When will a women break 4:00 for the mile?

It took 20 years for the male record to go from 4:06 to 3:59. Also, the first guys to break 4:00 were all 1:50-1:52 guys. Need a Semenya or Mu type talent to do it.

Never. I can’t believe this is even a question.

When someone runs one sufficiently downhill or downwind. Maybe that can be Shelly Houlihan's next Strava record.

Tuohy will do it in 5 years. She has shown steady improvement year after year.

i think if there's another tech advancement similar to super shoes that give us another few % efficiency, plus improvements in training + knowledge, could happen in next 50-75 years. the tech/shoe advancement would be necessary though

Semenya is a biological male...

I think Faith could drop her 1500m time another couple of seconds within the next 2 years to a 3:47 which would be the equivalent of about a 4:05 mile. From there it would require another couple of super talents to emerge before a sub 4 would be a real possibility. My guess is 2035

Semenya is intersex, meaning she exhibits some male traits and some female, e.g. she has a vagina (or at least vulva), not a penis or descended testicles. However she does not appear to possess ovaries, instead having undescended testicles producing high levels testosterone, and there is some evidence she has XY chromosomes (although as far as I am aware, that has never been officially confirmed, merely insinuated). Regardless, she is incapable of breaking 4:00 in the mile and unrelated to this discussion.

Personally I think it will take much longer than 20 years for a woman to break 4:00. The progression of the mile world record is fairly erratic because it is not often run. The women’s record for 1500m has progressed 7 seconds over the last 47 years. Even if we assumes linear progression, it will take at least 50 years. I expect it may take much longer.

Good question/thread.

This caused me to ponder how many years it has taken for W to catch up to M over a wide range of events. For example, when was the Mile WR 4:07 for M? When was the 10000m WR 29:01 for M? Etc etc.

This exercise might inform when we shall see a W sub 4min Mile.

I'll work on this and report back.......

What is a woman?

I don’t think the logic follows whatsoever but visiting Wiki articles “800/1500/5000/etc. World Record Progression” will make this quick and easy for you.

Jack Lovelock (1936 Olympic 1500 champ from New Zealand) ran a 4:07.6 mile WR in July of 1933 in Princeton, New Jersey.

So that’s 90 years ago. But there are way too many variables at play for that to give us any meaningful insight.

Hard to say.

If I had to ballpark it, maybe the next 50 years?

***Quotes himself. Bad form. Sue me.***

Very roughly speaking, Women are "behind" (terrible word - I can't think of a better phrasing right now) Men by anywhere from 51 years (3000m) to 90 years (1500m/Mile). I think the median of the lag from M to W over 100m to 10000m is around 73 years.

But, it was about 90 years ago that M were running what the W are now doing (ie Kipyegon) in the 1500m/Mile.

It was 69 years ago that M did sub4min Mile.

90 minus 69 = 21.

I say 21 ish years until we see a W sub4min Mile. 2044.

Discus.

4:07-Jack Lovelock-1933

->
3:59-Roger Bannister, 1954

So took around 21 years to reduce it from 4:07-3:59 for men. Could take longer to women because naturally world record progression has largely slowed with time due to the refinement of training, shoes, etc. Although, important to note, this period was broken by WW2 and its aftermath which slowed many world record progressions. Hard to tell. As the record is now under 4:10 I feel like people will start considering sub 4 for a woman as possible, and I certainly dont think it’s ridiculous to say it is. I would guess ~30 years before woman sub 4. Those who say a certain mark is “impossible” are almost always proven wrong within enough time.

It will surely be argued that 90 years ago the tracks / shoes / training methods / financial supports were absolute shyte compared with today for the 1930s Men running at/near 4:07 Miles and 3:49 1500m.

Therefore, my aforementioned 21 years could easily be cut in half? Two thirds?

Most importantly, I think that after 4:07 the Dream Is On. Women are less than 50m away from this iconic barrier that has always been the purview of Men. It's not a century away. Or 50 years away. It will happen. Maybe in my lifetime. (I'm 61.)

Perfect! You and I are posting/pontificating similar philosophies simultaneously. I love this thread/question.

Pretty sure all those developments in the 90 years have the opposite effect: there won’t be such rapid progress attributable to all-weather tracks, training methods, financial support etc.

And there’s the fact that it’s taken 27 years for the women’s record to improve by 4.8 seconds, and 30 years for the mile record to improve upon Yunxia’s 1500-mile-conversion by about a second. Even 43 years ago Kazankina was running a 4:11.0 mile equivalent. I see no reason that the rate of improvement would increase.

Women are not men living some 60-100 years in the past…

When will douche-bros learn the difference between woman (singular) and women (plural)?

I'll bet on never.