World 1500 Power Rankings Edition 3 (Mid-Outdoors) with Tiers

I think Hocker can make the championship final based off of his experience at Tokyo. I remember him executing the first round/semi to near perfection running on the inside and having a lot left at the end to easily qualify.

But are those just rigid calculus and some runners micro-manage their performances.
In my opinion any ranking should take in account the consistency of the runner

and the way his performance was made.

A runner that run 3:31 alone two times is better than a runner that made 3:29 a single time in a highly paced race.

So Girma for you is just a dark horse after 2 WR this year.
At least he won a 3:33 (first experience in years) alone not counting on the pace of another runner.

Let me know a 3:33 race won alone this year by Garcia, Habz and a lot of other runners better listed.

Who has run 3:31 alone twice?

Garcia Romo (the musketeer ranked 6 in this list)

3:34:88 European Championships 2022 Place 3

3:32:71 Lausanne DL 2022 Place 6

3:36:72 World Indoor Tour Madrid 2023 Place 5

3:34:69 Rabat DL 2023 Place 6

Won a 3:33 alone? Except for having a pacer to 800 and being behind 3 others with 100 to go…

Don’t get me wrong, Girma is obviously a fantastic 1500 talent. But I think he’s considered a “dark horse” because he’s not primarily a 1500 runner and probably won’t contest the event at Worlds or the DL final (and has only raced the distance twice in 3 years).

But go ahead, keep raging senselessly against everyone.

Criticizing you call this raging..? What a take.
You don't know people that have innate resistance to follow the move of the masses?

Thoughshoulder got his ranking completely wrong for Florence DL 5000m.

It’s a pattern of yours.

Who tf is Thoughshoulder?

Good to read entry #3, which is again more than sensible ;).

One could discuss some of these lower tier rankings - none of which would truly matter in determining the key positions we care for (1, 2 and 3) - with Cole Hocker most likely surprising us.

Yet as I am using the word "surprising", I am honestly not sure about the likely distribution of outcomes from him. He certainly has more upsides than some other higher ranked people, but his downsides due to a lack of training are huge. Let's wait and see I guess.

Here we came to personal attacks while I thought we were in a general discussion of ideas.

Very good list but I would split tier into two tiers with Katir, T. Cheruiyot and Nuguse as the medal favorites (whoever doesn’t medal is “going home devastated”) and the rest as contenders.

Point taken.

I think THOUGHTSLEADER’s ranking is really, really good. If I made any tweaks they would be minor swaps that I don’t feel that strongly about.

I think there’s a case to be made for Kipsang at #5 after running the #5 time on the season and given his consistently strong results over the last 3 seasons (sub-3:30 each year, 9 times under 3:32) but Garcia and Hoare both beat him in Oslo and ran nearly as fast, so I’m good with that order for now.

I think there’s possibly some perspective bias to include Teare and Waskom on a watch list over Mphahlele, Arese and others but I can’t fault him for that because things get murky that far down in the rankings.

I think his handling of Girma is fair for the reasons I mentioned above.

It seems unfair to criticize someone’s predictions (like THOUGHTSLEADER’s Florence 5k predictions) when you’re unwilling to submit any predictions yourself. And take a look at the Florence 5k results - if you tell me you knew Grijalva would beat Cheptegei, Fisher would be the 3rd American, and Aregawi would finish 14th you’re lying. That may have been the single most unpredictable result of the DL season so far.

Thanks JWH. Good points throughout the thread by you and others. The lower you go the more subjective it’ll get. I tend to think a runner like Waskom(trending upwards) and Hocker (high pedigree/talent) may surpass some of the early season 3:32-3 guys who’ve struggled since.

London should be a great test for many:

Tim, Nuguse, Hoare, Romo, Habz, Nordas, Coscoran, Gourley, McSweyn.

Wondering Tim’s tactics without Jakob. Would be great to see him control and try to fight off the OAC boys for the win.

Why are we watching Cooper Teare? He won’t be at worlds and can’t get into the best diamond league races with a 3:32 PR

He could do the thing called PRing and then get into those races. He just won his first race in Europe, and that also will boost his world rankings/chances of getting into bigger races.

Good ranking, but I think you're off on Hoare. He should be in the same tier 3 with Nordas and Habz. I personally would put Girma in Tier 2 instead.

Also, Robert Farken is a dark horse for me. He's got the best finishing speed at the moment and has ran only one paced race this year - 3:32.10 at the end of May.

He has potential to make it to the final.

Post-London Update:

Tier 1 -Massive Favorite:
1. Jakob (Last Ranked: 1)
Tier 2 -Medal Contenders:
2. Mohamed Katir (LR: 2) -
3. Yared Nuguse (LR: 4) - Welcome to third ranking, Yared. Despite having a little trouble slotting in, Yared got to where he needed to in London and went under 13 seconds to win vs. a qualify field.
4. Abel Kipsang (LR: 7) - Maybe benefiting too much from Hoare injury/bad runs by others in London, but one thing he can do in races is get out fast
5. Timothy Cheruiyot (LR: 3) - Seriously disappointing run in London, but hopefully goes back to the drawing board on tactics and is back to running more aggressively (especially at the start)
6. Mario Garcia Romo (LR: 6) - Bad run in London, but with Spanish Champs, I'll give him a pass in that he's training through possibly
7. Josh Kerr (LR: 9) -
8. Neil Gourley (LR: 11) - Displayed great fitness yesterday, if he waited a little too long/ran a bit extra to get to his spots
9. Oliver Hoare (LR: 5) - A groin injury is really concerning, but he does have time to get it right
10. Narve Nordas (LR: 8) - Showed he's the real deal yesterday, though couldn't finish it off despite getting the jump

Tier 3: Dark Horses
11. Lamecha Girma (LR: 11) -
12. Reynold Cheruiyot (LR: 12) -
13. Azzedine Habz (LR: 7) - Not a great result yesterday, though perhaps he's training through
14. Andrew Coscoran (LR: 14) - Came back to earth a bit, but it's one race
15. Elliot Giles (LR: 20)- Ran a near-perfect race yesterday and rewarded with a PB
16. Stewart McSweyn (LR: 15) - You saw the potential but also the deficiencies yesterday as his issues finishing showed up again

Tier 4: Really Good, But It's Crowded Here
17 . Sam Tanner - Performed his usual yesterday
18. Vincent Keter-
19. Adel Mechaal - Enters the convo with two strong 1500s, will he even make the Spanish team though?
20. George Mills- Not gonna ding him too much for the fall even if he put himself in a rough spot
21. Isaac Nader-
22. Matthew Stonier- Nice run from him, but won't be in Budapest

Watchlist: Niels Laros (Excellent 800 PB, should win easily at European U20s), Cole Hocker (Needs to run better tactically, regain his finishing pop), Joe Waskom (Strong win in Heusden), Adam Spencer (Huge PB!),