Without Kilian the men's side is wide open. Can Big Jim finally pull it off? I so want to see it, but if I had to put money on it I would likely go with Tom.
On the women's side, it seems more like a competition between Courtney and Courtney's recovery from Western and Hardrock. Ergo - she either wins or drops.
On the men's side, don't forget the french they're always present, Garivier could do something.
Petter Engdal is always impressive as well.
I do think that Jim will get it though. Finally.
It's an uphill battle for Jim, quite literally. The issue is the change in the nature of the course once you start the climb up to Champex. That last ~50k favors rugged mountain trail running talent over the raw (traditional) running talent Jim possesses. He had a strong lead (~15 min) going into it last year but still imploded - even if Kilian wasn't there he still would have ended up third. Hopefully he's re-focussed his training this year to address that, but sometimes there's only so much you can do. His naturally 'bouncy' stride really works against him here.
On the men's side, don't forget the french they're always present, Garivier could do something.
Petter Engdal is always impressive as well.
I do think that Jim will get it though. Finally.
It's an uphill battle for Jim, quite literally. The issue is the change in the nature of the course once you start the climb up to Champex. That last ~50k favors rugged mountain trail running talent over the raw (traditional) running talent Jim possesses. He had a strong lead (~15 min) going into it last year but still imploded - even if Kilian wasn't there he still would have ended up third. Hopefully he's re-focussed his training this year to address that, but sometimes there's only so much you can do. His naturally 'bouncy' stride really works against him here.
Why did he waste all those years dominating WSER and other fast flat ultras instead of focusing of Hard Rock? He could've gotten the rugged mountain trail training without having to move to France. Seemed like a good few years of dedicated Hard Rock training would've given him a massive advantage when he transitioned to UTMB.
If he doesn't win it this year I don't think he's ever going to win it and he's going to become irrelevant within the next few years. He's getting older, the newer crops of ultrarunners are getting faster each year, and there are more of them. Jim needs to put on his big boi pants, stop blowing up, and get to work.
It's an uphill battle for Jim, quite literally. The issue is the change in the nature of the course once you start the climb up to Champex. That last ~50k favors rugged mountain trail running talent over the raw (traditional) running talent Jim possesses. He had a strong lead (~15 min) going into it last year but still imploded - even if Kilian wasn't there he still would have ended up third. Hopefully he's re-focussed his training this year to address that, but sometimes there's only so much you can do. His naturally 'bouncy' stride really works against him here.
Why did he waste all those years dominating WSER and other fast flat ultras instead of focusing of Hard Rock? He could've gotten the rugged mountain trail training without having to move to France. Seemed like a good few years of dedicated Hard Rock training would've given him a massive advantage when he transitioned to UTMB.
If he doesn't win it this year I don't think he's ever going to win it and he's going to become irrelevant within the next few years. He's getting older, the newer crops of ultrarunners are getting faster each year, and there are more of them. Jim needs to put on his big boi pants, stop blowing up, and get to work.
Because you can do good at both, not mutually exclusive. Look at Courtney, Rory, Kilian, Walmsley, etc. You can win Western and you can win UTMB. Nothing says you can't.
1) You don't just run Hardrock because you want to - there's an extraordinarily difficult lottery to deal with and no such thing as 'comp' entries for elites.
2) He did in fact spend a summer or two training/camping around Silverton in preparation for UTMB but it still didn't help. My theory is he literally wore himself out with the combination of huge training volume (he did not scale back to account for the altitude) along with the camping. That may sound confusing, but for years I've done 10 day "training camps" myself down there, usually staying in cheap lodging (nearly impossible now) and/or car-camping in some form, and every time I've returned home completely exhausted. Sleeping outside in the cold (yes, it's relatively cold at night even in the summer) slowly drains it out of you, especially after big training runs. In my case, being only 10 day stretches, I've recovered and felt stronger from it. But in his case, he was there like 5-6 weeks with a training volume up to double mine at times.
Personally, I don't think its just his stride but those big ol foam bricks. Still, I think he wins it this year but it will be kinda tragic if he doesn't. Not sure what will happen to the guys career if he comes up short again after putting so much focus on this one race.
Sage Canaday is on fire right now going from 36th to 10th rank at 51 of 150 km, this is the comeback we need for Sage, any distance any surface, butter my bread
It's an uphill battle for Jim, quite literally. The issue is the change in the nature of the course once you start the climb up to Champex. That last ~50k favors rugged mountain trail running talent over the raw (traditional) running talent Jim possesses. He had a strong lead (~15 min) going into it last year but still imploded - even if Kilian wasn't there he still would have ended up third. Hopefully he's re-focussed his training this year to address that, but sometimes there's only so much you can do. His naturally 'bouncy' stride really works against him here.
Why did he waste all those years dominating WSER and other fast flat ultras instead of focusing of Hard Rock? He could've gotten the rugged mountain trail training without having to move to France. Seemed like a good few years of dedicated Hard Rock training would've given him a massive advantage when he transitioned to UTMB.
If he doesn't win it this year I don't think he's ever going to win it and he's going to become irrelevant within the next few years. He's getting older, the newer crops of ultrarunners are getting faster each year, and there are more of them. Jim needs to put on his big boi pants, stop blowing up, and get to work.
My man wins Istria, but he’s irrelevant. That’s just crazy talk. Jim could quite literally line up and win any race in the world with 8-10 weeks to prepare, and I don’t see that changing for another 5-7 years or more.
UTMB presents so many unique challenges that it’s quite difficult to get right. Only a few have managed to repeat wins on that course, and each year 10-12 top tier runners are chewed up and spit out. I think this is the year that Jim finally gets it right.
--My pick for women is Courtney. I know that's basic (I'll make some more insane predictions in a bit) but she either wins or she will drop. --Men's winner will be Benat Marmissolle. He's got the mountain legs and knowledge of this course.
What I'm excited to see is the elite runners from China. I enjoy the coverage of the races and seeing people we don't get at many races in America. I think Fu-Zhao Xiang will be a good wild card. She improves each year she runs UTMB. Hoka has a couple Chinese men who will run: Zhao and Duo.
As far as Walmsley, I don't think he's going to do it, but I would like to be proven wrong. He just has a tough time cracking races and this one is a tough one. I think Ben Dhiman will beat him as the highest ranked American man.
Personally, I don't think its just his stride but those big ol foam bricks. Still, I think he wins it this year but it will be kinda tragic if he doesn't. Not sure what will happen to the guys career if he comes up short again after putting so much focus on this one race.
If he comes up short again at UTMB, that would be painful and would suck, but can't believe it would be anything near the end of his career. He still wins big races and is one of the fastest ultrarunners on the planet, getting plenty of ink and screen time for his sponsors. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Personally, I don't think its just his stride but those big ol foam bricks. Still, I think he wins it this year but it will be kinda tragic if he doesn't. Not sure what will happen to the guys career if he comes up short again after putting so much focus on this one race.
If he comes up short again at UTMB, that would be painful and would suck, but can't believe it would be anything near the end of his career. He still wins big races and is one of the fastest ultrarunners on the planet, getting plenty of ink and screen time for his sponsors. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Even if Walmsley comes up short at UTMB this year, I think that he has plenty of great races ahead of him at UTMB and elsewhere. He is only 33 years old and has several years where he can compete against the best. Kilian is 35 and Francois is 37 both winning UTMB older than Walmsley will be next year.
I hope he gets it this year, but if he doesn't he will still have a good chance for a few more years.
I more mean how he will take it. He's now been living there for 2 seasons focusing on this one race. What it might do to him mentally. Plenty of ultra runners of the past have burned themselves out doing what he is doing, never to really return to form.
I more mean how he will take it. He's now been living there for 2 seasons focusing on this one race. What it might do to him mentally. Plenty of ultra runners of the past have burned themselves out doing what he is doing, never to really return to form.
Oh, yeah, that is a good take. It took him three tries with Western States, but I wouldn't want to be in that headspace of thinking I'm cursed to always take three years to get it right.
Sage Canaday is on fire right now going from 36th to 10th rank at 51 of 150 km, this is the comeback we need for Sage, any distance any surface, butter my bread
Well and this will be his 5th time running UTMB. I'd like to believe he would still have it in him to keep going if he "fails" again but at what point do you just move on, ya know?
Also gonna go with Tom Evans or Jim FTW on the mens side. Would say Blanchard, but since he kind of blew up at states I feel his bounceback is going to be tough, and that's a huge effort to have in the legs that he didn't have last year. Bullish on Tom in every race he enters, and even more so after another year of healthy training under the best mountain coach in the biz. 2nd for Jim if Tom wins, and Zach Miller in top 5. Feels dumb to bet against Courtney at this point...
Sage Canaday is on fire right now going from 36th to 10th rank at 51 of 150 km, this is the comeback we need for Sage, any distance any surface, butter my bread
Looks like he’s got some “serious” crew support.
Congratulations to our man Sage Canaday for a 12th-place finish in TDS today. Sounds like brutal conditions for all, and he moved up consistently through the race.
Congrats to Sage, good to see you running strong again!
I feel Tom Evans on the men’s side and Courtney on the women’s side are hard to go against. They seem to be able to bounce back and continue to dominate. Would love to see Jim finally pull it off though. I believe he’s done more skimo over the winter too, which I think is a key advantage the Euro guys usually have.
