Why I think Tuohy will still win over Valby

“Her vO2 (max) is off the charts”

Has her vO2 max been measured? If so, what is it?

Personally I’m just hoping we’ll see a good race. I am also hoping that a few others rise up to join their pack and push them.

KT has b33n conscipus with her training to peak for 3 ncaa meets l/3 sports. Valby missed indoors last year but she was nit pushing g full throttle and more reluctant in her training for preservation. Three sxna in ncaa is ridiculous, it should be be allowed and th3n another outdoor szm after that. Shouldn't be allowed to run athletes ragged like that. Ncaa system is difficult for a distance runner.

Tuohy has been losing every race for the past 5 months. I guess she has found different ways to lose each time if that is your point. And Tuohy was all out at Nuttycombe while Valby wasn't. That's basic logic. The runner who falls behind is trying while the winner always could have gone faster.

I like both runners and am not a fanboi of either. I’m just a fan of the sport and like to see good competition regardless of who the performance is coming from. Valby ran a grey race at Nuttycombe, no doubt.

Having said that, there was a point at Nuttycombe in the last 1.5 to 1.8k, that Tuohy conceded. Her lessened expenditure of effort was markedly noticeable. I watched the entire race.

Interesting. Maybe you should respond to the poster who claimed that Valby was all out at Nutty while Tuohy was not. Only sore losers use that line. "My team/person lost because they let you win."

Wrong! Plenty of runners don't go all out in early season races. Just because someone finishes in second place doesn't mean that they couldn't have run faster.

That's interesting. Were you there?

Tuohy has definitely competed too much over the past year. Henes has tried to temper that but being the competitor that she is, KT has Alex gone along with it. It will be interesting to see if Tuohy does, indeed, run the regional meet. NC State does not need her to qualify to the NCAAs. Florida, on the other hand, does not have as much margin for error and will need Valby at the regional meet. The Gators are tons better than last season but are not at NC State’s level yet.

Two questions -

1. What is the NCAA Champs XC course and how does it compare to LY?

2. What do we expect conditions to be like?

My guess: Tuohy doesn't try and let Valby get too big of a gap and will work to cut it down and hope she timed her effort perfectly like in 2022. But it will be nuanced, as Valby is tremendously fit.

The course is what was run for ACC last year seen in this video. It has a lot of turns and abrupt ups and downs but not quite as large or as long hills as last year.

The difference between this year and last year is winning margin.

Despite running crazy fast times last year, Valby's biggest margin of victory over a top NCAA runner by this point was still only 7 seconds over Chelangat, 20 seconds over Olemomoi. Whereas Tuohy had also beat Chelangat by 12 seconds over a shorter distance.

This year she is 12 seconds over Tuohy, 34 seconds Lemngole, 46 se onds Olemomoi, 35 seconds Chmiel...

Tuohy is a tough competitor and has surprised before. So it will be interesting. I am just hoping it is a good race.

All this speculation is baseless and they will actually race next month. If your assessment in paragraph #2 is accurate, why is it she get smoked in the NCAA 1500m? I suppose you have some excuse for her that she doesn’t want. “Never loses the same” is also nonsense.

Valby has improved her ability to run the tangents this year, so Touhy no longer has an advantage in that department. This year Touhy can't count on outsmarting Valby, she has to outrun her.

The main data point we have is Nuttycombe. Based on my sense of where Tuohy was training wise and the fact that I also thought she conceded the race once she saw Valby get the gap and realized Valby was going to take it, I would say she could have kept it closer. Tuohy finished very strong, which suggested that she had more in the tank whereas I thought Valby went hard, which is her only speed. The inside info we had at the beginning if the season was that Tuohy would not run until ACCs, and that they were trying to taper her training to avoid a late season breakdown, so I think she was ahead of schedule. Plus Valby went super hard yesterday as well. How many of those redline efforts does an athlete have? Valby trains superintense. I do not buy the theory that she is suddenly 20-30 seconds faster than last year in the 5000m. The counterpoint is whether Tuohy can reach last year's level again. Also like Tuohy in Outdoor last season, an athlete can look unbeatable until they suddenly aren't. At Nationals I think the gap will have closed and Tuohy will be willing to redline. And it is a course she has crushed before.

So I would say, assuming everyone comes in healthy, that Valby is the favorite but I think Tuohy will pull it out. We will know more after Regionals.

By last year's level do you mean Tuohy's level last XC season or during indoors?

We also have data from the races yesterday. On paper it looks like Valby possibly dropped 20-30 seconds since outdoors. Olemomoi was a couple seconds off of her at outdoor SEC 5k in 19:25 in the heat. Valby basically ran the same race and time at nationals, also in the heat. And just beat Olemomoi by 46 seconds. If Olemomoi had paced herself it might have been less but how much less?

Someone must have hacked Astro's account. There is no way the real Astro would have written that.

The runner with the best combination of talent and fitness is likely to win. Your analysis, including all the mind reading, does not change that.