Now that Cooper Teare has won cross country nationals, let's talk about the Olympic Trials 5000 meters

colorunner123 wrote:

The players:

Abdihamid Nur
Paul Chelimo
Grant Fisher
Nico Young
Cooper Teare
Sean McGorty
Graham Blanks
Woody Kincaid
Joe Klecker

How the race is likely to play out:

Olympic Trials 5000 meter races are always slow, tactical affairs. Since 1976, no 5000m final has been won in a time faster than 13:22:

1976: 13:26
1980: 13:30
1984: 13:26
1988: 13:47
1992: 13:40
1996: 13:46
2000: 13:27
2004: 13:27
2008: 13:27
2012: 13:22
2016: 13:35
2021: 13:26

Maybe a strength-based runner -- someone like Grant Fisher, Nico Young, or Joe Klecker -- will start pushing the pace with 1200 - 1600 to go. I doubt they will be able to push the pace hard enough to burn off the kickers.

Who has the best kick?

Predicting what is going to happen in this race is not complicated: The winner is whoever can hang on with the leaders and then run his last lap in 53 seconds. There are only three runners -- Abdihamid Nur, Paul Chelimo, and Woody Kincaid -- who have shown they are capable of doing this.

Nur, the defending champ, was in a class of his own last year. He is young and I assume he will keep improving. I consider him the favorite.

Chelimo, who always performs well at big races (he has two Olympic medals), was not far behind Nur last year. He seems like he has been around forever but is only 33 years old. Remember Bernard Lagat won the Trials at age 41. I think Chelimo will make the team.

Kincaid has an excellent kick. Last year's performance at the USATF meet, however, was mixed. He won the 10000 but was only ninth in the 5000. He is a bit of a wildcard.

Grant Fisher recently smashed the AR in the 3000 meters, which makes him an obvious threat to win here. However, he is not known for his kick or his top-end speed. Nor has he shown a propensity to push the pace in big races. If he allows the pace to dawdle, which he probably will, I think he not only will not win but is unlikely to make the team.

Cooper Teare has run a 3:51 mile and won the USATF 1500 meters in 2022. Based on that it seems he should be capable of kicking as well as Nur and Chelimo (both of whom have mile PRs of just 3:55). Given his excellent recent performance at the USA cross country championships, I assume he will target the 5000 at the Trials rather than face Nuguse et al. in the 1500. Teare was "only" fifth in the 5000 last year (a decent performance) but I think he is fitter this year. I see him as following in the footsteps of Eamonn Coghlan and Said Aouita, former milers who went on to excel at the 5000. I like his chances of making the team. If it comes down to Teare vs Nur and Chelimo in the final 100 meters, Teare has a shot at winning outright.

Nico Young just ran a 3:57 mile at 6,900 feet altitude, indicating a new level of fitness and speed. I doubt any other 5000/10000 American runner could do right now (i.e. in January 2024) what Young just did. Whether he can convert his newfound mile speed into a 53-54 second lap at the end of a 5000 remains to be seen. I have my doubts. Also, with Young showing such sharpness in January, I worry that he is peaking prematurely.

In a slow race, I think McGorty, Blanks, and Klecker are going to struggle on the last lap. McGorty and Klecker were third and fourth, respectively, in the 5000 last year. But this year the competition will be tougher: Fisher and Young will probably both be in the race and I think Teare is more fit now than he was last year.

As of today, my picks are as follows:

1. Nur
2. Teare
3. Chelimo
4. Kincaid
5. Fisher
6. McGorty
7. Young
8. Klecker
9. Blanks

colorunner123 wrote:

The players:

Abdihamid Nur
Paul Chelimo
Grant Fisher
Nico Young
Cooper Teare
Sean McGorty
Graham Blanks
Woody Kincaid
Joe Klecker

How the race is likely to play out:

Olympic Trials 5000 meter races are always slow, tactical affairs. Since 1976, no 5000m final has been won in a time faster than 13:22:

1976: 13:26
1980: 13:30
1984: 13:26
1988: 13:47
1992: 13:40
1996: 13:46
2000: 13:27
2004: 13:27
2008: 13:27
2012: 13:22
2016: 13:35
2021: 13:26

Maybe a strength-based runner -- someone like Grant Fisher, Nico Young, or Joe Klecker -- will start pushing the pace with 1200 - 1600 to go. I doubt they will be able to push the pace hard enough to burn off the kickers.

Who has the best kick?

Predicting what is going to happen in this race is not complicated: The winner is whoever can hang on with the leaders and then run his last lap in 53 seconds. There are only three runners -- Abdihamid Nur, Paul Chelimo, and Woody Kincaid -- who have shown they are capable of doing this.

Nur, the defending champ, was in a class of his own last year. He is young and I assume he will keep improving. I consider him the favorite.

Chelimo, who always performs well at big races (he has two Olympic medals), was not far behind Nur last year. He seems like he has been around forever but is only 33 years old. Remember Bernard Lagat won the Trials at age 41. I think Chelimo will make the team.

Kincaid has an excellent kick. Last year's performance at the USATF meet, however, was mixed. He won the 10000 but was only ninth in the 5000. He is a bit of a wildcard.

Grant Fisher recently smashed the AR in the 3000 meters, which makes him an obvious threat to win here. However, he is not known for his kick or his top-end speed. Nor has he shown a propensity to push the pace in big races. If he allows the pace to dawdle, which he probably will, I think he not only will not win but is unlikely to make the team.

Cooper Teare has run a 3:51 mile and won the USATF 1500 meters in 2022. Based on that it seems he should be capable of kicking as well as Nur and Chelimo (both of whom have mile PRs of just 3:55). Given his excellent recent performance at the USA cross country championships, I assume he will target the 5000 at the Trials rather than face Nuguse et al. in the 1500. Teare was "only" fifth in the 5000 last year (a decent performance) but I think he is fitter this year. I see him as following in the footsteps of Eamonn Coghlan and Said Aouita, former milers who went on to excel at the 5000. I like his chances of making the team. If it comes down to Teare vs Nur and Chelimo in the final 100 meters, Teare has a shot at winning outright.

Nico Young just ran a 3:57 mile at 6,900 feet altitude, indicating a new level of fitness and speed. I doubt any other 5000/10000 American runner could do right now (i.e. in January 2024) what Young just did. Whether he can convert his newfound mile speed into a 53-54 second lap at the end of a 5000 remains to be seen. I have my doubts. Also, with Young showing such sharpness in January, I worry that he is peaking prematurely.

In a slow race, I think McGorty, Blanks, and Klecker are going to struggle on the last lap. McGorty and Klecker were third and fourth, respectively, in the 5000 last year. But this year the competition will be tougher: Fisher and Young will probably both be in the race and I think Teare is more fit now than he was last year.

As of today, my picks are as follows:

1. Nur
2. Teare
3. Chelimo
4. Kincaid
5. Fisher
6. McGorty
7. Young
8. Klecker
9. Blanks

colorunner123 wrote:

"Teare ran the 5000m as a main event before because he was with Bowerman. He now wants to focus on the 1500m, with the 5000 being a backup."

Yes, he has said this, but making the 1500 team is going to be tough. Nuguse and Hocker are better than everyone else, leaving only one spot for the rest of the field. Can Teare outkick Kessler and Prakel and Waskom and Centrowitz and all the other dudes? Remember: he wasn't even able to advance beyond the first heat last year.

By contrast, Teare is extremely well suited for a tactical 5000. He has shown he has excellent strength. All he needs to do to make the team is run with the pack (should not be difficult as the pace will be slow), get into good position on the penultimate lap, and then finish in 53-54 seconds.

Assuming he is very fit, I give him a 1 in 3 chance of making the 1500 team but a 2 out of 3 chance of making the 5000 team. Running both events would be foolish because doing so would compromise his chances in his stronger event.

Maybe he loves the 1500 but I bet he loves making the Olympic team even more. I think he will switch to the 5000.