Nuguse and Hocker are who I feel best about at this point. Hobbs has always been a bit inconsistent. Will Centro or Engels round into shape in time? Teare just lost to Kessler, so by default I don't feel best about him.
The most interesting thing to me is that in prior years, I might have an easy 1-2 favorites in a fast race and a different 1-2 favorites in a slow race, but all the contenders this year (minus Hobbs) I feel fairly equal about in any paced race.
Could someone we aren't listing here slip into one of the 3 spots? (hunter, prakel, wynne, gregorek) I am cheering for Hunter.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Hobbs on any style race. We know in a fast race, he’s currently top on the list.
In a slow race, I think he’s got the best 400/800 speed out of the favorites.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Hobbs on any style race. We know in a fast race, he’s currently top on the list.
In a slow race, I think he’s got the best 400/800 speed out of the favorites.
Crazy not to think that Nuguse would currently beat Kessler in a fast race. Sure, Kessler’s run 3:32.61 to Nuguse’s 3:33.02, but those were differently paced races and Nuguse ran his last 800 faster than Ingebrigtsen, and beat multiple 3:29/3:30 guys. Plus his 3:47.38i converts to 3:30-mid, and he hasn’t lost to anyone except Jakob at 1500/mile since June of last year.
As for 400/800 speed, it’s definitely not clear that Kessler’s faster than Nuguse or Hocker. 800 PRs of the 4 primary contenders:
Nuguse 1:46.30
Hocker 1:46.39
Kessler 1:46.87
Teare 1:47.48i
And Teare won USAs last year with a 51.90 last 400, 37.98 last 300 and 12.41 final 100, which is really legit. People forget he hadn’t run for 3 weeks before the WC heats due to injury, or he would have likely made the final IMO.
No disrespect to Kessler who has a bright future, but if I had to bet I’d pick:
1. Nuguse
2. Teare
3. Hocker
I can actually imagine Teare leading with 100 to go and just getting outkicked by Nuguse with a bit of separation between those two and third. I consider Teare more likely to bring his A-game and run a tactically savvy race than Hocker or Kessler. I can see either Hocker or Kessler hanging back in 10th at the bell for no good reason, but if Hocker’s fully healthy we know his kick is proven and reliable; Kessler is just too young and inexperienced for me to put money on him, though it won’t surprise me if he does make the team.
Don’t be so quick to rule out Hobbs on any style race. We know in a fast race, he’s currently top on the list.
In a slow race, I think he’s got the best 400/800 speed out of the favorites.
Crazy not to think that Nuguse would currently beat Kessler in a fast race. Sure, Kessler’s run 3:32.61 to Nuguse’s 3:33.02, but those were differently paced races and Nuguse ran his last 800 faster than Ingebrigtsen, and beat multiple 3:29/3:30 guys. Plus his 3:47.38i converts to 3:30-mid, and he hasn’t lost to anyone except Jakob at 1500/mile since June of last year.
As for 400/800 speed, it’s definitely not clear that Kessler’s faster than Nuguse or Hocker. 800 PRs of the 4 primary contenders:
Nuguse 1:46.30
Hocker 1:46.39
Kessler 1:46.87
Teare 1:47.48i
And Teare won USAs last year with a 51.90 last 400, 37.98 last 300 and 12.41 final 100, which is really legit. People forget he hadn’t run for 3 weeks before the WC heats due to injury, or he would have likely made the final IMO.
No disrespect to Kessler who has a bright future, but if I had to bet I’d pick:
1. Nuguse
2. Teare
3. Hocker
I can actually imagine Teare leading with 100 to go and just getting outkicked by Nuguse with a bit of separation between those two and third. I consider Teare more likely to bring his A-game and run a tactically savvy race than Hocker or Kessler. I can see either Hocker or Kessler hanging back in 10th at the bell for no good reason, but if Hocker’s fully healthy we know his kick is proven and reliable; Kessler is just too young and inexperienced for me to put money on him, though it won’t surprise me if he does make the team.
Idk. If I'm Nuguse. And I have Teare, Hobbs, and maybe even Centro that can close in Centro. I'm not letting it come down to the last 100m.
IMO, I haven't seen Nuguse have that last 100m gear shift like I've seen from Hobbs, Teare, Nuguse, and Centro. I certain don't think he's passing Teare off of a slow pace.
Idk. If I'm Nuguse. And I have Teare, Hobbs, and maybe even Centro that can close in Centro. I'm not letting it come down to the last 100m.
IMO, I haven't seen Nuguse have that last 100m gear shift like I've seen from Hobbs, Teare, Nuguse, and Centro. I certain don't think he's passing Teare off of a slow pace.
The hardest thing to predict is how the pacing of the race will play out, but regardless, 25.94 final 200 in a 3:47.38 mile doesn’t do anything for you?
There are a million ways the race could unfold, and unless everyone jogs until the last 100 (very unlikely) I like Nuguse’s finish. One very conceivable scenario is that the race goes 1:58-1:59 through 800, with 450 to go someone like Prakel or Gregorek makes their bid and it comes down to who can run 52-54 in a 3:34-3:36 race. I like Nuguse as the one to run 3:34.xx with a sub-53 last lap.
Edit: Re-reading your post, I sort of sidestepped your comment. Nuguse won’t let it dawdle until the last 100 but if the pace heats up before then and Nuguse is in qualifying position, I don’t think he’ll be desperate to get to the lead but rather trust that he’ll have that final gear in the last 100. You know, 13.5 - 13.5 - 13.2 - 12.8 kind of thing.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
1. hocker - he's only going to get better from now til worlds i suspect
2. hobbs - I can't just ignore a 3:32 however i think he could easily not make the team; he's been a bit inconsistent before and is fairly new to the scene. but I guess so is Cole to some extent.
3. centro - I grew up with him, and a 3:36 is good enough to give me hope that he can piece something together for worlds. do I genuinely believe he's making the team? no. will it be my guess? yes.
1. hocker - he's only going to get better from now til worlds i suspect
2. hobbs - I can't just ignore a 3:32 however i think he could easily not make the team; he's been a bit inconsistent before and is fairly new to the scene. but I guess so is Cole to some extent.
3. centro - I grew up with him, and a 3:36 is good enough to give me hope that he can piece something together for worlds. do I genuinely believe he's making the team? no. will it be my guess? yes.
Anyone not picking Nuguse is either betting he’ll be injured or they’re being a fool.
I grew up with Centro too - not only are we within 3 years in age but we went to the same daycare, kindergarten, and used to race each other on the black top in elementary school (one time he bit me at recess and was suspended for 3 days). But going from 6th to 13th (DFL) on the last lap last night to finish 4+ seconds behind Hocker doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
I’ve got no real logical argument for Basten over Kessler, Prakel, Teare etc., except that there’s often a collegian in the mix and he can close like a freight train.
1. hocker - he's only going to get better from now til worlds i suspect
2. hobbs - I can't just ignore a 3:32 however i think he could easily not make the team; he's been a bit inconsistent before and is fairly new to the scene. but I guess so is Cole to some extent.
3. centro - I grew up with him, and a 3:36 is good enough to give me hope that he can piece something together for worlds. do I genuinely believe he's making the team? no. will it be my guess? yes.
Anyone not picking Nuguse is either betting he’ll be injured or they’re being a fool.
I grew up with Centro too - not only are we within 3 years in age but we went to the same daycare, kindergarten, and used to race each other on the black top in elementary school (one time he bit me at recess and was suspended for 3 days). But going from 6th to 13th (DFL) on the last lap last night to finish 4+ seconds behind Hocker doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Well, the DFL does not inspire confidence. But, in 2021 he ran 3:35 40 days before the first round of the 1500m at the USATF meet. In 2021, he almost won over a peak Hocker.
In 2023, he ran 3:36 40 days before the first round of the 1500m.
Contenders? Seriously, have you never watched the 1500? Jakob lost the last WC 1500m. Tim Cheruiyot didn't win a single race in 2022 after dominating for years. Centro won a OG Gold in 3:50. The 1500m is chaos wrapped in mayhem!
So you really can't be serious if you say 3:32 guys aren't contenders. Plus Nuguse's mile converts to a 3:30 or so... how is that not a contender?
Plus, last time I checked, we are talking about making the US team and since most of us are Americans, we care who will represent our country in Budapest. Being a fan of sport means caring about your team even if they don't win a title or medals.
Yes, 2021 & 2022 USA's were thrilling to watch. Then Tokyo & Eugene happened and they were even more thrilling, but the national championships/ team selection that occurred prior to the international events started only made me even more excited to watch the international competitions regardless of America's medal aspirations (though the will they/ won't they dynamic added to the fun). Besides, some of my favorite athletes are not American at all.
Could see someone experienced like Johnny G, Centro, Hunter, or Wynne making the team. Time trialing & running rounds are slightly different. Hard to argue against the top-3 though.