That's pretty much my thinking, except for the end: it's been long established that
"the tests are insufficient to catch microdosing even with consistent targeting".
There are the numbers mentioned above, showing that
- even those flagged - let alone those banned - are only a small part of the large group of blood dopers,
- plus at least the one Ashenden Epo study where dosages up to 30-40 IU/kg were at the border of getting flagged,
- plus at least the two Russian dopers who were first "cleared" despite their obvious ABP flags, and later banned based on witness accounts for Epo doping during the same time period.
For example if all athletes would simply stay below, say, 20 IU/kg, they could never get caught. 20 IU/kg isn't exactly "micro"dosing either. Fortunately for the AIU, some athletes take a riskier approach by using more, so some of those do get banned based on the ABP.