Sound pretty reasonable. If she is training as a professional this summer she should get around that. Another year after that she should be around 14:30 or faster if healthy.
Tuohy's indoor 3000 last season of 8:35 was worth 1214 WA points and that is significantly better than her outdoor 5000 PR of 15:03.
She should be able to put in a 5000 performance similar to her 3000 performance sometime in the next year. The WA point scale would out that somewhere in the 14:33ish range and that seem feasible particularly if she get some altitude work in. When she goes to living and training full time at altitude I would expect that we will see her on the same trajectory as Alicia Monson.
Not being tied to a collegiate schedule will also be helpful.
Tuohy's indoor 3000 last season of 8:35 was worth 1214 WA points and that is significantly better than her outdoor 5000 PR of 15:03.
She should be able to put in a 5000 performance similar to her 3000 performance sometime in the next year. The WA point scale would out that somewhere in the 14:33ish range and that seem feasible particularly if she get some altitude work in. When she goes to living and training full time at altitude I would expect that we will see her on the same trajectory as Alicia Monson.
Not being tied to a collegiate schedule will also be helpful.
The running performance calculators equate 8:35 to about 14:45 for 5000m which seems about right.
Didn’t she train pretty hard while she was in college and even in HS? I doubt living and training at altitude will make much difference. The have been great runners that lived at sea level. Salazar ran his 5 and 10K ARs while living in Eugene.
If Henes was right (and honest) and she was in the best shape of her life in November that does seem reasonable but I learned a long time ago my ability to predict the future is poor.
Three of her four best races of the year were in Jan/Feb indoors. Everybody reaches a peak at some point and she might be near the limits of her ability. She is just as likely to run another race under 1120 points as she is run another at 1200+. She appears to be on a downswing while runners like Valby, Wiley, O'Sullivan, Markezich, Ramsden, and others are on an upswing.
I expect her pro career to be more in line with that of Dani Jones, a three-time NCAA champion who just never really seemed to develop as a pro. She's always in the race but never on the podium, except in some smaller pro meets. Never represent the US internationally except for possibly the watered-down Indoor and Cross Country teams.
Three of her four best races of the year were in Jan/Feb indoors. Everybody reaches a peak at some point and she might be near the limits of her ability. She is just as likely to run another race under 1120 points as she is run another at 1200+. She appears to be on a downswing while runners like Valby, Wiley, O'Sullivan, Markezich, Ramsden, and others are on an upswing.
I expect her pro career to be more in line with that of Dani Jones, a three-time NCAA champion who just never really seemed to develop as a pro. She's always in the race but never on the podium, except in some smaller pro meets. Never represent the US internationally except for possibly the watered-down Indoor and Cross Country teams.
It seems clear to me you have a bias. The Feb 25 3000 was a slow pace with a very fast final K with no competition (2:45), and 2 days prior she anchored the DMR in 4:23, which would be roughly the 1190 score as her mile in January. Then she handily beat all comers in NCAA 3000 and 5000 in mid March. Her outdoor season was certainly not as good - especially the tail end of it.
Tuohy's indoor 3000 last season of 8:35 was worth 1214 WA points and that is significantly better than her outdoor 5000 PR of 15:03.
She should be able to put in a 5000 performance similar to her 3000 performance sometime in the next year. The WA point scale would out that somewhere in the 14:33ish range and that seem feasible particularly if she get some altitude work in. When she goes to living and training full time at altitude I would expect that we will see her on the same trajectory as Alicia Monson.
Not being tied to a collegiate schedule will also be helpful.
The running performance calculators equate 8:35 to about 14:45 for 5000m which seems about right.
Didn’t she train pretty hard while she was in college and even in HS? I doubt living and training at altitude will make much difference. The have been great runners that lived at sea level. Salazar ran his 5 and 10K ARs while living in Eugene.
It may or may not. If she adapts well to altitude, it will. Not everyone adapts and makes improvements. Odds are that it will, though. What basis do you have for saying that the hypoxia-induced erythropoietic drive that comes from training and living at altitude that would ultimately result in an increase in hemoglobin concentration and hematocrit wouldn't "make much difference"?
Elly Henes had a 15:18ish PR prior to moving and training at altitude. She's at 14:47 & 30:48 now and will likely continue to improve. Nobody can deny that altitude has not helped Monson tremendously. There are a plethora of other examples.
We will only know once she races. That's why they race.
Three of her four best races of the year were in Jan/Feb indoors. Everybody reaches a peak at some point and she might be near the limits of her ability. She is just as likely to run another race under 1120 points as she is run another at 1200+. She appears to be on a downswing while runners like Valby, Wiley, O'Sullivan, Markezich, Ramsden, and others are on an upswing.
I expect her pro career to be more in line with that of Dani Jones, a three-time NCAA champion who just never really seemed to develop as a pro. She's always in the race but never on the podium, except in some smaller pro meets. Never represent the US internationally except for possibly the watered-down Indoor and Cross Country teams.
It seems clear to me you have a bias. The Feb 25 3000 was a slow pace with a very fast final K with no competition (2:45), and 2 days prior she anchored the DMR in 4:23, which would be roughly the 1190 score as her mile in January. Then she handily beat all comers in NCAA 3000 and 5000 in mid March. Her outdoor season was certainly not as good - especially the tail end of it.
Yep, they're definitely a hater. We'll find out once she races but haters will continue to hate.
The running performance calculators equate 8:35 to about 14:45 for 5000m which seems about right.
Didn’t she train pretty hard while she was in college and even in HS? I doubt living and training at altitude will make much difference. The have been great runners that lived at sea level. Salazar ran his 5 and 10K ARs while living in Eugene.
It may or may not. If she adapts well to altitude, it will. Not everyone adapts and makes improvements. Odds are that it will, though. What basis do you have for saying that the hypoxia-induced erythropoietic drive that comes from training and living at altitude that would ultimately result in an increase in hemoglobin concentration and hematocrit wouldn't "make much difference"?
Elly Henes had a 15:18ish PR prior to moving and training at altitude. She's at 14:47 & 30:48 now and will likely continue to improve. Nobody can deny that altitude has not helped Monson tremendously. There are a plethora of other examples.
We will only know once she races. That's why they race.
Or maybe it Henes' improvement came from switching from singles to doubles. IIRC Coach Henes was 'holding back' KT to singles, about 60 mpw max. Elly likely went from singles as a college student, to doubles as a pro.
Probably the same as it is today. Going pro is a big transition. Lots of folks have a tough time with it.
I'm sure she'll be breaking 15 for 5k regularly in 2025, but she likely won't PR at 5k in 2024. Just needs time to adjust to the new lifestyle and situation. I'd love to be proven wrong though.
Valby will be doing the same in one year: why can’t I break 14:56? Not to mention getting beat by Doris and Brenda!
if touhy improves to 14:53 (10sec improvement) she will be doing great. The evidence shows runners at the 15:00 mark can’t improve 30secs like a 16:00 runner (recent example of Chloe Scrimgeour (sp) of Georgetown did at the BU indoor but 10 others didn’t show any improvement). Even monsoon progressed about 10sec a year.
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