Can Jakob or Nuguse break the 1000m WR of 2:11.66?

a prime brazier would have been a more likely candidate. Mahkloufi. Wightman is the right type of runner, but maybe not quite good enough. Though honestly, Ngeny doesn't appear to be a real good 800 runner either. stats are stats. he ran it several times only getting down to 1:44 mid

i think the biggest thing is running it at just the right time for your fitness. it's never run, so hitting right fitness, right race, right weather, etc. is a tall order. even though it seems a not great record.

Getting into the math, the world record is a little bit slower than 1:45.5 800 pace, carried for an extra 200 meters.

You’re probably right. Prime 2019-2020 Brazier can most likely attain, especially with his strength. He ran a 3:35 1500m and had recently run a world best in the 600m at 1:13 before his foot injury.

He didn't really run the 800 during his 1K WR year. All of his 800's that year were in February/March in Australia, when he clearly was not yet in peak fitness. And considering he came through 800 in 1:44.6 during his 1K, I think its safe to say he probably could have gone ~1:42 on that day if he ran an 800. Thats way too fast for Nuguse/Jakob, who are more 1,500/3,000 types than 800/1,500, so I agree this is out of their wheelhouse.

Also side note, but its kinda crazy how many races he would run. In '99, including prelims, he ran 30 races.

Not a chance in hell.

Nygeny was way faster than El G over 1,000m.

Rudisha, Kiprop, or Timothy may have had a chance.

1:42 high/1:43 low basic speed needed to get near that record.

I don't believe you need to be able to run 1:42 or even a low1:43. no chance ngeny was a 1:42 man. Somebody who is a strength runner can turn a high 1:43 into just under 2:12 flat.

Jakob's 800 to 1500 pace is only 2 seconds different. surely somebody going from 800 to 100 can do it with less than a 1 second per 400 differential.

Men and women who have 1 mile to 2 mile as their best events do not break 1000m world record.

Neither J Ingebrigtsen or Y Nuguse will ever race sub-2:13 1000m due to their lack of 600m & 800m success.

I don't think it's impossible, but they would have to be in the exact perfect moment to do it, which isn't likely. Ngeny's best event was 100000% the mile.

1000m is NOT a record that either can get. There is just no way. Neither would win Gold at the Olympics if there were a 1000m event. Jakob would be fortunate to medal.

You are jumping too fast. Do you think that Jakob or Nuguse can compare to Sebastian Coe?

The WR was done in Rieti and the short carrer of Noah Ngeny is a bit enigmatic.

The record is 2:11.96, not 2:11.66. Neither Jakob nor Nuguse would be able to get it, and are more likely 2:13.xx guys in an ideal race. The best candidates currently to ever break that record are Emmanuel Wanyonyi and Niels Laros (in a couple years). Marco Arop could also run a great K but lacks the 1500 chops to ever break 2:12.

If all the 800 & 1500 entrants had raced 1000m in Budapest instead, Wanyonyi, Kerr and Arop would be my picks for the medals.

I disagree. They could do it with no planning.

And certainly Timothy Cheruiyot in, for example, 2019 form would have a MUCH better chance to at least run, say, 2:12.3 or so than Jakob or Goose ever would. And if TC could ever get back into top shape he would be on the podium if there were a 1000m event at a global championship.

This is what would have happened to Jakob/Nuguse if they confront Coe in a 1000m.

Both they will race tactically well as have done Steve Cram in this final.

In the last 100 meters they will not have legs to catch up Coe.

If Aouita was in this race he would have run better than Cram. Aouita that debuted his first 5000m ever in June with a astonishing 12:04.

Timothy 100% could have had that record. Kiprop should have as well. It's a difficult race to run to your ability. There is no race that I see run with less consistency in high school indoor track.

12'04" is more than astonishing...

Absolutely not. Ngeny's WR is going through 800 at 1:45.6 and holding that pace for another 200m. Jakob and Nuguse have not broken 1:46 for just 800m.

He went way faster than that through 800 in the record. In his near-miss he did the go through in 1:45 and kick.

To answer the OP, JWH is correct and nope these guys are not the ones to take on the event. Wightman honestly had a good chance to run 2:12 in 2022 but wimped out and ran conservatively instead. He went through in 1:47.5 (jogging 54.5 from 400-800) and the kicked to 2:13.8. Arop actually rabbited the race and decided to finish and hit 1:45.4 and survived to get 2:14.35. As a proper racer, with his improved 800 ability AND strength I think 2:12.xx is possible. Wanyonyi is the best bet, though as he is very strong and we saw at World XC he can handle a 2,000 even. The other guy who might be good in a 1,000 currently is Kipsang. 3:29 ability obviously and could probably go through in 1:45 and hang on.

I agree with everything except for Rudisha having a chance. The top 5 fastest performers all had sub 3:30 1500m times and all but Ngeny had also broken 1:43. Rudisha was definitely a 400-800 guy. He probably could have run a 2:13, but I think that last 200 would have been a real struggle for him.

Very difficult record IMO. No way jakob or nuguse ever get it. Laros may have a small chance but I doubt it. Tim and makhloufi were the best recent candidates but not good enough.

Ngeny was a very underrated 800m runner, mostly because he rarely ran it. I place him at 1:42 low, and he's the second best miler ever. A pure 800m guy will never get it, bc its 25% longer and Rudisha couldn't do it. The chance of finding another 3:28/27 guy with that speed is very, very, low.