The 2023 USATF men's 1500 is gonna be awesome - Which of the Big 4 (or is it Big 5) will go home devastated?

It'll be

1st Hocker

2nd Nuguse

3rd Kessler

I’m sticking with my prediction from a few weeks ago of 1. Nuguse 2. Teare 3. Hocker, but I think anyone who feels super confident in their picks in this one is deluding themselves.

1st Yared

2nd Hocker

3rd A collegiate kid

Good article. I will go Nuguse, Teare, Hocker

There's always a casualty amongst the big guns it seems. HoltHYSTERIA will capitalize and slip in amongst the top three. YHIHF!

I wouldn't be shocked if one of the "big 5" fails to make the final.

If (when) it goes tactical Nathan Green will make the team.

1. Nuguse

2. Hocker

3. Green

I’m going Nuguse, Kessler, Hocker if it’s over 3:35 and Nuguse, Kessler, Teare if it’s under 3:35. Nuguse, Green, Hocker if it’s over 3:41, though I don’t think Nuguse would let that happen.

I’ve never seen a US race this loaded I don’t think. Nuguse is the only safe bet imo. I want him to win bc I wanna be able to dckride the Coffee Club Track Club for the next couple months.

Kessler has looked 2nd best this season, I want him to win because he’s my age and I broke up with my gf the night he ran 3:34, came home pretty sad, then I saw he ran 3:34 and was immediately over it :)

Teare is the reigning champ and with BTC he’s looked as good as ever. I want him to win bc his win last year felt a little hollow. He’s never beat Hocker in a 1500 that mattered, and a win this year would be sick.

Hocker ran 3:34 hoping for a 3:39 and looked awesome pacing like 1300 of a race. I’m hoping he doesn’t make the team this year so that next year he can have a redemption comeback for the Olympics. It’d be a sick storyline and everyone would be so hyped going into the trials. Still, he’s looked so good that he could win and I honestly wouldn’t be that surprised (I would lose my sht lmaooooo).

Any way it plays out, this is gonna be one of the best races of the year.

That's too bad. I can tell you had really strong feelings for her.

Great preview, Rojo. You don’t get enough credit for the excellent work you do on event previews and the Weeks That Were breakdowns.

The only runner I feel confident in selecting is Nuguse. I’ll pick Hocker and Green to join him, with respectful apologies to Teare and Kessler and a willingness to be delightfully wrong if Holt finds a way to make the team.

Here’s hoping Nuguse can pull off the upset at worlds in part so that we can send a four-man squad in 2025. We have too much talent to be limited to three entries!

I didn’t that’s why I broke up with her bruh

3:34 as a world class high school rock climber is just mind blowing. Plus he looked incredible in that speed workout from a few weeks ago, and he opened up 1s behind a very in from Cheriuyot. He’s just unreal.

Kessler did not run 3:57 with a 4:18 PR. He ran 3:57 with a 4:08 PR from a time trial that could have been a 4:04 (he paced teammates through 1200 at 3:01 and decided to run another lap)

Agreed on the confidence. I have a feeling one of those three will not make it, and we'll get one of the older guys -- Prakel, Gregorek, dare I even say Centro? -- for that third spot.

I think all 3 can run away from the field over the last 300m after cutting down from 60s, 59s -- feel best about Nuguse and Hocker doing so, but Teare has wheels too, we all know to ignore the 800 PB. It's avoidance of errors, not wasting energy with extra moves, though a margin of error exists for a guy like Nuguse (who could waste a turn on the outside of lane 2, not that he should or even would, but things happen), and just plain luck to avoid being spiked/tripped.

Predictions never go true to form and there always surprises. Basten for 3rd.

Robert, your analysis is spot on imo. Yared is on another level, way fitter and 2 seconds or more clear of the field. If he wants to be sure to make the team he should pull a Jakob and make sure it’s a very fast race gun to tape or at least super fast over the last 1000-1200m. I think he can front run it the whole way, and as you point out, he may not need to, because this sort of race will also be best for Teare. So the two of them should make sure this final is at the slowest sub 3:33, or more accurately, that the last 1200 is run in 2:50 even if the first 400 is a little bit slow. If so, that’s going to eliminate everybody except Kessler and maybe Hocker. Then it comes down to whether or not Hocker has really regained his fitness to hang with this pace. If yes, he’s on the team. I think he will be. So now it’s down to Teare and Kessler, with Teare having done work at the front of this race. I think he’ll fade just enough and Kessler, despite his inexperience is strong enough to overtake and makes the team.

The goose is gonna win.

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Hocker’s ready to throw hands.

I'd be shocked if all of the 'big 5' made the final. Not gonna happen, no way, no how.

Devastated? Can you just try to be positive? How about the Top 5 that will exceed expectations?