33,000 Boston Applicants

Wow, 2,550 more than 2019 when the cutoff was an extra 4:52.

I felt pretty good about a 10min 50 sec cushion, but not as confident now.

I’m thinking it will be around 8 minutes.

Previous record was just over 30k applicants in 2019 with a cutoff of 4:52. It'll partially depend on the distribution of how far everyone made it under their BQ requirement. Since the standards are faster now than they were then, I'm guessing more applicants are closer to their BQ requirement than were in 2019, which would mean a smaller cutoff time. But since the applicant pool is bigger, assuming they accept the same number of runners (23k), the cutoff would in theory get larger. 23k/30k is 77% acceptance, 23k/33k is 69.69% repeating acceptance. There's no scientific way to know without just having the actual data set, but I think the combination of those two effects might roughly offset, so I'm guessing the cutoff will be anywhere from 3:00-6:00. Glad I'm at 10min!

I have a 8 minute and 50 second cushion. Should I be worried? Too early to book a hotel?

they'll notify everyone within a couple weeks or so, just gotta be patient. I'd give you a 96.969% chance of getting in

You can cancel the hotel. It’s only a $30 charge even with Marathon Tours before Dec.

I was going to book my flight but I hold on that.

fair number of airlines offer free cancellation these days, one of the nice things that's stuck around from pandemic changes

Do they accept Bitcoin?

I am -7:30. Staying confident as I suspect with the faster standards a lot of people are probably within 3-4 minutes under. That being said a lot of people were saying no cutoff or under a minute and that looks way off now.

I'm sure you'll be in but don't book a hotel. They are price gouging now. The average rate is pushing $400/night. Last two years I've booked like a week out for ~$250/night. Boston has far more rooms than will be filled.

Aaaand all of a sudden my 2:53:03/ -6:57 buffer doesn't feel super comfy

That is cheap. When I did it it was closer to 700/night and they didn’t accept Bitcoin or any other sh*tcoin

Won't be much of a cutoff. In 2019, the times were all 5:00 slower than today. If they had used the current times in 2019, there would not have been any cutoff time. Even in 2021 when they cut the field to 20,000 (I think 16,000 qualifiers/4,000 charity), the cutoff was only about 7:45.

I'm guessing a cut of between 0:45-1:00.

If you are 3:00+ under, go ahead and book I say.

I think the good hotels near the finish will be sold out this year. If you’re staying in a less convenient spot, then rates may come down.

Still no harm in booking direct as most offer free cancellation.

I’m curious how many non-binary entrants there are. Is this the first year of that division?

Sure right next to the finish but those are way more money. Was talking east of the Commons but still within a mile or so of the buses like downtown, North end or even seaport.

I think they had non binary last year but I doubt there were many entrants

Thanks for mentioning the application only after it was closed!

We don't know how many of those applicants actually have valid and verified times. If say 15% don't then it's just 27,000. I think cut off time less than a minute maybe even no cutoff.

I am very surprised there were that many who applied. I thought there was less interest and the high cost of the weekend would discourage others from applying.

I am out of touch.

Don't think you understand how this works....

I’ve mentioned a few times here: Boston for a while has always allowed no questions asked non binary. A handful of men have run as women with women's qualifying times. Boston never made a stink about it. They also never advertised it. But they did make remarks that they allow trans, fluid and non binary before this nonsense blew up recently. Not sure when Boston made it official, but it’s been allowed for at least 10 years.