The 5000m final at worlds will be won in sub 12:40

But, as you said, maybe they are content with silver!?!

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the fastest 5000m run without pacemakers Bekele's 12:57 in Beijing or Choge's 12:56 in the 2006 Commonwealths?

For them to run 20 seconds faster is a stretch. Keep in mind that they're also competing for the minor medals, so for a group (i.e. Ugandans or Ethiopians) to sacrifice themselves to keep the pace that fast doesn't seem likely and would frankly be quite stupid on their part. They must know that whatever pace they set, they aren't going to run away from Jakob given the fact that he just obliterated the world record for 2 miles.

Kipchoge's 12:52 in 2003 afaik is the current "championship" record. This seems likely to go down but no is breaking 12:40. Clown prediction!

Why do you frame it this way with this presupposition ?

For me, this is clearly a psychological projection that has a lot behind it.

And a fair few of the athletes are doubling back from either the 1500m or 10,000m, not just Jakob.

While I agree with your predicted outcome, I don't agree with the process.

In a non-paced championship setting, murderous pace is just another way of saying bad pacing, with early accumulation and running most of the 5000 with a higher average lactate than normal, resulting in a slower final time.

In the 5000 Jakob has shown, on multiple occasions, that 1) he's acutely aware of his own limits and 2) that he doesn't get stressed out by race dynamics. Take the U20 WC in Tampere, or DL Florence as examples. Gaps start appearing but he sticks to the plan and catches up later.

I don't see how he fails to close the gap, even if three Ethiopians run a team time trial up front and he runs in no-mans-land with Katir on his tail.

Also, the Ugandans and Kenyans aren't letting the Ethiopians get away for free, so they'll make sure someone is closing any gaps that appear in the first 3k.

When it comes to the finish it will be a repeat of Eugene. Jakob takes the lead with 1k-800m to go, and churns out a 2:22.0 for a 12:53.0 win.

Ok?

Fragile flower

I'll be in Budapest that day watching this event at the stadium. The winner of the 5000m is actually going to be Aregawi who has the right speed to keep behind the norwegian and the others.

It won't go much below 13-flat. Race calculations come into play in the championships when only top-3 matters. In a DL, taking out it out hard fading doesn't matter, an athlete dusts themselves down and goes again with nothing lost except a little prize money. But a medal is different. Who wants to go out and grind from the front knowing there is a high likelihood that others will sit on them and out-kick them? No one wants to be the pawn. And currently, no one is so much better than the field to go out and grind down everyone else.

Still, I don't think it's Jakob for the gold and no one else gets a look-in. Katir and Kiplimo are capable of dropping a 2:25 final km off a 13-minute pace, and I also think Abdi Nur can compete with them, especially as he'll be fresh from not doubling. I think those three, plus Jakob are where the medals will go, it's just a question of who misses out.

Set a pace where a guy who ran 7:54 for two miles can’t keep up?

First, you need guys to make the final.

Then you need a super fit guy, who trained his life for this moment, to sacrifice himself to set a fast pace for others for an extended period.

Then you need another super fit guy to hold off that 7:54 two miler guy.

If Kenya sacrifice their n3 runner who have a modest PB (13:00) for the first half, then we could see a very fast race like 12:45-12:50 with ethiopians relaying in the last 2k.

I doubt one of the ethiopians will sacrifice from the start though, so if Kenya doesn't care, it will probably be a jog. What about Uganda? I don't know who is the 3rd on the team. Chelimo raced only once this summer, a 7:44 3000.

Doubtful. The top people in the world are running low 12:40's with multiple pacers doing a good pace job. Meaning none of them lead for more than a few laps at the end. Anyone leading multiple laps early isn't going to run low 12:40's, and someone that fast isn't going to be that dumb to set it up perfectly for other people to run fast. You usually only see fast races like that when there are a few guys at a certain level and they want to get everyone else out early. But right now you have tons of guys capable of running 12:50, they're not going to run away from the pack unless they go a pace that even they themselves can't run. It'll probably be similar to last year, 13:00-13:10 pace most of the race and a big last few laps to run 12:50's.

A 7:54 isn’t necessarily better than 12:40.

It was a very weak record.

Jakob May be in 12:40 shape but I don’t see him easily running away from guy like Kejelcha who ran 3:47 indoors a few years ago and seems to be sub 3:30 shape now.

5000m will be the 4th or 5th race of Jacob in a week (or at most 10 days).

Add to that the energy he will put to counter Katir/Nuguse in the final 1500m.
Do you see him perform 7:54 in that final world championships?

7:54 was done the same day where two East Africans run 12:41 in a 5000m.

> There will likely be unethical collusion in 1500m. There does not appear to be anyone capable of beating J Ingebrigtsen in a fast 1500m race.

> Some athletes race 3000m & 5000m at nearly the same pace. I do not believe J Ingebrigsten is one of those athletes. I believe he has limited 5000m talent, limited in a fast 5000m race.

> The legit sub-12:45 5000m men do not want to be embarrassed. J Ingebrigsten isn't a sprinter but he is capable of a sub-2:20 final 1000m. In a championship 5000m final, usually the men want to remain comfortably aerobic through (4100 or 4200)m. J Ingebrigtsen will embarrass the guys if 4000m is not split at sub-62/lap pace. It will not surprise me if Stewart McSweyn throws sacrifices himself in 1500m in order for J Ingebrigtsen to earn gold. Men will need to sacrifice themselves in 5000m to prevent J Ingebrigtsen from earning 5000m gold.

No, this is not the way to beat Jakob. Even if the others conspire to run 12:40, if the race is fast but evenly paced, Jakob is just going to be just off the lead and then close it down at the end and win. Rather, the way to get this done is to have it run erratically, with injections of pace here and there and create moves that Jakob has to respond to more than once. You know, drop a 58 out of the blue and then back off, and then again before the end. Maybe guys like Kiplimo and Aregawi and Kejelcha will be better able to handle this and Jakob won’t be able to keep covering even if the final time is closer to 13 min. Maybe. If the pace is super fast, but steady or slow and steady, Jakob wins for sure.

How many times in the Mo Farah era did we hear "The Africans are going to make it a fast race this year!!!!111!1!111"

Lmao no. "The Africans" don't think this way or operate as one team.

OP is correct mentioning 1500 for the Norwegian. Thus, as it often happens at the Worlds and Olympics, not all the runners are in equal conditions. Of course, it is their own choice, but it matters whether the final 5K is your 2nd or 5th run in 10 days or so.