Who would you bet on in the Olympic 1500m next year, Jakob or the field?

The field. The number of guys who are sub-3:30 and Jacob's repeated vulnerability in championship races means that even if he's favourite, he's not nailed on

Depending on how fast will Jakob run. If he runs 3:28, he wins. In a 3:29 race he most certainly gets pipped by one of many 800/1500m type runners. My secret bet would be on Garcia.

Cole Hocker. Why?

Because he's been low mileage compared to everyone else so he can simply up his mileage and become the best.

Or maybe that's just my prediabetic brain on high fructose corn syrup conjuring up a fantasy. Happens to a lot of people.

If Jakob is sick (I mean really sick, like dizzy all day -Budapest) I’ll give him a 40 / 60 against the field. If in normal shape I estimate 95 / 5…. (He might fall, someone is 3 sec better than estimated , and so on).

You say this like it is a certainty. I think Kerr and Nuguse are capable of 3:28. Nordas could make that jump too. Maybe even Laros. If he runs 3:27, then I think he wins. Running 3:27 from the front, after rounds, in the Olympic final, is not easy. Maybe he’ll get help from Kipsang.

He ran a 3:43 mile. Faster than 3:28

At the end, it does not matter who wins because running the fastest is the whole point of this sport

Too early to say given injuries and illness common to those pushing it in training and racing.

A fit and healthy Jakob wins.

the only way he wins guaranteed is if he runs 3:25. which is impossible in a championship race.

even 3:26, 3:27, or 3:28 is not a guaranteed gold medal

Kerr and Nuguse weren't capable of 3:28 after rounds and semifinals.

They all were capable of 3:29 though and Kerr came out on top. In Paris, anyone else could do the same. Maybe Nordas, Laros, Nuguse or Garcia. It also could be Hoare or Habbs.

To beat Jakob in Paris in 3:28, you have to be at least in 3:27 shape.

Jakob doesn't have the best basic speed. Everyone knows this. He is vulnerable in the final 100m like what happened with Wightman and Kerr, and almost with Nuguse.

If the field were smart, they would go out slow, make Jakob take the lead or go slow with them, then leave him in the dust on the final straight. Jakob can't close in 51, 24, or 11. Most of the other guys can.

Jakob benefitted from Cheruiyot acting as his pacer in Tokyo. I suspect no one will do him that favor in Paris.

Betting usually has to be done before the event happens.

Technically this is guessing and not betting.

I sincerely doubt any european betting site would offer (european) odds of 2 or higher on Jakob winning the 1500m final. before worlds, the sites were offering odds around 1,1 if i remember correctly.
It seems like an amazing opportunity if you were able to make that bet.

Neither.

There is no Olympics next year.

Couldn’t agree more -it’s all about getting one’s potential out and shine (although have to admit that sometimes champ races can be fun..). I really like Jakob’s attitude (sad because he was sick and couldn’t win the 5000m WC in a dominant fashion; yes I also suspect him of being frustrated over how hot weather conditions ruins the good times in the 5000m champs).

Yes, clearly Jakob benefitted from Cheruiyot acting as his pacer in Tokyo. And clearly Jakob would have won nevertheless…