Sub 4 is now pretty common place for collegiates, what times does one need to run in order to think of running as a profession?

Sub 3:37, 13:20, 28:00 unless you are off being an influencer. And a lot of people with times like those bail after they don't develop. A 28:00 guy isn't going to a future on the track. He either turns into a 2:12 guy or gets a job...

Winning is more important than times in going from NCAA -> Pro

Name 3. Waiting.

So basically 10k is a game for the fast 5kers to try to make a national team at the pro level?

Would a guy a little slower than 1320 who turns a sub 212 marathon in the fall be able to continue on as a road racer?

Not earning $75K per year. Lucky to get a shoe deal.

But you need the times in the first place to get into the meets where winning actually matters. Do you think a 13:40 guy would be taken seriously at the elite level just because he has a good win / loss record? Don't be obtuse - times indicate fitness, which is necessary to win races.

To OP, the first answer is spot on.. though I would argue 28:00 is slightly weaker than the other times.

Still waiting

If you are not a top 5 guy in your event in D1 it is unlikely you will be making enough to support yourself when going “pro”. Baring some huge breakthrough post college.

The exception is influencers that have a large following. You can be exceptionally slow if people are willing to regularly consume your content.

3:50 mile for a male, 4:20 for a female.

28 is much weaker. The bet there is your ability to be a marathoner or maybe even HM road runner. The money is a lot wider on the roads where you have a dozen marathons paying out(they all want some dude to talk at the expo) where track is basically all about showing up at nationals and making teams.

Towards the bottom it is all about how little you can live on (being a pro living on Mom and Dad and 20k/year is a lot different than needing 60k and health care) and someone willing to gamble on you.

Clarifying points: while I'm listing PBs below, I think it's important to run this fast every contract period if you want to maintain the contract. More than that, these times would need to get faster if the field of runners gets faster or could be slower if things slow down, but that isn't likely.

Additional clarification: the way athletes make money is fundamentally changing. You can "not work in any other field than running" and still be a coach or still be getting paid to show up at camps or still be getting paid to do what Kyle Merber is doing with The Lap Count. Technology + Social Media are breaking down notions of traditional disciplines and this will continue. Making a living as a profession, in my mind and as I think the OP intended, means you can get by if you only earn money from race wins, sponsorship, or other compensation AND you are able to get by with only that money.

Observation: Then I also think as you go up, the times will need to be more competitive than you think bc of the saturation of people who do 10ks and marathons. I have a friend who is 2:17 marathon last year& OTQ before that, who has to have a full time job in the US. My guesses are 15/mile, 3k, 3kst, 5k, 10k, marathon:

~3:35/3:53
~7:43
~8:15
~13:15
~27:40
~2:14

People are being ridiculous with some of these times. Grant Fisher's 5k pb from college was 13:29.

When Fisher ran 13:29, he was 2nd in the NCAA. This year he would’ve been 10th. Last year he would’ve been 20th. Not to mention he was an NCAA champ and ran 7:42 for 3k (at the time one of the fastest times in collegiate history).

Run 3:54 in the mile (at venues other than BU) and finish top 5-6 multiple times at NCAAs and then you can think about turning pro.

Isn't that what one from Tinman elite does? The one with the trust fund?

I don't think anyone should expect a certain time would allow them to be a professionally sponsored runner with a single income stream. Maybe sub 3.55 would get you decent salary for a few years. Sub-4 would allow you to build a small influencer following and piece together a few revenue streams. Also possibly get your foot in the door at a running shoe company assuming you have a complimentary skill-set like product design or sales.

Getting a full or partial college scholarship is likely the biggest payday most sub-4 guys will get (which is nothing to sneeze at).

This makes me realize something else - age of the athlete and nationality/location are going to be pretty important. If you are really young and break 4, that's cooler than doing it at age 28. Same applies if you are like 65 and break 4. That would be super awesome and I imagine some people might want to lock you in for a contract.

Location is going to also be a contract. A Kenyan runner from Kenya training in Kenya who is able to break 4 will make less than someone from the US in the US who also breaks 4. Whether this is right or wrong is irrelevant in the OP's context. If I run sub4 in Antarctica that would also probably get me a more sizable contract. Same w/ being the first runner to break 4 in your country and based on how much your country's federation has to divert to track.

Sub 3:43

Disclaimer: I have no idea what I’m talking about.

To have running as a full time job in the U.S. (not working at a running store or as an assistant coach or anything), maybe top-100 in the world.

Last year that would have meant:

800 - 1:45.97

1500 - 3:36.98

5k - 13:20.02

10k - 27:49.88

-

800 - 2:01.38

1500 - 4:07.93

5k - 15:17.28

10k - 32:13.01

Actually, a couple of those marks (w1500/w5k) might be too stringent for someone finishing college, but certainly if you don’t hit those times in your first couple years after college you’ll need to start slinging lanyards in the ped-mall or something. Similarly, those times will serve you much, much better upon college graduation than in your mid twenties and on.