equally great, and 2007-2017 was the most successful period of American middle distance running ever, including the modern day.
The mid-2010's. The only major medal at the time really was the Centro gold - and that just felt more like a fluke - a really bizzarre wire to wire 3:50. Not discrediting it it just felt surreal and anomalous, when 3:26 Asbel Kiprop seemingly magically faded to dust.
Not trying to push back on how you feel. I started following the sport closely a few years before you did (around 2010), which gave me a different perspective.
Centro's gold in 2016 was NOT a fluke. He was 3rd in 2011, 4th in 2012, 2nd in 2013, and 8th in 2015. The 2015 race was the outlier because he went for gold and didn't quite have it.
2016 was a clear step up in fitness from those other years. The World Indoor title most obviously, but he also looked REALLY good at Trials. When a guy who is already on the podium has a career year, gold is a distinct possibility.
It's true that Centro excelled in the 3:36-type races that were typical in those days. Maybe he wouldn't have done as well in the 3:29 races today. But look at the closing splits in Rio. The race was not simply a tactical masterpiece or a lucky day--Centro ran one of the all-time closes in history.
The best runner doesn't always win a championship 1500. But Centro was no fluke: he had 4 top-4 finishes at global outdoor championships!
I understand the arguments for all. Nuguse is already at all-time fitness, Hocker prodigious ability from a young age. However - I just have this feeling that Hocker is going to end up having the best career when it's all said and done. He's a baller and definitely seems the most competitive - and people discount he has run a 3:30 PR in a global final coming off an injury. Could be wrong and wouldn't be surprised at other outcomes but I'm gonna go out and predict Hocker.
Either way - as a younger person it's awesome to see American 1500m running be genuinely world class. When I got into the sport in the 2010's it was a bit demoralizing seeing how far behind we were and kind of made you feel like you yourself were inferior in talent just because you were from America. Now it almost feels like anything is possible in the 2020's.
I became a T&F in the mid 90's when I was in high school. Talk about a tough era for US mid-distance. There were some solid 800m guys, but the US 1500m squad couldn't even send 3 guys to major championships (or sometimes not even 2, I seem to remember only Jason Pyrah representing the US at an outdoor worlds one year). I 100% agree that however this shakes out between the current crop of US milers it is really exciting to watch these guys compete on a global stage. Just the idea that we could have 3 guys in the Olympic final is incredible.
The mid-2010's. The only major medal at the time really was the Centro gold - and that just felt more like a fluke - a really bizzarre wire to wire 3:50. Not discrediting it it just felt surreal and anomalous, when 3:26 Asbel Kiprop seemingly magically faded to dust.
Not trying to push back on how you feel. I started following the sport closely a few years before you did (around 2010), which gave me a different perspective.
Centro's gold in 2016 was NOT a fluke. He was 3rd in 2011, 4th in 2012, 2nd in 2013, and 8th in 2015. The 2015 race was the outlier because he went for gold and didn't quite have it.
2016 was a clear step up in fitness from those other years. The World Indoor title most obviously, but he also looked REALLY good at Trials. When a guy who is already on the podium has a career year, gold is a distinct possibility.
It's true that Centro excelled in the 3:36-type races that were typical in those days. Maybe he wouldn't have done as well in the 3:29 races today. But look at the closing splits in Rio. The race was not simply a tactical masterpiece or a lucky day--Centro ran one of the all-time closes in history.
The best runner doesn't always win a championship 1500. But Centro was no fluke: he had 4 top-4 finishes at global outdoor championships!
+1
Centrowitz was easily viewed as one of the favorites in Rio. Kiprop had run fast but his tactics were routinely poor. Makhloufi was the next best and the defending champ, but it was well known he was doubling from the 800. Otherwise the next contender was Centrowitz, and he was in the form of his life. He would have won on that day at any time from 3:35-3:50. It was only really in a rabbited sub-3:30 race that he wouldn't have been competitive.
Nuguse's 3:43 will probably never be matched by any other American currently competing, so it's hard not to put him there. You'd have to think that Kessler and Hocker will be contenders for years, especially in slower races. Colin Sahlman is a very good closer, so he could be contending for American teams in a year or two.
Nuguse - Ends with the fastest PR and the best career on the Diamond League circuit
Hocker - Ends up with the most Oly/WC medals. I also see Cole having a smooth transition to the 5000m as he gets older.
Kessler - Very long and successful career. Seems to have a good head on his shoulders and has put together a plan with VNTC. I just don't think he ever runs the times that Nuguse has and that he can ever outkick the best 1500m runners in the world.
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