Natosha Rogers marathon trials prediction

I think top 10.

I think she'll be in the pack until 18 miles, and then fall off. It doesn't seem that she's been doing training at altitude with Fiona O'Keefe. I would choose Fiona over Natosha tbh

Plus she's talked on social media about struggling with the training and often throwing up during long runs.

But also how everything is coming around right on time.
If the pace is slow, which I don't see anybody pushing it, then she can sit and sit, and when she sees 10k to go, she may see the light in the tunnel quite reachable. If she is healthy, she will be top 10. Slower it goes in the beginning higher her chances. Her 10Ks showed she can suffer in no-man's land situation and get it done. I only wish men and women didn't race at the same time, but day apart. Hope the coverage is good.

I’m interviewing Natosha for this week’s newsletter because I am curious myself. Given Molly’s success at the last Trials, it feels like we should give serious consideration to those athletes making their debut. Let’s also not overlook Fiona O’Keeffe either who at the time of her running 67:42 had the fastest debut ever by an American.

Check back in on Wednesday (or subscribe at TheLapCount.com) for more insight!

I really hope Natosha does well. I'm a big fan, she has a nice vibe about her.

I met her about a year ago in a chance encounter, and she was really cool. She talked to me for a while, we actually have a few people in common that we figured out, and she came off as a very regular person who just loves running. Definitely rooting for her!

I expect Natosha to make the team and surprise many with her performance.

Expect Great Things!!!

10k seems to be the sweet spot for her. But with the marathon, you never know until you get there. I really wish she raced a marathon before the trials, but she made the US team in both the 5k and 10k and really hasn't had a good chance to take on a marathon while still competing on the track.

On paper, she should be able to run 2:25. She loves to race and is a very gutsy runner who does not back down when she starts hurting. I think she is definitely a dark horse to make the team just because she is such an experienced racer and knows how to compete under the pressure of a major championship. The only question is whether she will be able to adjust to the distance on her first try. We won't know the answer until race day.

too much discussion of my dark horse picks!

I’d predict podium or DNF, with the latter being more likely, given her own comments about how she feels about long runs. When you’re a solid candidate to qualify on the track, too, there’s not a ton of incentive to grind out miles when you’re out of the hunt.

There’s so much variance in a single marathon, so much more than on the track. I mean, Jake Riley probably wouldn’t have been in most people’s top 25 going into last year’s trials. And there a ton of high-variance athletes in the field: Tuliamuk, Seidel, Rogers, O’Keefe, Simpson, Saina, Vaughn. And the experienced folks like Hall, Sisson, Rojas, and D’Amato. Should be fun to watch!

I wouldnt read too much into that. I feel like that's her personality. She's never confident and always errs on the side of doubt. Definitely not a criticism, but she's quite different to most other athletes from that perspective.

I actually think she'll make the team. Phenomenal talent who spent a number of years in the Hansons system and has taken things to a new level since moving to Puma and NC.

If there is anyone at the trials who will grind out the miles even if she is out of the top three, it is Natosha. She may also be looking to switch to the marathon full time as she is getting older and track favors younger racers. If she can hit a solid time, that will yield better appearance fees and opportunities to run major marathons than if she jogged it in or DNF-ed.

I am still kinda confused to see why she runs the marathon trials. Hasn't she made the team repeatedly in the 5k? Seems like a confusing choice. Why is absolutely *everyone* trying to qualify in the marathon. Will there be a good 5k team left?

Her contract probably screams marathon, marathon, marathon; do you really think she is the future and face of USA 5/10k? Don’t be surprised or confused.