Who is more likely to be an Olympic champion, Parker Valby, Addy Wiley or Katelyn Tuhoy?

Tuohy - No kick, no chance

Valby - Can’t train, talent can only take you so far.

Wiley by default

I think Tuohy will end up having the best career, but Wiley has the highest potential ceiling of the three. Don't see Valby ever staying healthy enough to be consistent at the next level. Any of them ever winning Olympic gold is extremely unlikely.

VALBYMANIA BABY!!!

Can Wiley successfully operate in the wild and against stronger competition? Take away her creepy little support bubble and make her race week in, week out against East Africans and Europeans instead of JV talent from other Bible colleges, can she adapt? She is very talented but once she turns pro, her agent's first task will be to jettison the Johnsons as they compromise her marketability.

Only chance any of them have is in a sit and kick 1500m final that finishes in like ~4:05-4:10. But to get there they may have to drop sub 4 1500m in the prelims as well.

I'd give Wiley the best chance at doing both of those things but its still a low chance with the competition.

5, and 10 they all have 0% chance at all of being champ ever.

Maybe if one of them goes steeplechase they could sneak a medal?

Tuohy could end up with the most US titles, but the 5k is a cursed event for US women. Id be hard pressed to pick her for this one. We've seen US women medal in the 1500 and the 10k *(where i think Valby eventually ends up).

Likely Wiley, but 1500m-10000m are very tough for US women to win

Wiley is running regularly against pro competition after competing with the best U20 talent in the world including East Africans and Europeans. She is getting more of that level of competition than she would have at a D1 school. Her training program is focused on pro races and USATF championships instead of NCAA championships.

Wiley is talented, no doubt, but I would like to see her being coached by someone other than the Johnsons.

Tuohy is a long shot, her best chance is to turn pro now. if an olympic medal is her goal another year at NC State will not help. in fact, it may even set her back.

Valby has already had 2 major injuries which worries me for someone her age.

Wiley, at least amongst this group, is probably the one I'd pick. but it's a big maybe. she has a long ways to go.

I think it won’t be Wiley, despite talent, because I can’t see her continuing long term without some sort of mental health/personal life crisis that details her career given everything. I’d love to be wrong. She just needs to leave/move form her current setup and get a good counselor.

Tuohy is my favorite of the three but I see her ceiling as being lower than necessary to win.

Valby has a higher ceiling but also the highest training-related risk obviously. But we are already talking about super low odds for an American woman winning the Olympics. If she can stay injury free (maybe low odds but already dealing with low odds here) she has the best chance of the three.

I pick Valby for combination of high ceiling and low risk of non-running issues derailing her.

I don't think any of them will ever medal, but Wiley has the best chance of the three. Valby's best event is the 5k. The 5k is loaded with East African talent, so it's not going to happen. Tuohy's best event appears to be the 5k, but she's so strong aerobically her best event may be 10k or marathon long term. Again, she runs into the same problem with those being loaded with talent and difficult to medal in.

Wiley's best event is the 1500, which can be totally unpredictable because Championships often end up being tactical. If she gets down to sub 4 1500m shape she has a chance if the race goes tactical and something crazy happens. It's a long shot, but she at least has a chance. Touhy and Valby don't. That's just my 2 cents.

Give Tuohy EPO and steroids and then lets see. That seems to be what people accept here. OK. When in Rome.