A California Runner has won that past 4 national cross country championships. How likely is there to be a 5th peat??

At NXN, this isn’t happening.

Daniel Simmons will win

they did say the same thing about leo/lex this year. If it turns to be a sit in kick I am pretty sure evan noonan can beat him. but if it isn't too windy and simmons takes it out from the gun than it is pretty unlikely

What about Jason Parra?
He has the best non-senior 3200 in CA. 8:46

0.00001 chance another California runner wins again but if you told me at the end of 2022 track that AARON SAHLMAN would win against one the most stacked NXN fields of all time that included 2 sub 4 milers and a 13:40 runner I would have reported you to the proper authorities in a prompt manner

I don't think it was the most absurd thing to think he could have done it if you had to predict right around June 2022.

He still had respectable 3200 time and a 4 or 4:01 mile. He definitely had the capability of a monster kick with his 800m time.

It only became more absurd to think he could win after seeing his 2022 XC form going into NXN. Like he seemed to have fallen behind the Youngs all throughout 2022 XC when it seemed like going into the year he'd be right there with them.

Actually. Let’s look at the numbers - per Wikipedia as of July 2022 - California accounts for roughly 39 million of 333 million US residents. Let’s say the proportion of high schoolers in the general population that puts California at roughly 11.8%, or a little over 1/9 US residents are Californians.

Then you account for the fact that California in general had a better high school development system than the rest of the country and the general better training conditions, facilities, and support. That 11.8% goes up to at least 12.5% (1/8) or even 14.3% (1/7).

If I were an oddsmaker I would set this somewhere between 4:1 (20% implied odds) or 5:1 (16.6666% implied odds)

If I were a betting man I would also heavily favor Simmons to win it, but lets remember that at NXN nothing is a given. As much of a beast as Danny is Lex and Leo were basically at the same level last year and neither made top 10 as seniors. Conner Burns ran 3:58 as a junior and 13:37 as a senior and couldn't even crack the top 30.

You guys are stupid, Danny Simmons has run 8:34, which is over 10 seconds faster than any California runner, plus he got second at NXN last year. Also the last 3 runners to win Nationals were all from Newbury Park, it's not California that's good, it's always just been Newbury Park!

Next November there will be strong candidates to beat Danny, we just don’t know who they are yet. There are probably a half dozen Californians in the top 25, but none of them are top 5 right now, IMO, so it’s unlikely we’ll be talking about a Californian.

That said, I do wonder if California’s late XC season actually helps them run better at nationals. Less of a gap from their state meet.

I see him having a huge jump. He's likely to be fully physically mature by his senior year. The young man is still 16!

I liked some of his gutsy moves trying to match the juggernaut 2021 XC Newbury Park in a few races when he was only a sophmore.

Burns was almost 18 as a junior so we cant just use him as to how others will improve.

Simmons didn't look too good at the NB mile so its really hard to say. There's just too many kids that are going to improve. I'll make my predictions once cross country starts.

Evan Noonan, watch out

That's definitely another one to watch.

out of the whole playing field in the us I feel like Evan noonan and Jason parra are the ones that have the best chance at beating Simmons. Jason Parra getting a growth spurt could be huge or it could be detrimental (if the growth spurt is too much). Evan Noonan if he improves. so it is definitely possible

parra isn't really a xc runner. he tends to blows up on courses that are not flat.

true but if he grows a little more he wont have issues as before.. might be more suitable for cross plus this kid rises high when stakes are high. He took first for Cali at Woodbridge and did the same at Arcadia this year.

What about Grant Morgenfeld, Carter Spralding, Anthony FAST HORSE 🐴, Emmanuel Perez, or Joshua Bell?

It’s also worth noting that 2015 was the last time that the NXN boys race was won by a non-senior

Evan Noonan also dropped 1.5 minute in the 5k from freshman to sophomore year. Another big jump and he could maybe have a shot?
In 2024 he will probably be in the discussion of people to win NXN