MIAC XC 2023

Rumor has it Power found the internet and now has the Oles on double threshold training. This is a big departure from his speed, speed, speed training that he called “training the 400 hurdles, just longer.” Time will tell if the Oles can mimic NAU and flourish.

St Olaf has a shot to win.

Way too early team predictions assuming lars and llyod are coming back..

1. Carelton ( They are back, their rising sophomore class will be the Bain of miac's existence for the next 3 years. Studs both on the track and in cross. I don't think anyone comes close however they will look weak in September but come October they will be back,, just watch. I also like the speed gears that these top athletes have, they truly can win any style of race. that will suit them well. gosh darn it another Northfield dynasty continues...)

2. St. Olaf ( everyone will want the to be lower but until they lose Curtis and kelly, they wont fall... however I expect 2-4 to be within 10-15 points of each other)

3. St. Johns ( With Lloyd coming back they have just enough top talent to outweigh macs superior depth)

4. Macalester ( I think and hope they Suprise me, with no Lloyd or any injury to a johnnie top5 runner or if mckee and olson have big prs on the same day, and they are a top 3 team immediately. The only other factor is speed. They don't typically have their mid-d athletes run cross and may lack that last 400m gear when it matters.. the johnnie's will win at the line if mac pack cant pull away)

5. St. Scholastica ( With lars back and a healthy Boone, they should be the favorite of the chase pack of schools, however their 4 and 5 are still very big question marks, Nathan Nea at least has emerged as a strong 3 for this top heavy team, he will have to beat out the younger teams top packs though for the saints to hold onto 5th place. not much young talent and depth truly limits them to 5th place celling)

6. Gustavus ( Like Macalester one thing goes wrong for Scholastica and they could take 5th. they have gone through the rough transition year, they lost Wallin but he was more track guy. Now their top pack should mature and healthy to put them here. A super tight pack and time spread or a sophomore form of Hinchcliffe and they could put 5 significantly before Scholastica's number 4 )

7. Augsburg ( Mo Bati... and some other guys with great potential. Again they will need to get a 5th runner, and they could be attacking 5th place but a key injury to a top 4 and they are back in 9th. I liked the hype last year but now we have seen a whole yyear and while bati is bati and they have a decent 2 runner the lack of depth just cant win without a higher up pack or another true top runner.)

8. Concordia ( Hell of a performance last year at conf. I don't think anyone saw them taking 5th. However the have lost some people and Scholastica and Gac will likely not be so injured)

9. Bethel ( I believe St. George has graduated.. they will not have a top runner and their pack is still behind that of Concordia, Augsburg or Gustavus. This team is younger and will get better but right now i think the conference is too strong. )

10. St. Mary's (Will they have 5... if they do they have one decent runner and a couple fringe pieces at least to make the not the worst)

11. Hamline (will they have a team.. likely but losing aric makes them fall to the bottom)

bati with the 1:04:22 half at grandmas.

a couple quick psas, elijah jones isn't taking a 5th year and ian curtis can't really run anymore.

also, this thread has turned into a miasma of johnny propaganda. how would they contend at the national level. I'm so skeptical.

what happened to him?

That 1:04 is absurd. Did he just not try in Track?

He did win the indoor conference 5k. Started outdoor solid before tailing off.

Assuming he’s Muslim because #mohammed, maybe the not eating/drinking all day during Ramadan affected his training? Possibly injured or sick at some point? Over/under trained? Poor sleep/fueling habits? School stress?…

There are a lot of things that can mess with a guy’s training during a pretty short outdoor season but I’d hesitate to say a 1:04 guy just didn’t try.

Makes sense for Bati. My coach has said several times that he has a much different life than the rest of us and we should give him some grace. He seems like a nice guy too.

As for your predictions, using a word like miasma lost the Johnnies. None of them know what that means.

Any news on recruits?

Macalester is getting a 1:59/4:20 guy and 1:54/4:25 guy. They do seem more mid-d focused but strong recruits nonetheless.

We all know the team races will Come down to 3 teams, (sue me Mac). Let's project top 5's

St. Olaf

Kelly (SR): All-American last year, 2nd behind Bati in conference, ran 8:53/14:15 on the track. He'll most likely win the meet or finish second to Bati which shouldn't affect team standings very much

Skemp (JR): Ran as their #3 last season, finished top 20 finish at North regionals last year, and ran 30:45 in the 10k. Also holds a 24:59 8k best. Beat Bowman in MIAC 10k. Has been slightly inconsistent at points in his career, but holds a high top end.

Lynn (SR): 8th in conference XC last year, 110th in the national meet. Seemingly injured much of track season, but still came back and ran under 15.

Cote (SR): 15th in XC, but has really developed in track. Ran 9:07/14:54, and rarely raced poorly. If his development translates to XC, he'll do quite well.

Turlington (SO): With all the hype garnered by the MIAC freshman class of last year, he got overlooked a little bit. Scored in both the 1500 and 5k at MIACs, and holds marks of 3:57/14:53.

Other Potential Scorers: Coffey (3:59/15:09) Hartney (3:57) Curtis (3:53/8:23/24:30, but injured all last year)

Carleton:
Bowman (5th yr): The MIAC's resident old man is back for a 5th year. Was 5th at MIAC XC last year, and clocked a 24:58 PR. Ran 14:49/30:40 Should contend near the front of the race.

Nichols (SO): Dominant during indoor, but tailed off a bit in outdoor, getting out kicked for the 1500 title. Bounced back the next day in the 5k with a 3rd place finish and still ran 3:50 at last chance. We still haven't seen him run the 8k, but he has a very high ceiling.

Llewellyn (SO): 9th in XC last year. Ran 3:56 and 14:52 in track, scored in both 1500/5k at MIAC's, should be a very solid 3 for the Carls

Melville (SR): Might be the biggest wild card in the team competition. If he's healthy could be very dangerous. Ran 4:20/8:33 indoors. Was coming off injury last XC season so that doesn't gauge what he can do. For them to have a chance, he needs to be healthy;

Meier (JR): 1:54 in the 800, but can he translate that speed to success on the course? Was 34th last year, so he's got potential to make an impact

Other possible scorers: Lyness (4:20 indoor)

St. Johns
Young (SR): All-American in XC. Solid track season as well grabbing 2nd in the MIAC 5k and running 14:38. Unlikely he catches Kelly or Bati, but he's probably the favorite to finish 3rd.

Grove (JR): Only 13th in XC last year, but had a big breakout track season, running 8:59 and qualifying for nationals in steeple. If he keeps developing, he'll be right with Lloyd

Allen (SR): 14th in XC last year, and was injured much of track, but holds an impressive 3:52 PR in the 1500. If healthy, should provide the johnnies a solid 3 man.

Grand (SR): Very much a miler by trade (3:54/4:14), was 19th in XC last year. If he gets a better aerobic base he could be dangerous.

Cavanaugh (JR): Has run 15:11 and sub 26 in XC. They need him to be consistent to have a chance to knock off Northfield.
Other Potential scorers: St. Peter (3:57), Hensel (26:09, 17th last year)

I think the Oles depth and experience will allow them to narrowly defend their title over Johns and Carleton but all three of these teams could end up at nationals. Discuss

I think the 5th to 9th place race will be more interesting. Olaf probably wins, Carleton and Johns fight for second Mac a comfortable 4th... but...

Last year, 42 seconds separated the 5 teams from 5th to 9th. 25 Points. 12 points between 5th and 8th. A couple runners go 20 seconds faster and the whole thing changes. One good prospect or graduation can make or break a team...

St Mary's and Hamline probably will still suck, but as long as St. Mary's fields a team and has one fast guy there's not much Hamline can do to close the gap when their first finisher is in the 28's

Grand was not 19th last year in XC, that was two years ago. He was 74th last year. I also question how many of these "seniors" were seniors last year and have graduated.

Given how bad Aric Brodie ran at conference XC last year, his loss won't be missed in their team score. Looks like Lucas LiaBraaten is ready to carry on Brodie's torch of being the best runner on a bad team. Hamline looks poised to make a run at St. Mary's 10th place

Isn't Kelly coming back as well?

Important to mention that Arne Ellefson-Carnes will be taking a fifth year, and Jonah Herzog got a medical redshirt retroactively approved, so he'll be back for one cross season as well.

Massanari, Montresor and Estrada also...

If St Mary’s has a top 20 runner, Hamline is going to need someone to step up. If their top guy is high 50’s it would be a nearly insurmountable lead. St Mary could have a guy jog a 60 min 8k and still max out at 75 points. Max 2-5 is 284 so ~304 with one top 20. Hamline would need to average 61 or better w/at least 1 - 58th place or higher.

I agree, curious what teams in the 5-9 range were unhealthy or healthy last year. Just 1 or 2 guys in a teams top 5 coming back healthy could have tremendous impact on those teams and standings.

A different topic - which current MIAC coach or assistant could finish top 20 in a MIAC championship at this point in time? Could a team of coaches finish top 5 in team score?Several don't appear they can run to the fridge, but I'm interested in your rankings.