Will an American woman run 48.XX in the next 5 years?

There have been about 85 f.a.t. sub-22.50 U.S. 200m dash women. F.A.T. sub-49 400m by a U.S. woman seems reasonable.

I believe it will happen. Between Britton Wilson, SML, Abby Steiner, Talitha Diggs, Athing Mu, and any 17 year old future superstars I’m not aware of yet I like the odds.

Wilson split 48.6 last year and this year has already run 49.48i (#2 all time) and 49.51 outdoors, and she’s still 22. She’s getting to be my single best bet to run sub-49.

Gabby Thomas ran a huge 49.68 PR this April. That’s still a long way from sub-49, but perhaps with 11.00/21.61 PRs it’s just a matter of dedicated 400 training.

No, but a "chick" with dick might.

Perhaps Sydney in less than a month. I haven't been overboard on her 400 flat prospects but realistically with these 49.2, 49.4 and 49.6 efforts recently from Bol, Wilson and Thomas you can't dismiss Sydney's chance to clip below that, especially the way she opened the season last year in Atlanta.

If it's not sub-49 it should be nearby.

Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone is about to do it on May 27th. I got her at 48.92.

Next 5 years? Oh, 100%. It will happen this year for sure. I'm calling it now - Britton Wilson sub 49 at NCAAs, SML American record in the 400 this year too.

Mu will run sub 49 sometime in the next 2 years. I don't think it will be this year but definitely next year.

I kind of agree, but I'm not as optimistic as you as far as when it will happen. I'll say that Sydney will definitely run sub 49 by 2024 at the latest. Britton Wilson has a 50% shot at going sub 49 by next year.

Athing Mu will only go sub 49 if she regains her motivation. Right now she is more interested in modelling than training.

I think on May 27 Sydney will run 49 low.

I'll think she'll run the 400 flat at USA's and break 49 for the first time there.