Insane to think that this is possible, but consider the tracks on which those records were set--hardly ideal for 400m, and especially 800m.
These new tracks are super nice. Yeah I know they were doped out of their minds, but when I watch especially Kratochvilova, I can't help but think that s/he would have gone much faster on a bouncy new track.
You'll see. The 800 might be farther off, but the 400 is ready to be challenged, maybe by someone like Naser, or one of the fast crop of current American women.
We have already seen the 100 and 200 records under threat, the 400 and 800 are now ripe.
Nasar ran fast low 48 but she then tested positive and suspended, so she is coming off a long layoff and any great performance will come with PED Accusations, How will she do without PED's?
Kratochvilova may not have been on PED's She may have been DSD like Semenya, Niyonsaba and others, So it could have been natural, Of course she could of been DSD And also on Ped's
Mclaughlin has the best chance at the 400 WR, Ithough iy will be interesting to see how far under 49 Britton Wilson will go either this Week or at NCAA's I will be surprised if she does not break 49 this year, My guess is 48.2 at best to 48.7 and Wilson is Young a Sophomore in College so maybe when she is PRO she could get it.
So I agree with your point on Kratochvilova and what she would have run, for example, on a track like Tokyo - but that's still accounting for the fact that she was maxed out on whatever it was she was taking. Does a clean Jarmila/Marita with todays track technology and footwear (not really as much of a benefit in the sprints vs distance but let's give it something), beat steroid powered Jarmila/Marita on old tracks with more classic footwear? I hate to say this and it's just my opinion, but absolutely no chance.
Moving on to todays crop - well someone quite simply is going to have to cheat and get away with it. Nasser did it - but was still a half second away from the record and well, didn't get away with it. Miller-Uibo would have to rewind time back to 2019/20 and get on a program in order to find 7 tenths of a second to do it.
As for the 800 - I mean where do you start? DSD athletes or cheats dominated this one event for decades starting with Mutola (DSD), the Eastern Europeans (like Savinova, Ceplak, Graf, Formanova) who were all cheating and the two closest athletes of the last 30 years Jelimo and Semenya who were intersex athletes and possibly cheating as well (in the case of Jelimo almost certainly). Again - can tracks and shoes really overcome chemistry and biology? Mu has run 1.55.04 and has 48 second 400m wheels, but 1.53.2 looks light years away.
I really do believe, with all due respect, that these records are just ones where doping has potentially put them beyond the limit of plausibility for women as we know them. There is really no evidence to suggest we are even getting close to seeing them be broken unfortunately.
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She wasn't banned for doping, she was banned for whereabouts failures. I don't know whether she was doping or not but I will say that it is a nightmare to fill in that form if you are not comfortable with the language.
As far as I remember one of the failures was due to a flight being rescheduled and she texted her agent to update ADAMS and he did not update ADAMS. The other involved the testers repeatedly knocking on the wrong door at her apartment complex. The arbitration process is on the World Athletics site or somewhere similar. I don't know if she is doping or not. She may well use PEDs .
oh theyll get broken,by very juiced up women.Same with the short sprint records.I think the bouncy track and shoe thing is a bit of a myth,unless you really believe koch would have run 46.6 on todays new tracks.unlikely.
The selective ban is awful and political. C S, not banned for taking p.e.d.s. Ban is basically because natural T level is too high. If C S' T-level was too high, why only ban C S in C S' three best events: 400/800/1500? C S had a natural T level too high but C S was allowed by Coe to compete in javelin, shotput and hammer throw if C S wished. That's ridiculous.
I think if you teleported super-juiced Koch to Tokyo 2020 and had her run on that surface and allowed her to train in cushioned sprint spikes (not race because that makes no sense in sprinting) I think we could reasonably expect her to run in the low 47's. I think she could have run somewhere in the 47.1X-47.2X range, but I agree that the 46's just seem very unlikely no matter what.