Sub 3 - Should I give up before starting?

Don't give up. You need to run more mileage. Consider getting a coach.

Appreciate the reply and the sentiment....but that article seems pretty black and white to me and my threshold is so far from what they say I need. I just don't know what the difference I can make would be? More speed work? I'm out of my depth here.

(speaking as someone who is injured and hasn't run in a long time), sub 3 is an arbitrary time like any other and the most important things are always 1) don't get injured, 2) don't overtrain and 3) enjoy running and don't take it too seriously - its a HOBBY.

Ok with all that said I recommend forgetting about sub 3 for the time being and instead focus on being able to run an 18 minute 5k and 38 minute 10k at will. Then build up.

You can do it for sure! I was at the finish line for a marathon a few weeks ago and I was inspired by the people coming in around the 3 hour mark. Normal people! Men and women. Some of them didn’t even have super shoes or a GPS/ Heart rate etc.

I agree run more miles but have fun with this, pick a fall thin now, pay the money now as motivation and get the heck out on the road, trails, bike, pool

Okay, I'll give it to you straight.

In your late 40s, your window to run a sub-3 marathon is closing. You may have time, but time is not on your side.

You should turn off your heart rate monitor and leave your chest strap at home. That data isn't helping you right now, only holding you back. Staying in Zone 2 or whatever does not help and may hurt your progress.

This next part sounds like bad news, but it's really good news: You've never actually trained for a marathon before. 50-60 km/week isn't marathon training. It's just getting into the realm of serious 5K training.

More good news: The guideline about minimal 10K times needed for a sub-3 marathon is only a generality, and it only applies to people at the peak of their training - which you've never reached before.

I don't know if October is a realistic timeline for you. Probably not.

What I do know is that if you want to run close to your best marathon, you don't need a 14-week plan, or even a base phase plus a plan. What you need is to start running, consistently, ~6 days per week, for a couple years. And gradually increasing mileage to whatever you can sustain, ideally 70-80 km/week. You would do a couple of training blocks along the way to train for 5K-HM races, and race multiple times. That would give you a much better understanding of your fitness and its potential limits.

And then you'd start a marathon training block.

I second what the previous poster said. In addition, if it is really true that you have split a 39 10K during a marathon, then I think you may have a decent chance to eventually break 3.

I think you're missing a very important point. It seems you believe that your threshold pace is constant and cannot be changed. 100% false. It will improve as fitness improves. It's a target that indicates sub-3 potential.

You're looking for an easy solution, and there isn't one - other than more/better training. If you are only running 3 run/week and maxing out at <40 mpw, you are kidding yourself if you think that's good enough to reach your maximum potential, especially for a marathon.

The article has what appears to be an almost throw-away line that is easy to overlook, "Outside of these two workouts, all a runner needs to do is easy-aerobic running. How much? As much as you can handle ...."

On the flip side, running 3:28 on such a minimal schedule means you have a decent starting point with lots of room to grow and improve.

If you are an ambitious, competitive runner, you need to be running six days a week. There is a significant difference in building, improving and maintaining fitness that comes from running more frequently. With that, you are better able to handle an increase in weekly mileage, length of long runs, and intensity of workouts.

Get over the "woe is me" attitude and start training like someone who really wants it.

The new LRC standard of time acceptance is a sub one hundred eighty seven minute ‘Thon.

Run more - spend the late spring/summer base-building as close to a 50 mile per week average as you can get, with 1 day of speed-work, and an occasional back-off week. You can do this on 5 days a week of running, not 6, if you want. Summer is a good time to run a number of 5 and 10ks to help get you faster and accustomed to racing.

Follow a plan when you get close to the marathon. I have never done a plan longer than 12 weeks. I finally broke 3 off of jumping into the Pfitz 12-week/70 plan at week 8, skipping the 1st 4 weeks as I had been doing all of the above things already. Whether you do the full plan or not, it's easier to jump into any advanced plan if you're already in good shape. Finally, I'd find a Half Marathon to *race* 4 weeks out. It's a good test (and a good opportunity to PR). My 5k and 10ks were low 18 and mid 37 before I broke 3. My Half was 1:23. My peak mileage week was 65 miles. I think the required 5k/10k/Half PRs required to break 3 really depend on the individual. I'd say a 1:24 Half would be a good indicator.

Finally, being in shape is the 1st part of it. Good weather and race strategy are the other pieces to achieving your goal. You can't control the 1st one very much, but go in with a good (conservative start) strategy. The number of failed sub 3 attempts due to poor race strategy vs. inadequate training is incredibly high.

These are the things that worked for me in breaking 3, and I was older than you. I think you still have time to have a shot at it in October, but not a lot so get out there running!

Fu<k that article and (at least for now) your watch. I would recommend for the next few weeks running loops that you know are about the distance you want to go for the day, leaving the watch at home. Once it feels routine to run consistently (and that doesn't mean it has to be 6 days a week), you can worry about workouts. Or maybe by then you'll just enjoy the running and f the workouts too until September.

Thanks for all the replies. Until doing that test yesterday I would have been quietly confident of breaking 3, I have never bothered with base building and thought it would be the thing to, literally, get me over the line. The results totally threw me.

I hope I didn't come across as too self pitying, I was feeling a little deflated but the weird thing was that if I'd come away from the test fully convinced I couldn't achieve sub 3 I wouldn't have been down for too long. The main reason for this is that in my attempts at upping my weekly mileage I've been struggling to find time to fit in the runs (usual story, kids, job, family etc) and so have been getting up early to go for an hour run each morning before work. If, as a result of the test telling me I was wasting my time, and I had to stop this early rising It would have been a kind of silver lining (I do like my sleep).

On the plus side I've taken heart from the replies, I've booked in the marathon place so I'm doing it (injuries avoided of course). Interestingly, yesterday constituted the first bit of 'speed' work, if you could call it that, I've done in many months of base training. Today, I ran my best low heart rate pace I ever have, after a few weeks of stagnation. So maybe some speed work each week before starting the plan properly in a month or so will help me along the way.

Edit: Just want to say this is a great forum, very supportive compared to some of the others I've read. Thanks again.

You can't be able to run 39 min 10k (especially so during the marathon) and have 4:49/km LT at the same time.
LT is the pace you can hold for 40-60 minutes. So in your case it was maybe 3:55 to 4:05/km.

Assume your watch is off by a lot. If it's not, then you detrained a lot, which means you'll get back there in no time.

Right now you don't need any written plan. What you need, in order of most important to least important:

- increase your mileage. don't have a set goal, just increase it every week a little bit. if you feel tired or sore - run slower, if you feel good - run faster, but be consistent. do doubles whenever you can afford it. you can switch to longer singles closer to your marathon

- do at least one tempo run a week. tempo meaning the range from your CURRENT marathon to half marathon pace. can be broken in big chunks. try to progress in those (either faster pace or longer time)

- race some 10ks and half marathons. it will give you all the information about your fitness (including LT) that you will ever need. ignore the watch's opinion on this

- build up your long run. first build up to 2 hours, then 2:30, then 3 hours of easy running. every other week is fine. once there, start incorporating faster running into your long runs. run some GOAL MP at the end of it in about every other run. progress to 8-10 miles at the end of the long run as a final one just before your taper

What's your half marathon OP? Your threshold pace is going to be a touch faster than that. You're at a spot where more miles can improve your threshold during a structured marathon build. Aim for a half 8-12 weeks out to see if you're on track. Go for it but be smart about your training and set you goal as you get closer to the race even if it's a slightly slower goal.

I found using the "Stryd" Power Meter device (& built-in training plan) was really useful for a marathon build up. Once you've fed the required data in, it's exceptional for race pacing/strategy too. Personally I think it's a great way of maximising potential, especially over the longer distance.

Apologies I can't help my glowing reference sounding like an editorial, but it really did/does help me (as an older runner). It's not cheap, but at 43 I've done nothing but improve (and got my sub-3) in the 3 years since I bought/subscribed.

Run slow and run often. run minimum of 40 miles per week--work up to 55-60 for a few months. Start running with your heart rate at 140s and no higher for every run. At least 2-3 months. Each week your pace will get faster I guarantee it. If you do this every week with long runs once a week youll run sub 3 hours in 5-6 months.

I recently ran sub-3 at 48yo. If you really want it, you'll need to be doing seven days a week and around 70mpw with workouts mixed in. Pick a favorable course and with solid race-day execution this should be very doable.

You only give up when you use carbon spring shoes and/or choose a downhill course

I'm not all that fast but...I did work hard. But here are my times based on mileage I was running. I would typically do a 12-15 week build up and this is my AVERAGE mileage over that 12-15 week span. Keep in mind that I was following the either a Daniel's Plan or the Pfitzinger Plan.

50 mpw - 1:35 Half Marathon / 3:20 Full Marathon / 19:05 5K
60 mpw - 1:25 Half Marathon / 3:01 Full Marathon / 18:07 5K
70 mpw - 1:20 Half Marathon / 2:52 Full Marathon / 17:00 5K

Also to note, I wasn't doing 5K specific training at this time, and I think my 5K times would have been better if that was my focus.

The key here was that I was running a lot of my easy mileage at 8:30 to 8:45 pace. Check your ego. Shalane Flanagan runs 8:20 mile easy pace and she is faster than me by a lot.

TL:DR: Run 65 mpw a week to break sub-3.

Agree with most of this, but I would add if the poster is in his late 40s, his build-up to 70-80 kms/week needs to be slow and cautious or he will just end up injured. Ask me how I know.