Have I Done Enough Long Runs for Sub 3hr Marathon

If it's in a couple of weeks, any long run you do now will harm rather than hurt you. This is the answer whether you're in sub 3 shape or not.

What are you waiting for? Taper and go get it!

It doesn't matter as much as you think it does. I mean, it's essential to get some very long runs in to get used to racing for 3 hours, but only 3 or 4 over a 10 week period. It's only one aspect of fitness.

Btw when I did sub 3 my long runs were 22 miles at 8:15 pace! Much slower than yours.

That was my thought as well. The mileage seems fine, but the paces for the long runs are much faster than my training plans called for. I’m not sure if the lower time on the feet because you went fast matters.

Yes. Unless it's Boston. Then, yes as long as your long runs were on hills.

I ran 2:54 with a 20 miler @ 6:50 being my only run longer than 15.

So yes.

I think your training runs show that you can run a sub-3hr pace for 20+ miles. For me, pacing is the single most important aspect of running a successful marathon. Absolutely don't go out faster than 1:30 for the first half, no matter how good you feel. Save it for the second half, especially miles 20-26. Good luck!

Thanks for the replies guys. I think I am just inside my own head and overthinking it. Its stressing me out haha.

Yes. You're in shape to do it.

I ran sub3 w/ a similar training, but with fewer long runs, probably lower mileage (i was only a 4-5 times a week, with only two runs longer than 5 mi. - a workout and a long run)

Yeah, as long as you weren't racing the workout for that 22, you should cruise to sub-3.

From the info you have given, you are ready to roll sub-3. Good luck.

This is great advice. I was running 3:03-3:05 until Katherine Switzer told me at a book signing to go out no faster than 1:30-31. I didn't manage to hold back quite that much, but did run the first half in 1:29:45, and that was good for a 2:57 finish. Didn't see the other side of 3 hours for four years. . . . BTW your short races are faster than mine were (18:35/1:23). Go get it!

What was your half marathon tune up result? That's a far bigger predictor of your marathon than any amount of long runs.

OP already noted: 1:22:24. Slower than when he didn’t go sub-3 in Berlin. But that Berlin result was probably partially due to illness, and a 25% mileage increase will put OP over the top this time. And for OP, if you weren’t tapered for this 5k and half (and I’d expect not), you may just see slower times because you need more recovery from this new mileage. You’ll have that from the taper for your “A” race. Should be good to go.

He posted above that he ran 1:22 during this training block. That's definitely predictive of a sub 3:00, especially since you've also gotten in sufficient long runs and should have good general endurance.

Also, your 5K and Half times may be a little slower this time around because you were training more/harder than pre-Berlin, and therefore were more fatigued.

Get in a nice taper now and you're good to go!

NEVER TAPER.....only peak!

I believe the term is "Maranoid".

Whether you will or won't, it doesn't matter now.

Give yourself the best chance of achieving it by tapering properly e.g. do not try to "prove" your fitness in any remaining workouts, just tick boxes until race day.

P.S. If you've done 3 long runs of 21 miles or more (at a solid clip), then you've done enough.

When I ran my PR 2:57 over 30

years ago I was in great shape. I ran 53:55 for 10 miles 7 weeks before the marathon but I was past my peak and over trained. my goal was sub 2:45 but I was stupid and split 1:18 at the half. so many factors contribute to a successful marathon. my suggestion try to run even or slight negative splits depending on the course and weather conditions. good luck

You know better than we do how your current fitness and preparation compare to when you ran 3:02. There are probably people who can run anywhere between 2:30 and 3:30 whose long runs are more or less like yours.