A closer look at Kenyan/GB performance in middle-distance between 90's and recent

segrunner wrote:

I decided to take a closer look at the shifting balance in performance standards between Kenya and GB, comparing the height of the EPO era 1996-1999 (up to 18th June) and the same length of period to now, so 2020-2023 (to today, 18th June).

The contrast is stark.

I looked at the numbers of Kenyans and Brits in the top 30 of each of the men's 800 and 1500, and combined them.

In the 90's Kenya had 25 of the top 60 middle-distance runners by performance, and Britain had only TWO.

In the last 3 1/2 years, Kenya's share had gone down to 11, and GB's rose to 10.

I then looked at the numbers from each country running under 1:44 or 3:33

In the 90's period of 3 and 1/2 years, 19 Kenyans did so, and only 2 Brits.

Mysteriously, a quarter of a century later, in the last 3 1/2 years only 11 Kenyans reached those standards, despite super shoes, mondo V.2 tracks, and wavelight pacing. Meanwhile, EIGHT British reached those standards.

Now this is all odd, because in 1996 the population of Kenya was just 27.6 million, and in 2021 it was 53.0 million, so almost double.

In 1996 the population of GB was 59.0 million, and in 2021 it was 67.3 million.

What do you think is behind these stats?

segrunner wrote:

I decided to take a closer look at the shifting balance in performance standards between Kenya and GB, comparing the height of the EPO era 1996-1999 (up to 18th June) and the same length of period to now, so 2020-2023 (to today, 18th June).

The contrast is stark.

I looked at the numbers of Kenyans and Brits in the top 30 of each of the men's 800 and 1500, and combined them.

In the 90's Kenya had 25 of the top 60 middle-distance runners by performance, and Britain had only TWO.

In the last 3 1/2 years, Kenya's share had gone down to 11, and GB's rose to 10.

I then looked at the numbers from each country running under 1:44 or 3:33

In the 90's period of 3 and 1/2 years, 19 Kenyans did so, and only 2 Brits.

Mysteriously, a quarter of a century later, in the last 3 1/2 years only 11 Kenyans reached those standards, despite super shoes, mondo V.2 tracks, and wavelight pacing. Meanwhile, EIGHT British reached those standards.

Now this is all odd, because in 1996 the population of Kenya was just 27.6 million, and in 2021 it was 53.0 million, so almost double.

In 1996 the population of GB was 59.0 million, and in 2021 it was 67.3 million.

What do you think is behind these stats?

rekrunner wrote:

segrunner wrote:

I decided to take a closer look at the shifting balance in performance standards between Kenya and GB, comparing the height of the EPO era 1996-1999 (up to 18th June) and the same length of period to now, so 2020-2023 (to today, 18th June).

The contrast is stark.

I looked at the numbers of Kenyans and Brits in the top 30 of each of the men's 800 and 1500, and combined them.

In the 90's Kenya had 25 of the top 60 middle-distance runners by performance, and Britain had only TWO.

In the last 3 1/2 years, Kenya's share had gone down to 11, and GB's rose to 10.

I then looked at the numbers from each country running under 1:44 or 3:33

In the 90's period of 3 and 1/2 years, 19 Kenyans did so, and only 2 Brits.

Mysteriously, a quarter of a century later, in the last 3 1/2 years only 11 Kenyans reached those standards, despite super shoes, mondo V.2 tracks, and wavelight pacing. Meanwhile, EIGHT British reached those standards.

Now this is all odd, because in 1996 the population of Kenya was just 27.6 million, and in 2021 it was 53.0 million, so almost double.

In 1996 the population of GB was 59.0 million, and in 2021 it was 67.3 million.

What do you think is behind these stats?

Hey "segrunner" -- Coevett copied your idea in a copycat thread.

rekrunner wrote:

segrunner wrote:

I decided to take a closer look at the shifting balance in performance standards between Kenya and GB, comparing the height of the EPO era 1996-1999 (up to 18th June) and the same length of period to now, so 2020-2023 (to today, 18th June).

The contrast is stark.

I looked at the numbers of Kenyans and Brits in the top 30 of each of the men's 800 and 1500, and combined them.

In the 90's Kenya had 25 of the top 60 middle-distance runners by performance, and Britain had only TWO.

In the last 3 1/2 years, Kenya's share had gone down to 11, and GB's rose to 10.

I then looked at the numbers from each country running under 1:44 or 3:33

In the 90's period of 3 and 1/2 years, 19 Kenyans did so, and only 2 Brits.

Mysteriously, a quarter of a century later, in the last 3 1/2 years only 11 Kenyans reached those standards, despite super shoes, mondo V.2 tracks, and wavelight pacing. Meanwhile, EIGHT British reached those standards.

Now this is all odd, because in 1996 the population of Kenya was just 27.6 million, and in 2021 it was 53.0 million, so almost double.

In 1996 the population of GB was 59.0 million, and in 2021 it was 67.3 million.

What do you think is behind these stats?

Hey "segrunner" -- Coevett copied your idea in a copycat thread.

Here are some possible reasons:

Money dried up on the track; talented East Africans focusing on roads.

Kenyan margins over non-Africans for 800/1500 have always been smaller. The East African advantage gets progressively bigger from 3000m up to the marathon.

Covid years not representative or comparable.

National population not relevant, when Kenyan success is largely regional.