Rojo totally disagrees (he thinks it will be too hot to run fast) and went as far as to offer Fauble $1,000 if third place runs faster than 2:08:10. What do you think?
If someone other than Conner Mantz or Clayton Young runs 2:08:10 or faster on Saturday, the US will have three guaranteed men's spots in the Olympic marathon.
I doubt it either but.......? Little to no shade tomorrow. But no wind either. Is the course challenging elevation wise? Men have a slight advantage starting a bit earlier and finishing almost a 1/2 hour earlier. Dewpt looks good.
I think rojo’s totally right on this one. I doubt one person will run under 2:08:10, let alone three.
Most of the top guys were at Chicago on a better weather day and two guys barely got it WITH pacers. This weekend is warmer and no pacers, and technically more elevation gain. I could see all 3 being around 2:09:00, but not under 2:08:10
People seem to always underestimate the impact of temperature. Although not bad temps for the location and time of day, the entire marathon will be run outside of the ideal temperature range. My prediction is 0 runners under 2:08:10, and that the 3rd place runner will be above 2:10:10. First place will likely be 2:09 mid to high, if they have a good race.
People seem to always underestimate the impact of temperature. Although not bad temps for the location and time of day, the entire marathon will be run outside of the ideal temperature range. My prediction is 0 runners under 2:08:10, and that the 3rd place runner will be above 2:10:10. First place will likely be 2:09 mid to high, if they have a good race.
Low humidity, basically no wind and it's going to be 58 at the start and 68 at the finish on a flat course. Doesn't seem particularly hot to me with the sun being the biggest problems. I'd say it's a pretty sad state of affairs if it's an honest pace (sub-65 at half) if there aren't 3 guys under 2:10 and there probably should be 2 under 2:09
Low humidity, basically no wind and it's going to be 58 at the start and 68 at the finish on a flat course. Doesn't seem particularly hot to me with the sun being the biggest problems. I'd say it's a pretty sad state of affairs if it's an honest pace (sub-65 at half) if there aren't 3 guys under 2:10 and there probably should be 2 under 2:09
And they've all trained and prepared for significantly worse conditions.
Don't we already have a separate thread about the weather in Orlando?
This thread is about Robert compulsively betting $1000 because his gut is more knowledgeable than Scott Fauble's.
I think the crux of Fauble's instinct is that there are probably 5-6 guys that fancy themselves in 2:06-2:07 shape and another 10 guys that believe they can run 2:08-2:09. While I and certainly most of letsrun don't believe that, the athletes do. So even with the decent weather in Orlando, some of those guys will run well.
Rojo is probably correct but it is usually foolish to offer money for something when you have no control over the situation and the potential recipient ostensibly might.
Rojo is probably correct but it is usually foolish to offer money for something when you have no control over the situation and the potential recipient ostensibly might.
Rojo is probably correct but it is usually foolish to offer money for something when you have no control over the situation and the potential recipient ostensibly might.
If it works, money well spent!
Why is it money well spent? What does Rojo get out of it?
I'd be really surprised if it goes that fast. In my prediction contest I guessed a mid 2:10 time for the win but Fauble has a chance to really make me look stupid by running that fast and winning because I didn't even pick him in my top 5. If he does that, I'd be so happy to be wrong because that would be an awesome race!
I think at least 5 will be gunning for 2:08:10 and still on pace at 20k. If speed ratings were a thing for marathons, I feel confident saying at least three will run a performance that would speed rate equivalent to 2:08:10 in WR conditions.
It’ll play out like a time trial more than a tactical race, IMO.
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