Top ten NCAA Women's predictions

Rosina Machu could be in the 5-15 range imo.

Good list:

Agree on 1&2. Valby sets a pace noone else can stay with. Tuohy looked better to me in her close at the ACC meet than I have seen. Looked to me almost exactly the time Orton ran for the last 500 when she won there, looking very light on her feet. I'd expect Valby to create a gap and Tuohy to try to catch. No big hills in last 2K on this course though so might be advantage Valby tho one could argue the opposite tho with Tuohy's better mile speed.

3 I want to say Doris or Chmiel but I will go with Maatoug who separated from Chmiel going up the "wall" and then separated more on the fast close. This course does not play to Chmiel's strength.

4&5 Doris and Chmiel - but if Doris tries to go with Valaby again she might implode.

6-8 Stearns/Markezich/Ramsden battle of strength vs fast closers. Markezich does have a tendency to fall back but then come on like gangbusters - and she did at ACC nearly catching Chmiel. I might be underestimating Stearns - but again it is more of a "speed" course. All 3 have run their best at the championship meets.

9-11 Bunnage/Roe/Hilda

Anyone that tries to go with Valby except maybe Tuohy could fall out of top 10.

Next 10:
Flomena Asekol
Chloe Scrimgeour
Gracelyn Larkin
Kaylee Mitchell
Grace Fetherstonhaugh
Margot Appleton
Annika Reiss
Aliandrea Upshaw
Addie Engel
Billah Jepkirui

Where the NAU runners place in this group might determine team win. My guess is they average about 16-17 or are toward the back end of this 10.

and next 10 - I can't see the following beating the above NAU runners.
Carmen Alder
Sarah Carter
Leah Stephens
Molly Born
Paityn Noe
Samantha Bush
Nicola Jansen
Keira Moore
Kimberley May
Aubrey Frentheway

Agree Machu probably belongs in top 20 somewhere but I do not have a good feel for her due to lack of competition. She won handily over Engel (20 sec) and the Ole Miss runners (35 sec) early in the season but Valby just beat the Ole Miss runners by 1 1/2 minutes. If I had to guess I'd say 10-15.

I'd limit the FR AA list to Bunnage, Stephens, Noe, Keira Moore. They might all be in top 30. I'd guess the others more like 50th or so.

oh BTW has there been a championship won in under 19:00? This might be the year with what seems to be a fast course and a fast runner who sets a fast pace. My guess is 18:50.

It's possible. She has run some very fast times and like to get out hard. She looked very strong at WCC.

West regionals will be competitive with Stanford, Oregon, OS, Cal Baptist, Washington runners so will have a better idea after that.

Do you know whether there is some way to have LACCTIC list all of the NCAA athletes in succession by their latest TIC? I see how to do it by Region, but not collectively combined.

No. #1 all time edna kurgat 19:19. Tuohy has #4 at OK state.

Fastest times in a championship all time bold indicates 1st place

#1

2017

Place:1
Louisville
19:19.5
Ednah Kurgat
New Mexico

#2

2021
Place: 1
Florida St.
19:25.4
Whittni Orton
BYU

#3
2017
Place : 2
Louisville
19:27.0
Amy-Eloise Neale
Washington

#4
2022
Place: 1
Oklahoma State
19:27.7
Katelyn Tuohy
NC State

#5
2012
Place:1
Louisville
19:27.9
Betsy Saina
Iowa St.

google.com

The fastest finishes in NCAA DI cross country championships history

With the help of our record books, 25 men's and women's cross country times have been documented as the fastest finishes in NCAA DI Cross Country Championships history. We've pinpointed the dates and locations that radically...

Open link

Click on Division 1 and select simulate and then it ranks the whole division by team and individually (scroll down). Not sure if that is what you mean, but you can see rankings of all runners.

1
Parker Valby
14:56 (14:48 - 15:06)
Florida
JR
2
Katelyn Tuohy
15:18 (15:09 - 15:28)
NC State
JR
3
Doris Lemngole
15:26 (15:17 - 15:35)
Alabama
FR
4
Hilda Olemomoi
15:27 (15:18 - 15:37)
Alabama
SO
5
Elise Stearns
15:31 (15:22 - 15:41)
Northern Arizona
JR
6
Kelsey Chmiel
15:32 (15:23 - 15:42)
NC State
SR
7
Amina Maatoug
15:36 (15:27 - 15:46)
Duke
JR
8
Kaylee Mitchell
15:37 (15:28 - 15:47)
Oregon State
SR
9
Olivia Markezich
15:37 (15:28 - 15:47)
Notre Dame
SR
10
Amelia Mazza-Downie
15:38 (15:29 - 15:48

With Tuohy / Valby, if I look at everything they have done it could go either way, but the results within this season look like edge to Valby to me.

Tuohy looked better at ACCs, but her closes last year seemed perhaps stronger? (Valby closed Nutty in 6:16 for example).

This year last 4k:

6:21 Nutty, 6:15 (3:03) ACCs

2022: 6:09 Nutty, 6:08 regionals, 3:00 Piane, 3:02 ACCs

Don't discount Vicki Huber's race from 1989. Her 5K time would equate very well with Kurgat's 6K. Huber also won by what I believe is the largest margin in history so she wasn't even pushed at all.

Good list...

1 & 2) Tuohy / Valby - Just posted about this in previous post but my general observation is that Valby has made a leap, whereas it is hard to tell where Tuohy is truly at still this season.

3) Lemngole - I don't think we have seen her best yet.

4) Chmiel - Chmiel is a phenomenal XC runner who always peaks for the championship. The top 10 would be smart to ignore Tuohy, Valby and pace off of her.

5) Stearns - Similar to Chmiel, she excels at XC.

6) Olemomoi - Kind of like Tuohy, it is hard to tell where she truly is this season, but she has the 3rd or 4th fastest 5k in the field.

7) Bunnage - I think she is this season's Natalie Cook. 8:50/15:20 and a lot of upside.

8) Markezich - Always peaks for championships.

9) Roe - Great performance at Big 12. I think she will put herself out there this year.

10) Maatoug - Great run at ACCs, she is gaining confidence and has a lot speed. She finished 4th at ACCs last year on this course and has gotten a lot faster since.

Thanks. Now team-wise, the following LACCTIC simulation would be a huge upset.
1 Florida
15:41 (14:56 - 16:08)

2 Northern Arizona
15:45 (15:31 - 15:55)

3 NC State
15:46 (15:18 - 16:05)

4 Oklahoma State
15:55 (15:41 - 16:11)

5 BYU
15:56 (15:45 - 16:07)

6 Stanford
15:58 (15:43 - 16:07)

7 Arkansas
15:59 (15:40 - 16:16)

8 Notre Dame
16:00 (15:37 - 16:15)

9 Alabama
16:02 (15:26 - 16:44)

The above simulation is evidently averaging LACCTIC values of the individual team members, which can be heavily biased if one team member’s value is much higher or lower than the other’s. Thus, Valby’s low LACCTIC value pulls the Florida team to the top of the list.

Therefore, it would make more sense for a team cross-country simulation to take the LACCTIC chronological list of athletes (you posted earlier), and then successively assign them point values as done in cross-country, and sum up the top five for each team; i.e., Valby-1, Tuohy-2, Lemngole-3, etc.

Here is that simulation:
#1 NAU 121 (5-23-26-28-45)
#2 Florida 188 (1-10-12-64-101)
#3 NCState199 (2-6-32-75-84)
#4 OKState263 (17-24-40-71-111)
#5 BYU 265 (22-43-49-53-98)

BTW, has there ever been a three-way team-tie for first place in the history of the NCAA?

That is not a Lacctic simulation. Push the "Simulation/Rank Division 1" button then push "Simulate" again.

1 Northern Arizona (100 - 140) 86%
2 NC State (2 - 3) (141 - 195) 8%
3 Florida (2 - 4) (147 - 209) 6%

By the way the NC State rating does not include Tyynissma.

Sorry, I did not mean to imply it was a “LACCTIC Simulation”, but rather it was the results of the simple exercise of taking the LACCTIC list of runners’ ranking, and scoring them like a cross-country race.

^Here I’m referring to the second part of my post:

Here is that simulation:
#1 NAU 121 (5-23-26-28-45)
#2 Florida 188 (1-10-12-64-101)
#3 NCState199 (2-6-32-75-84)
#4 OKState263 (17-24-40-71-111)
#5 BYU 265 (22-43-49-53-98)

Sorry for the confusion.

Also, it is understandable NCState’s team is still uncertain.

But considering this year she opened the first 2k 20 seconds faster, and the conditions were considerably worse, she may actually have been stronger this year?

Not quite.

Margin
Year
Winner & Runner-up
27.2 secs
1982
Lesley Welch (Va) 16:40.1; Regina Joyce (Wa) 17:07.3

26.92 secs
1989
Vicki Huber (Vill) 15:59.86; Valerie McGovern (Ky) 16:26.78

26.8 secs
2006
Sally Kipyego (TxTech) 20:11.1; Jenny Barringer (Co) 20:37.9

Do you really think that Panorama Farms is a fast course?

Also, about your list in the previous post - if Amaris Tyynismaa is back & healthy, she would have to be a consideration.

I think it runs a lot faster than OSU, maybe Wisconsin. Last year the top 7 at ACC ran 23 seconds faster at the conference meet than they did at Nationals on average. Tuohy was 19 seconds faster and looked much more spent at Nationals than at conference. Tuohy just ran about 15 seconds slower at conference meet this year than last year, Chmiel was about 16 seconds slower.

so it seems to me it is a fast coourse which does seem at odds with the terrain.