The field is:
Jakob Ingebrigsten (2020)
Matthew Centrowitz (2016)
Taoufik Makhloufi (2012)
Asbel Kiprop (2008)
Hicham El Guerrouj (2004)
Noah Ngeny (2000)
Noureddine Morceli (1996)
Fermin Cacho (1992)
Peter Romo (1988)
Seb Coe (1984)
Seb Coe (1980)
John Walker (1976)
The Seb Coes using team tactics would add an interesting dynamic
El G is my default pick but it’s hard to look at any of these guys and say they couldn’t win.
"In their prime" translates to "the fastest they ever ran." There is literally nothing more prime than the day you ran the fastest race in your life.
So, for this race and any other hypothetical like this, the fastest guy wins. The slowest guy comes in last.
/endthread
that's maybe true in a 5k or a 10k but a 1500 is tactical. even if you are the fastest in the field you might not win if you have to run 30 metres further in lane 2. like jacob and jake wightman last year. jacob is the faster athlete, didn't win.
Makh was an absolute monster "in his prime". If we're using the same testing protocols, I'd take Makh.
El Guerrouj. He has the world record (i.e. the ability to win a fast race) and closed his Olympic gold in under 1:47 (off of around 4 flat pace for the first ~700)
He'll always own an Olympic gold medal so this isn't TOO much of a diss, but I am confident Centrodoof would be dead last
is that pronounced Taoufik Makhloufi or Taoufik Makhloufi
sdfsf wrote:
is that pronounced Taoufik Makhloufi or Taoufik Makhloufi
Taoufik Makhloufi, duh.
I mostly agree, but couldn't "in their prime" also mean "at their most dominant"?
If you look at the NFL, hall of fame level cornerbacks who are in their prime just don't get targeted much. So, they won't rack up certain gaudy stats (like Trevon Diggs with 11 interceptions) but they'll still have controlled the game and dominated any receiver so much that the QB couldn't throw to them.
If Morceli had pacers through 1200 instead of 900 and he had the shoes, I think he'd beat Jakob a large majority of the time.
Centro wins without a doubt. He's the best mid distance runner ever and his 2016 Olympics is the most impressive race in T&F history.
He destroys everyone by 1+ seconds.
Centro gets out front right at the start and spreads his arms out and zig zags. The sheer absurdity causes the other runners to stay back for a bit and see wtf is going on. Nobody wants to be the first guy to try to pass and get blocked while everyone else speeds past on the other side.
He successfully slows the pace down to ~3:40. All according to plan for the tactical race master himself.
The proposed assumption is they are all "in their prime."
El G ran 3:26 in his prime.
Which runner, in his prime, ran faster than that?
Again,
/endthread
but that 3:26 was a perfectly set up race for him and he was 50 metres ahead at the finish line, he had no real competition. with 11 other guys as fast as him (bar maybe 1-2 seconds), he wouldn't be able to sit on the shoulder, kick when he wanted and have it all his own way.
This would be a bloodbath. As much as I love Centro, I think he'd be spit out the back with Peter Rono. I see the real battle upfront being a match between Jakob, El G, and Morceli for the lead with El G taking it. I think those three would focus too much on each other and I actually think Noah Ngeny would end up winning, riding a hot pace but hanging tough while all the others fade away or waste their kick trying to hang.
1st Noah Ngeny 3:27.24
2nd Jakob Ingebrigsten 3:27.56
3rd Noureddine Morceli 3:28.45
crisscrosscountry wrote:
This would be a bloodbath. As much as I love Centro, I think he'd be spit out the back with Peter Rono. I see the real battle upfront being a match between Jakob, El G, and Morceli for the lead with El G taking it. I think those three would focus too much on each other and I actually think Noah Ngeny would end up winning, riding a hot pace but hanging tough while all the others fade away or waste their kick trying to hang.
1st Noah Ngeny 3:27.24
2nd Jakob Ingebrigsten 3:27.56
3rd Noureddine Morceli 3:28.45
I could definitely see Ngeny taking it with his lethal combination of 3:43 mile endurance and 2:11 1000m speed - hard to imagine anyone setting a pace that would burn him off. It's too hard to place bets on anyone here though because we have no idea how most of them would react to each other's tactics, it'd be uncharted territory. People may say Jakob is a fearless competitor who runs his own race, but he's never had to contend with this many men who are a fast or faster than him. The same goes for the others, of course.
Good point. Ngeny was only 0.27s back from El Guerrouj so he could definitely hang with him.
If the race is run like the 2016 Olympics, Jacob I gets last and dudes like Ngeny, Coe, Centro, and Kiprop and maybe** still El G duke it out for the win.
If the race is run like the 2020/21 Tokyo Olympics, El G wins easily.
Depends on the race wrote:
If the race is run like the 2016 Olympics, Jacob I gets last and dudes like Ngeny, Coe, Centro, and Kiprop and maybe** still El G duke it out for the win.
If the race is run like the 2020/21 Tokyo Olympics, El G wins easily.
I was thinking that with the guys in the field there wasn't much chance it would be tactical. I think Jakob and El G would do what they could to make sure that didn't happen but I don't see them burning off guys like Morceli or Ngeny as easily as they're used to.
If it did come down to 2016 style race I think you've got to throw Cacho in the mix instead of Kiprop. Prime Kiprop was literally in the 2016 final and didn't even medal, while Cacho closed out in 50.x in a faster race than Centro.