After worrying about how hard it is to front run for more than a year, we say he gets the job done. What say you? Read our preview and vote in our poll and then explain yourself.
Might be a hot take, but I also predict that the guy who has dominated every 1500 run in the last 6 months will win!
Will he win? Middle distance events are notoriously unpredictable. But it is certainly his to lose. He's been on fire this season and oozes confidence while the competition is hoping a chink in his armour shows on the day.
Even his interview comment about being his own pacemaker indicates he's not going to shy away from turning it into the type of race that suits him.
Who will win, my 98 year old grandfather or pancreatic cancer? Vote now!
Neither Girma nor El Bakkali will win the 1500...
I just added in a new poll at the bottom of the article. If he doesn't win, who does?
If Stewy takes it out, Ingebrigtsen, Gourley, Katir
Who tf is Will Ingebritsen?
SGv wrote:
If Stewy takes it out, Ingebrigtsen, Gourley, Katir
Zero chance Gourley beats Nuguse in this scenario.
another one? wrote:
Who tf is Will Ingebritsen?
William, 10 years old Ingebrigtsen born in 2013. Might be a bit young to win that though.
another one? wrote:
Who tf is Will Ingebritsen?
Jakob's youngest brother, William.
It will be a perfect day for Norway. First gold and silver in the 1500. And half an hour later gold 400 hurdles.
Jakob is about the surest pick to win any track event, IMHO. Mondo & Crouser in the field events.
Jakob will win. Methodically dictating from the front is by far the best strategy when you are a prodigy with the most talent in the field. Thankfully he understands that. Jakob would only be vulnerable if he ran like an American from the back, tossing away his advantage by enabling unnecessary complications.
Mu's absence all year is damaging in that it removes that frequent sight of controlling from the front. Americans have been brainwashed since grade school to gush over late rallies. When Americans show up in the junior events you know darn well they'll settle in the back. With Ethiopians the names don't matter at all. Those juniors will race at the front.
Jakob got cocky last year, unconcerned when Wightman drew alongside. Wightman used the perfect surprise tactic of doing it in two stages. He settled first, prompting Jakob to believe he would remain there, slightly behind. Once Jakob relaxed, Wightman surged again. Game over.
Jakob will use that example to make sure he has greater margin. He'll look at the screen and try to maintain at least 2 meters. The tactics are similar to Farah but Farah could outsprint anyone so he didn't care if the chief threats were slightly back.
If Jakob loses it's going to require an unusual tactic that isn't foreseeable right now.
13579 wrote:
Jakob is about the surest pick to win any track event, IMHO. Mondo & Crouser in the field events.
Jakob’s countryman, Warholm, also is a pretty sure thing.
I'm backing Gourleys championship experience for getting through the rounds more smoothly, patience and positioning
rojo wrote:
After worrying about how hard it is to front run for more than a year, we say he gets the job done. What say you? Read our preview and vote in our poll and then explain yourself.
The only real question to discuss here is how many water breaks Jakob takes en route to victory.
I don't see how Jakob loses. He's probably as good as el G was in 2000. But he has no Ngeny type rival breathing down his neck.
Only way he loses is if he goes out in something like 3:34 pace and relies on his kick. But he won't do this. Maybe we'll see another 3:27 like el G in '99.
My prediction for the Worlds 1500:
Jakob Ingebrigtsen - 3:29.02
Mohamed Katir - 3:29.71
Yared Nuguse - 3:30.20
Tim and Stewy take turns leading up to about 800 metres in a pretty fast pace, then Jakob throws down the gauntlet and Katir is the only one brave enough to go with him. With 150 to go, Katir tries sneaking up on the inside and that pisses off Jakob, who surges one more time as he gaps Katir on the home straight. Nuguse closes hard and overtakes front-runners such as Cheruiyot, Kipsang and Kerr in the final 300 metres for bronze.
Surprise can happens. It's possible some runners peak or reveal a new level during the competition.
Why not this Anass Essayi peaking and learning from his past experiences.
Could be Neguse or Josh (forgot his name) making some surprising runs in the final.
The guys that have more pressures on them are Jakob and Katir.
