NIKE CROSS NATIONALS PREDICTIONS

Girls

1) Air Academy- 74

2) Niwot- 115

3) Jserra- 158

4) Mountain Vista- 170

5) Buchanan- 178

6) Lone Peak- 201

7) Tatnall- 212

8) North Allegheny- 238

9) Lincoln- 246

10) Union Catholic- 253

11) Santiago- 256

12) Southlake Carroll- 302

13) Flower Mound- 309

14) Jesuit- 310

15) Assumption- 343

16) Mt. Prospect- 365

17) DGN- 383

18) Elmhurst- 390

19) Saratoga Springs- 412

20) Olathe West- 529

21) Bethlehem Central- 532

22) Wayzata- 556

All in on Noonan for a top 3 spot. Perez for top 10.

CA individuals gonna show out this weekend.

Jserra moved up to 3rd place! Impressive! I am rooting for Lone Peak to get a podium spot. How is Santiago ranked below Buchanan? They beat them at State. The battle of the Colorado teams will be fun to watch-I think either could win it all!

Would love to see individual rankings before Saturday.

I want Noonan to win and I could realistically see him top 5. I think State meet was the first meet he really went after it. That last mile of 4:26 when he was down 4 secs at the 2.1 mile split and then winning by 17 secs at 14:35 over Bell 14:52 is ridiculous. That’s a 21 sec difference within the span of a mile.

My only worry is that a guy like Daniel Simmons can put a much larger gap on Noonan.

Buchanan did have one of their top 5 drop out; they seem to have issues at the Clovis/State Meet since 1 runner seems to drop out the last few races there.

At full strength I'd put them over Santiago, but no way by 78 points like that post.

I feel that Noonan has a shot if he’s within 6 secs of Simmons at 3k. Noonan’s achilles heel is him getting too comfortable early on in the race and letting the front runners create a gap on him.

Case in point Clovis. Fast horse was 7 secs ahead at the mile 4:37 to Noonan’s 4:44. That ballooned to 16 secs at the 2.1 mile split. 10:01 Fast horse to 10:17 Noonan. Noonan made up some ground gaining 4 secs the last mile 14:44 to Fast horse 14:32.

For Noonan to have a shot at winning, he needs to be situationally aware of his position and not let the front pack get away from him. He should just shadow Simmons the whole race if it goes out fast the first mile and maintain contact and be within 3 secs of Simmons. If it’s a slow race and comes down to a kick, I’d hate to be the field and try to stick to Noonan and Simmons.

This will be an incredible race to watch! I think Simmons is the favorite but Noonan seems capable of winning it all.

Makes sense. But I agree 78 points seems off. Santiago is a young team and they just got an incredible confidence boost.

Running on grass is key. If you have a top 10 guy and runs well on grass he will win. Running on grass over other terrains are completely different.

CBA is too low on these predictions. As long as they don't have a bad day, they go top 3 and if they have a very good day they win the whole thing.

I also think Simmons front running will favor AF over Herriman in a field this stacked.

On the individual side, i have no idea. There are a LOT of guys who could take it and after last year, anything can happen. Looks like it will be Simmons / Fast horse / Noonan / Grevious / Neil and Mechura fighting it out.

Fast horse did not qualify.

Wow, CBA & CDA right next to each other. Interesting

Interesting! Is this based off of regional results or does it include past performances beyond that?

Putting CBA 8th is so brave and so true. The Northeast/NY to Cali/Southwest speed rating conversion is at least 3 points. Daniel Tully gave Grievous a 199 for an obviously underving effort.

My predictions:

Herriman & American Fork 1-2, no idea which order.

3: San Clemente

4: CBA

5: Belen

1: Danny Simmons

2: Nathan Neil

3: Evan Noonan

4: Machuro

5: Grievous

What is brave is you putting San Clemente in 3rd when Dana Hills has beaten them head to head three times. I think that Dana Hills knows how to shadow San Clemente and will be right on their shoulder.

1. American Fork

2. Dana Hills

3. Herriman

4. Southlake Carroll

5. CBA

6. San Clemente

7. CDA

8. Belen

9. DGN

10. Great Oak

Although this should not have influenced it, I think 199 for 15:33 is consistent with the speed ratings Tuohy got on that Bowdoin Park course (174 for 16:45). Course was also somewhat muddy this past Saturday. The speed rating results for American Fork and CBA from the regionals are not terribly different although American Fork should be favored. Simmons probably has upside if needed though. If you don't believe in speed ratings, well there is no head to head.

The Stride Report just listed the top 10 teams

1. Niwot

2. Air Academy

3. Lone Peak

4. Flower Mound

5. Mountain Vista

6. JSerra

7. Santiago Corona

8. Tatnall

9. SouthLake Carroll

10. Lincoln

I think it's between Southlake Carroll and American fork. I have Herriman at 3rd