What WRs could Jakob *not* threaten between 1500-10km?

Mile or 10k to me seem the most unlikely to happen, however he probably has the ability to break both, especially mile. Only reason to me 10k seems so unlikely is that 10k time trials aren't really that common; I see him doing the 10k eventually the way he currently does the 5k: only ever really doing it in championships.

none

1500m

Mile

3000m

3000m SC

10000m

I wonder how he'd do in the Steeple. He hasn't competed in one in 6 years, so who knows how his mechanics are.

This was my list. I don’t really think he’s threatening the 5k either but I’ll be conservative.

He is too confident on his endurance, that could be a big disapointment for him if he is going to higher distances.

I don't guarantee a win for him in 3000m flat against Girma in a a pace of 7:20/21.

Same thing with the 5000m with one of these East Africans at a pace 12:35 and if they are in their day.

how can you have a list including the 3000?

Besides, OP said "threaten" not "beat". Also OP seems to imply "in his whole carreer". Jakob isn't even focusing on the 5k and already dominating 12:35-40 guys there. What do you think will happen when he shift his focus to the 5k/10k?

Jakob will be able to threaten all of those in his career. Maybe not beat them all but threaten for sure. So answer is : none.

Sorry. I meant to agree with 3k. He could threaten that.

“Dominating” a 12:35 dude in a 13:10 race is not dominating a 5k guy in a 12:35 race. Those other guys hadn’t run 12:40 yet.

If Jacob races Donovan Brazier in a 3:38 race he would get dominated every time. That doesn’t make Brazier a 3:26 dude by proxy.

Oh. And Cheptegei hasn’t shown anything resembling 12:35 fitness in 3 years now.

How could he not threaten the 3k WR? He ran like 7:21.3 for the last 3k of his 2-mile, a race where he averaged 7:21.89 3k pace and split ~3:53.8 for the second mile.

3:27.14 is getting damn close to threatening the 1500 WR, and I think the mile is a slightly weaker record, so I don’t doubt he can threaten those in the next few years.

The answer to the question for me is 10k and steeplechase*. I think he can be a force in championship 10ks but I don’t think he’ll be as good at 10k as 1500-5k, particularly in as far as approaching the WR. I put an asterisk on the steeplechase because maybe he could threaten the record if he completely dedicated himself to the steeple, but he won’t. Any ideas he has about threatening the marathon record I put down to bluster and naïveté.

He just ran 12:41 with the last 3k in 7:31 and the last 4k in 10:05 (12:36 pace). I’d say that’s something resembling 12:35 fitness.

He dominated them also in a 12:48 race. Actually pace doesn't really matter as he is a 7:20 3000 guy. There is no way he isn't at the very least a 12:40 guy now, let alone in a few years.

Also, Brazier wouldn't dominate Jakob in a 3:38 race. That's quite close to all out for brazier. In a 4:00 race, yes, everytime.

I really don’t think he has the ability to break the world record in the 10k. A 26:11 10k is a better result than a 3:27 1500m and equally strong to his 7:54 2-mile. Do we think he’s better at the 10k than the 1500m?

Jakob is already the greatest 1500m/3k/5k guy ever. I still think Kenenisa is the best 5k guy and Hicham/Coe are the best 1500m runners, but Jakob is the greatest in total ability across these distances.

However the thought that he’s a better 10k runner than Haile Gebrselassie, Kenenisa Bekele, or even Joshua Cheptegei is absurd. Jakob would likely have very similar 10k ability to Mo Farah, where he he can win an Olympic title and likely run in the 26:30-40 10k range. Maybe 26:25 at a push.

But he’s not running under 26:11 in the 10k. I mean how often do 1500/3k guys get waxed in a 10k? And I think he’d do better than most, but, no, he’s not secretly the best ever 10k runner. I mean, I’m not even certain he can run a 12:34 5k like everyone is assuming.

“Jakob can break the 10k world record” feels like telling Jeremy Wariner to move up to the 800m and break the world record.

J Ingebrigtsen will NOT break 10000m w.r. He will not come close. He is too big/too heavy

Not even focusing on the 5k? He’s already running 120 miles a week and double thresholds lmao. Yes the 1500n is his preferred distance, but he’s not leaving any endurance stones unturned

To borrow a page from Ruxton Towers XC’s book, I think we need to define “threaten.” Does it mean coming within a second of the WR, within half a second, within a quarter-second? My answers to the OP’s question would vary based on which definition is used.

Also: Does the proximity to the record needed to be considered a threat increase for longer distances? If so, how? For example, when Bekele came within 2 seconds of matching Kipchoge’s then-2:01:39 marathon record, I think most of us would agree he threatened the record. But being within 2 seconds of the 1500 record, as Jakob already is, isn’t a threat in my mind.

there is not much difference between the 5k and 10k. He is also too heavy for the 5k but that doesn't seem to be a problem.

I don't see either of those (1500m or 3000m split) to be threatening.

The nuance is in the "focusing". His overall training suits the 5000 very well. But still he is training mainly for the 1500 and racing almost only the 1500 at the moment. I doubt he is doing very specific workouts for 5k races at the moment, the kind of workouts you do to be ready for a big time trial.