Chances of the Two Hour Marathon going down this year 2023 in Chicago or Valencia?

code5800 wrote:

Link:www.valenciaciudaddelrunning.com/en/el...

Valencia Marathon just announced this year's elite field.

Kibiwott Kandie (57:32) Previous HM record holder just 1 second behind Jacob Kiplimo

Alexander Mutiso (57:59 HM / 2:03:29 M) Also part of the Sub58 Group and had an Insane Debut Last year of 2:03 which would've been the fastest Marathon Debut had it not been for Kelvin Kiptum's 2:01:53

Joshua Cheptegei (12:35 5K / 26:11 10K / 59:21 HM) While his Half Marathons have not been as potent as 58:xx . He ran the 5000m in 12:41 this year despite being 3 years passed his prime in 2020. So his potential is very high.

Being that Valencia Marathon's Sponsorship with Trinidad Alfonso ends in 2024. It is very likely they're going all in on the race for Sub 2 now that Kipchoge struggled to go after WR in Berlin.

Plus, The Chicago Marathon pacers for today are estimated to go out at 2:01 Pace. Which leaves a bit of a negative gap for Kelvin Kiptum but can possibly set the stage for a Sub 2.

Thoughts?

code5800 wrote:

GreatDane wrote:

Chicago is not renowned to be a super fast course so a sub 2 will be a challenge for Kiptum. My estimate is a high 2:01. Valencia for a sub 2, very unlikely. The times you mentioned are super quick for the 5km up to the half but the marathon is a totally different beast. Very, very unlikely to see a debut marathoner break the 2hr barrier. Mutiso could be interesting though. Don’t think he would be quite capable of a leap from a 2:03 to a sub 2 yet however.

The hype of Kiptum is very huge right now that's why. Many commenters and even Total Running Productions have theorized he'll enter WR pace going in. To give him the benefit of the doubt, he ran 2:01:25 in London with a massive negative split despite Weather conditions. You don't just run 59:45 after opening in 2:03 Pace. That is a massive anomaly in Marathon History. Plus, Chicago isn't too far off from Ideal conditions. Galen Rupp nearly PR'd in 2021 despite injuries.

As for Valencia, It was the setting where Kiptum debuted in 2:01....SO....Not exactly a slow course. Plus, Cheptegei does have a massive base to build from. 4:34 per mile will definitely be a tempo run the opening 15-20km. I don't know, I'm nervous to find out how this year ends. It's a very Bannister-like time in the Marathon right now.

How long do you think the Two Hour Marathon will last?