Moraa is thus far inconsistent. Massive talent for sure, and I think she *could* win gold but not *should* win and definitely not with a large margin. She was good enough to perhaps win last year but she raced a brutal race tactically in Eugene and that wasn't the only time her race execution was a mess last year.
I wish Mu raced more, but fact is she is still unbeaten in the 800 since 2020. Even not at her best she still beat Moraa easily from the front in Eugene. Until we see new evidence to the contrary you'd be silly to think she isn't still the top dog.
With Hodgkinson, two years in a row now her best race of the season was the most important race of the season (Tokyo and Eugene). Her coach definitely seems to know how to peak her well. Her weakness is her tactics, often being reliant on simply being fitter, but this fails when she isn't super sharp and there are other strong women in the race. Again, she is seems to be sharpest for the world/Olympic final and in those races she just has to tuck in behind Athing as those races turn into pure time trials.
If Athing and Keely stay stagnant, Moraa finds 1% improvement and executes a good race she'll be there neck and neck down the home straight like the other two were in Eugene, but those are two very big if questions.
She was good enough to perhaps win last year but she raced a brutal race tactically in Eugene.
With Hodgkinson, two years in a row now her best race of the season was the most important race of the season (Tokyo and Eugene). Her coach definitely seems to know how to peak her well. Her weakness is her tactics, often being reliant on simply being fitter, but this fails when she isn't super sharp and there are other strong women in the race. Again, she is seems to be sharpest for the world/Olympic final and in those races she just has to tuck in behind Athing as those races turn into pure time trials.
Moraa ran completely normal race in Eugene, watch again and again if you have too. She finished 3rd and that's the end of story.
Hodgkinson was 18/19 in 2021, a teenager. She set WU20R in January and then kept setting PBs nearly all the time until Tokyo. Ran a winning race at the DL final.
In 2022, she was still very young, Moraa is 2 years older and achieved nothing in 2021 (Tokyo 800 sf with 2:00.47). Hodgkinson set the 6th fastest indoor mark all time and the fastest in 20 years in February. She would have demolished the field and Ajeé Wilson at World Indoors in Belgrade in March but withdrew with a quad injury after warm-up in Belgrade. Outdoors, she won 3 DL races and came second in 4th. Yes, she peaked again at Worlds. Then CG lost to Moraa who had really fast finish, European title won and struggled with form at the DL final to finish fifth - for me that season was very long for the 20-year-old.
Because the same time Mu raced just a few times and for her World Indoors is nothing.
Hodgkinson improved her indoor NR this year though just by 0.02 with 1:57.18, while I did hope for 1:56.
Moraa so far hasn't proven she will go out with Mu and stay on her heels. That's all that matters.
Somehow this forum delights in doubting prodigy frontrunners like Jakob and Mu. Meanwhile they're well clear and unconcerned.
But have fun looking at times
Moraa right now is much more of a Keely Hodgkinson kryptonite than anything related to Athing Mu. Hodgkinson in a day to day race isn't committed to the front like Mu. Therefore she has to deal with Moraa's erratic behavior and also the fact that when Moraa is leaning back and looks labored late in a race she actually has plenty left.
She'll out finish Hodgkinson almost every time in that scenario.
Last year in the Eugene final there were two distinct tiers...Mu and Hodgkinson like Affirmed and Alydar in the Belmont, and Moraa battling with Welteji for bronze many meters back. Now that Welteji has apparently abandoned the 800 for the 1500, Moraa has to decide if she's going to be content 5 meters back down the backstretch or if she's going to evaluate properly like Keely from Tokyo and recognize that her only chance against Mu is to be capable of 1:56 territory and draw even entering the stretch.
Mu's long strides, talent level and tenacity aren't going to allow a late desperate pass from several meters back.
The W800m is way too fluid to rely on this kind of analysis. No-one predicted Moraa bursting onto the scene and no-one predicted BOTH Keely and Mu slowing down last year (for whatever/separate reasons). I certainly didn't expect Mary to beat Keely in the CG. As pointed out, on form so far Keely is no faster this year than last and Mu is a complete unknown fitness wise. So basically anything could happen. LR had us believe they could map out an entire DECADE of future W8 running and Moraa is proof that they couldn't.
As pointed out, on form so far Keely is no faster this year than last
How did she set a new national record then?
She was clearly in better indoor shape this season than last - and appears not to have gotten injured this time around. How and if that translates to the outdoors is yet to be seen.
She'll out finish Hodgkinson almost every time in that scenario.
As for now Moraa's PB is 1:56.71 and she won CG with relatively slow 1:57.07. The race was simply too slow to eliminate her, that's a lesson learned for Keely. This is like with Laura Muir on the European scene. If the pace is slow she will demolish the field with her kick.
As pointed out, on form so far Keely is no faster this year than last
How did she set a new national record then?
She was clearly in better indoor shape this season than last - and appears not to have gotten injured this time around. How and if that translates to the outdoors is yet to be seen.
Moraa ran completely normal race in Eugene, watch again and again if you have too. She finished 3rd and that's the end of story.
Hodgkinson was 18/19 in 2021, a teenager. She set WU20R in January and then kept setting PBs nearly all the time until Tokyo. Ran a winning race at the DL final.
In 2022, she was still very young, Moraa is 2 years older and achieved nothing in 2021 (Tokyo 800 sf with 2:00.47). Hodgkinson set the 6th fastest indoor mark all time and the fastest in 20 years in February. She would have demolished the field and Ajeé Wilson at World Indoors in Belgrade in March but withdrew with a quad injury after warm-up in Belgrade. Outdoors, she won 3 DL races and came second in 4th. Yes, she peaked again at Worlds. Then CG lost to Moraa who had really fast finish, European title won and struggled with form at the DL final to finish fifth - for me that season was very long for the 20-year-old.
Because the same time Mu raced just a few times and for her World Indoors is nothing.
Hodgkinson improved her indoor NR this year though just by 0.02 with 1:57.18, while I did hope for 1:56.
Yeah I agree with everything you said (especially Moraa being a Hodgkinson kryptonite) except Moraa in Eugene. She ran the whole damn race edge of Lane 1/Lane 2. She ran the whole first 500m outside of Hodgkinson and still let Hodgkinson out of the box behind Welteji. She probably ran about 815m in that race. You cannot do that against athletes as closely matched in fitness as Keely + Moraa.
Yes. For the 2022 record she had a clean run with only the pacer in front of her.
This year Yarigo hadn't read the script and got in the way so Keely had to spend the first lap and a half running wide to get past her. And she still ended up with a faster time.
She ran under 1.58 three times this indoor season. So far no-one has done so outdoors.
Mu will run them to the wall from the front to keep away from traffic. Hodjkinson and Moraa wil hang on with Moraa finding a gear while Keely fades for Bronze. Mu wins in 1:54 and comes back with a 48 relay split.
Mu is La Gazelle and 🐐
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Very talented and a potential world champion but whoever wrote this post clearly has no understanding that goat = greatest of all time not someone having a small period of excellence.