Most likely Budapest 2023 golds (ordered/descending)

I actually would put Bol #1. With McLaughlin out of the race, who is even going to finish within 2 seconds of her? Unless she hits a hurdle and goes down (I don't think she ever has), I do not see her losing.

While Duplantis is a HUGE favorite to win, the pole vault is one of those events where you can easily have an off day and lose. Bubka was World Champion in '83, '87, '91, '93, '95, and '97 and won the Olympics in '88. However, he no-heighted in '92 in Barcelona. If it can happen to him, it can happen to anyone.

I think I would put Bol and Crouser at #1. Duplantis is a big favorite, but things happen in the pole vault and he just lost a few weeks back.

Warholm is too high. Lyles in the 200 should be in the list, also Holloway in the 110mH.

Bol and warholm ahead of kipyegon. She's still gonna win but they're ahead of her.

He also lost to Kendricks at worlds in 2019

Lyles isn't in the same position someone like Crouser or Kipyegon is in, and truthfully I wouldn't even consider Holloway the favorite. Broadbell has the WL and is Jamaican periodizarion in the past is anything to speak about, he's gonna be looking for a WR in Budapest.

For the track events I would say:
1. 400mH - Bol - Super stable, no one even close
2. 1500 - Kipyegon - Obviously huge favorite, but world class competition allows a smaller margin of error compared to Bol
3. 1500 - Ingebrigtsen - Big favorite vs. any one of the other runners, but the depth of the 1500m has been extreme this year. Vs. the field, there is always the chance that someone run the race of their lives and could challenge when Jakob has to do all the work himself.

4/5. 400mH - Warholm / 200m - Lyles - I don't think Warholm is any bigger favorite vs. Rai (and potentially Dos Santos) than what Lyles is in the 200.

Skipping field since I don’t watch it. If I were betting my own cash:

Bol 400h

Kipyegon 1500

Ingebritsen 1500

Warholm 400h

Paulino 400 (with Sydney out and SMU probably not in shape yet)

Unlike some of you, I would put Warholm/400h near the bottom of the events in which there are obvious favorites. Benjamin ran a 44.21 PB in the flat 400 in April and looked so smooth running 46.62 at USAs while supposedly not at full fitness.

46.62 is only .11 slower than Warholm’s SB, and Warholm’s only run faster than 46.62 three times in his life. Warholm’s only run faster than Benjamin’s 46.17 PB once in his life. So if training is going well, Benjamin might arrive in Budapest in 46-low shape and ready to give Warholm a real run for it.

Least likely to get a single medal in mid-d/distance events: the United States.

For me it is Femke Bol and Ryan Crouser

Discus Men: Christian Ceh looks like a strong favorite as well.

If he has one good throw, he s golden. It s not 100% though.

I agree. That’s why he’s my #4 pick. The top 2 are almost a lock and #3 I feel pretty good about. It drops off considerably after that.

Yeah question isn't ultimately about the athlete and their level it's about how bulletproof that level is compared to the field and the nuances of their events.

For example that's why I agree that even though Duplantis is the greatest ever and a heavy favourite, he simply can't be top of the list. In his case it's not so much about his competitors but the nature of the event. Little things like countback which come into play in the PV (precisely how Duplantis lost in 2019 to Kendricks) - don't make anyone else a favorite or even reduce that favoritism in the event, they just impact it when comparing to other events (like on the track). In the horizontal jumps you have a board to hit and even the best could have a day where they physically jump further than everyone else but not with respect to where they are measured from (the board). Sprints have the variable of the false start and hurdles have the hurdles which we have seen take bodies before (Gail Devers 1992 anyone?)

For that reason Kipyegon tops the list in the 1500m. I know Hassan is technically entered but I don't think we see her run this event but even if she did, Kipyegon is so far ahead of anyone including her it's insane. And unlike Jakob who could find himself compromised if the race inexplicably followed a different script to what suits him, there is really no type of race that compromises her. I'm certain she's the fastest 800m runner there with the best anaerobic power which mean surges and an accelerations are easy for her and she has the best aerobic capacity and threshold of the field which means if it's just fast and even it's even easier. Slow race, fast race, race of pace fluctuations she is in my opinion the most likely gold.

Bol is relatively as dominant without our favorite "gods plan" no-show SMG. I only put her second because there is a chance - albeit insanely low, that something goes down with the barriers she has to clear.

Crouser - he hasn't lost this season and in his event where he gets basically 6 shots at getting it right, his "right" is the best in the field and it's hard to imagine he doesn't execute well enough, especially since 2020 he hasn't failed to in any major meeting. I think his competitors have the ceilings to be closer to him than Kipyegon and Bol which I why I put him 3.

Duplantis at 4, Warholm 5 - just because Rai and Dos Santos are really good, I wish Benjamin didn't think he was a rock star and only competed when he "gets paid" - I think his lack of racing is not helping him get any closer to KW who shows up like a champion and has exposure to those trying to beat him often. Jakob at 6 - like I personally think he's a lock but the men's 1500m is ultimately a deep and truly competitive event that isn't in lanes and that needs to be respected. Rojas 7, Lyles 8 - after that I can't be bothered thinking about anyone else.

Honestly I think Kipyegon and Bol are quite clearly out in front on this list with daylight to the next 6 who for me at least are almost all the same in terms of a "likelihood percentage" if there was one. You could make a case to rearrange them in any order between 3 and 8 and I would be fine with that. All just personal opinion anyway and therefore there is no right or wrong answer - including mine :)

Why don’t you watch field events? Do you have better things to do?

1. Crouser

2. Kipyegon

3. Bol

4. Duplantis

5. Barshim

Bol clipped a hurdle and did a face plant in a Young Diamond League race in 2019:

I would not place Bol at the top or near the very top. I don't care what it looks like versus the field. During 24 years in Las Vegas as sports bettor I saw people get burned by this scenario so many times in various sports and also in horse racing. I was burned myself a few times before I sharpened up.

When the unquestioned #1 is out, you can't drop down to the clear #2 and assume it's the same level of dominance and likelihood. You're just asking for trouble. There's a reason they are second and not first.

I'm a Bol fan. Meanwhile she does not own a world championship gold or Olympic gold. If I'm putting my trust in anyone it's going to be Faith Kipyegon, who is in her prime, the best of all time, and already owns multiple gold in both competitions.

Predictions (gold, silver and bronze medal) from marathon to 400m.

-Marathon:

Men

1) T.Kiplagat

2) T.Getachew

3) T.Kipruto

Women

??

-10.000m

Men

1) J.Cheptegei

2) J.Kiplimo

3) S.Barega

Women

1) L.Gidey

2) S.Hassan

3) H.Obiri

-5000m

Men

1) B.Aregawi

2) Y.Kejelcha

3) H.Gebhriwet

Women

1) F.Kypegon

2) G.Tsegay

3) B.Chebet

-3000m splc

Men

1) S.El Bakkali

2) L.Girma

3) C.Kipruto

Women

1) N.Jeruto

2) W.Getachew

3) M.Abebe

-1500m

Men

1) J.Ingebrigtsen

2) M.Katir

3) Y.Nuguse

Women

1) F.Kypiegon

2) G.Tsegay

3) L.Miur

-800m

Men

1) W.Kyniamal

2) E.Wanyionil

3) D.Sedjati

Women

1) M.Moiraa

2) K.Hogdkinson

3) D.Welteji

-400m Hurdles

Men

1) K.Warholm

2) R. Benjamin

3) A.Dos Santos

Women

1) F.Bol

2) D.Muhammad

3) S.Little

-400m

Men

1) S.Gardiner

2) W.Van Niekerk

3) M.Samukonga

Women

1) M.Paulino

2) B.Wilson

3) Miller-Uibo

Some of the people on your list are not even running

Do you really know your sport?

I get that the ability for clipping a hurdle to negate all advantage or change the outcome of a race has to factor in, but Femke's superiority time-wise in the 400H is like if Kipyegon had a 10 second faster PR than anyone else in the 1500m field.