If I were Tuohy, or anyone who wants to beat Howell or O'Sullivan, I would go straight to the lead and make the field hurt. Howell accelerates quickly and will try to control the pace from the front. She is very talented. She will likely get a little help Jepkirui with that if given the opportunity. ITB & O'Sullivan will be near the front but will likely not try to dictate things. Someone who I thought looked really good advancing but is under the radar so to speak is Ramsden. They are all really solid though.
Like I said, this will be fun to watch... if Tuohy (or someone) makes it fast early this could go sub 4:05.
Would be interesting to see what happens if they get strung out rather than bunched. But in that scenario, can the pace-setter go the full distance without tying up? If it’s Tuohy, will she wait a bit before taking off?
Would be interesting to see what happens if they get strung out rather than bunched. But in that scenario, can the pace-setter go the full distance without tying up? If it’s Tuohy, will she wait a bit before taking off?
Well, yes, that's the gamble. It's very tough to go wire to wire but, as I said, Howell is really good at getting out... slowing things and then moving with anyone who tries to take the lead.. this makes the athlete who is trying to take the pace race wider on the turns and expend even more energy. Howell knows how to use her strengths. Will be a great race!
It’s hard to pick against O’Sullivan. It’s like Makhloufi in the 2012 Olympic finals when Silas Kiplagat etc were just helpless against him. The physicality advantage is immense. If she’s gonna barge through and disrupt others’ races, they have to be that much better to withstand the wasted energy. I’m not even saying it’s illegal/wrong or whatever, but she is hard to ward off and will run the shortest line. It will be on Tuohy or Howell to run away from her because I think if it’s a packed-up race she’s getting to the front with the most in reserve.
This post was edited 40 seconds after it was posted.
If I were Tuohy, or anyone who wants to beat Howell or O'Sullivan, I would go straight to the lead and make the field hurt. Howell accelerates quickly and will try to control the pace from the front. She is very talented. She will likely get a little help Jepkirui with that if given the opportunity. ITB & O'Sullivan will be near the front but will likely not try to dictate things. Someone who I thought looked really good advancing but is under the radar so to speak is Ramsden. They are all really solid though.
Like I said, this will be fun to watch... if Tuohy (or someone) makes it fast early this could go sub 4:05.
I just don’t see a sub 4:05. It’s going to be around 100° at race time. I expect a slow and tactical race. If it is sub 4:05 I won’t be surprised if Tuohy scratches the 5.
If I were Tuohy, or anyone who wants to beat Howell or O'Sullivan, I would go straight to the lead and make the field hurt. Howell accelerates quickly and will try to control the pace from the front. She is very talented. She will likely get a little help Jepkirui with that if given the opportunity. ITB & O'Sullivan will be near the front but will likely not try to dictate things. Someone who I thought looked really good advancing but is under the radar so to speak is Ramsden. They are all really solid though.
Like I said, this will be fun to watch... if Tuohy (or someone) makes it fast early this could go sub 4:05.
“Somebody may beat me but they are going to have to bleed to do it”
If I were Tuohy, or anyone who wants to beat Howell or O'Sullivan, I would go straight to the lead and make the field hurt. Howell accelerates quickly and will try to control the pace from the front. She is very talented. She will likely get a little help Jepkirui with that if given the opportunity. ITB & O'Sullivan will be near the front but will likely not try to dictate things. Someone who I thought looked really good advancing but is under the radar so to speak is Ramsden. They are all really solid though.
Like I said, this will be fun to watch... if Tuohy (or someone) makes it fast early this could go sub 4:05.
I just don’t see a sub 4:05. It’s going to be around 100° at race time. I expect a slow and tactical race. If it is sub 4:05 I won’t be surprised if Tuohy scratches the 5.
4:05 is pretty fast. But Tuohy's best chance is to make it fast.
It’s hard to pick against O’Sullivan. It’s like Makhloufi in the 2012 Olympic finals when Silas Kiplagat etc were just helpless against him. The physicality advantage is immense. If she’s gonna barge through and disrupt others’ races, they have to be that much better to withstand the wasted energy. I’m not even saying it’s illegal/wrong or whatever, but she is hard to ward off and will run the shortest line. It will be on Tuohy or Howell to run away from her because I think if it’s a packed-up race she’s getting to the front with the most in reserve.
Interesting point. The Stride Report thinks that Plourde didn't make the final because when O'Sullivan went in front of her it broke her stride. So, there is some truth to what you are saying. O'Sullivan basically overcame 3 top runners (Plourde, Barnett, Tuohy) with physicality tactics. The supose other runners will have to adjust I guess.
From TSR
However, with roughly 250 meters to go, Plourde just couldn't navigate around the taller O'Sullivan who was already making a move of her own. Tuohy was opening up her stride while in the lead, allowing O'Sullivan (who had the inside rail) to navigate more easily in front of Ploude who was already trying to get around her PAC-12 rival on her outside shoulder. As a result, O'Sullivan got in front, Plourde's stride was interrupted and the chase pack behind her took advantage of her faltering momentum.
If I were Tuohy, or anyone who wants to beat Howell or O'Sullivan, I would go straight to the lead
i'm not sure at all that she has the speed to get to the front off the line. imo, tuohy has one speed, which she can sustain remarkably well.....and mostly that has been more than good enough. not so much anymore.
If I were Tuohy, or anyone who wants to beat Howell or O'Sullivan, I would go straight to the lead
i'm not sure at all that she has the speed to get to the front off the line. imo, tuohy has one speed, which she can sustain remarkably well.....and mostly that has been more than good enough. not so much anymore.
I think whoever is leading at 100 m (which I doubt will be Tuohy) will slow it down and thus Tuohy can get to lead by 300 if she desires.
It’s hard to pick against O’Sullivan. It’s like Makhloufi in the 2012 Olympic finals when Silas Kiplagat etc were just helpless against him. The physicality advantage is immense. If she’s gonna barge through and disrupt others’ races, they have to be that much better to withstand the wasted energy. I’m not even saying it’s illegal/wrong or whatever, but she is hard to ward off and will run the shortest line. It will be on Tuohy or Howell to run away from her because I think if it’s a packed-up race she’s getting to the front with the most in reserve.
Interesting point. The Stride Report thinks that Plourde didn't make the final because when O'Sullivan went in front of her it broke her stride. So, there is some truth to what you are saying. O'Sullivan basically overcame 3 top runners (Plourde, Barnett, Tuohy) with physicality tactics. The supose other runners will have to adjust I guess.
From TSR
However, with roughly 250 meters to go, Plourde just couldn't navigate around the taller O'Sullivan who was already making a move of her own. Tuohy was opening up her stride while in the lead, allowing O'Sullivan (who had the inside rail) to navigate more easily in front of Ploude who was already trying to get around her PAC-12 rival on her outside shoulder. As a result, O'Sullivan got in front, Plourde's stride was interrupted and the chase pack behind her took advantage of her faltering momentum.
you can see at 3:27 Plourde suddenly puts her left arm out, loses momemtum, O'Sullivan gaps her and those behind her start gaining on her.
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