The biggest longshot who will make the 2024 US Olympic Marathon team will be...

For the men, I'm going with no upset. The team will be made up by 3 of the men who've already run under 2:10.

For the women, I'll take Molly Huddle with an epic comeback to make the team!

my dream 3: Mantz, Albertson, Fischer
realistically it's: Mantz, Rupp, Fauble
longshot - CJ

from the sound of his chicken-radiators heat training CJ could be really well primed for it. Also while I don't actually think he'll podium, I do think Fischer will finish higher than people expect - dude's a grinder and his PR is from Boston (same w CJ)

for women I would've gone with: Sisson, D'Amato & Bates
I'm not in the loop enough to know how Seidel is getting on so will defer to Saina

I think Hall is the long shot and I really want to see her do it

How many will be American-born? 3? 4?

Seems like the biggest longshots are Tammy Hsieh on the women's side and Adam Wollant, Joshua Kalapos and Erik Linden on the men's.

Guessing you meant to ask who is a dark horse to make the team. I bet we'll see at least one debutante on the team. O'Keeffe or Rogers for the women, Estrada or Isai Rodriguez for the men.

Isn't this thread titled: "The biggest longshot to make the 2024 US Olympic Marathon team will be..."

The only entrant list I have found is here from a LetsRun thread:

https://usatf.sport80.com/public/events/148006/entries/38?bl=wizard

No Estrada but Rodriguez is listed.

Is there another entry list showing Estrada running?

I'm not going to count Abdi out.

dark horse pick = Joey Whelan

I absolutely never had a shot and I still don't. Is what I would write ✍️ for Final Jeopardy .

Mantz, Mekonen, Rupp

Sisson, Saina, D'Amato

In that order.

The men's is more interesting I guess. So many guys within a couple minutes of each other. Mantz has only run three marathons, two being 2:07 and 2:08. The third was him absolutely sending it in Boston and blowing up to a 2:10. I don't think there will be a need to go out faster than 64 and change so I don't think he's going to blow up and fade beyond the top 3. Teshome has been a consistent 60/61 guy in the half, not as experienced in the full but his most recent marathon he went out crazy fast and still ran 2:10 blowing up, again I don't think there will be anyone going out faster than 64, so I think he'll be running within himself sitting in the pack and be able to close similarly and run his first sub 2:10 and hold on to top 3. And then for Rupp, I know he hasn't looked great the past year, but he's so experienced and has a career of volume and bigtime racing under him, his 62 at Houston is 'good enough' to tell me he will be able to be in the mix running 64/65 through the half and he'll be a gamer to close good enough to be top 3.

On the women's side it's very top heavy. With Hall not running Houston I assume she's not firing on all cylinders. Bates is out. This leaves Sisson, D'Amato, Saina, Seidel, and Vaughn. Sissan and D'Amato when running well are quite a bit ahead of the others. But Saina ran her best qualifying race most recently. The biggest dark horse is probably Gabriella Rooker and I think has a real shot. She just started running seriously a few years ago and is improving very rapidly with every marathon she runs. A 2:56 in 2021 for her first one. Then in 2022 a 2:34 followed up with a 2:29. Then in 2023 a 2:27 and most recently a 2:24. At this rate it wouldn't be shocking to see her run a 2:23 at the trials, and that has a very good shot at being top 3.

Lindsay Flanagan is seeded only #12. But her performance in Budapest indicates she is a better championship racer than that seeding.

I think Zach Panning definitely has a chance based on 2022 Chi and Worlds so not sure he'd be a big upset. Bigger possible upset: Joel Reichow. just keeps getting better and is a legit longshot unlike Mantz, Rupp et al. (Joel meets the over 2:10 criteria)

For the women, Natosha Rogers. Might as well get a debut athlete up in there and if Boston was a tune up race she could be a sub 2:25 runner.

Your mom

On the women's side, I would go with Gabi Rooker as the longshot. She was a gymnast in college and did not start pro running until after college. She has had a jaw dropping progression in the marathon, with a 2:24 in Chicago this fall. She has nothing to lose and can just go for it on race day.

On the men's side, I like Zach Panning. He is heat tested with a solid run at Worlds in Budapest. Seems like he is in good shape coming into the trials.

This, a machine who just won't quit.

I don’t understand the question. The actual biggest long shot would be a morbidly obese person who is comatose.

I’m going with Christian Allen.

Not following their training cycles so it's spit-balling:

Men:

Brendan Gregg, Ben True, Jared Ward

Women:

Nell Rojas, Molly Huddle, Dakota Lindwurm (Gabi Rooker was mentioned).