Most likely WR to go down in Lievin on Wednesday

No men’s records are going down

W 400

Mondo may have something to say about that. His first two WRs came inthe month of February (2020). He took attempts at 6.22 at each of his first two competitions this year. Oh, and he opened his season by clearing 6.10 (20 feet!).

would be cool to see Ingebrigtsen respond to Nuguse’s warning shot by setting another iWR.

Is the meet streamed?

Interestingly the 1500 is the race apparently set for WR pacing through 2/3rds, not the 3k. Start lists have pacers going 2:20.0 through 1k and 4:58.0 through 2k, respectively. I doubt either WR will fall but I expect fast times in both races—maybe 3:31.high and 7:26, are my guesses.

None, but the 3K will be within 1-2 seconds.

Agree on most points, but I'm not sure Krop will be as sharp at this juncture as Mo Katir, Fisher or Girma. Just judging from last year, he wasn't fully firing in indoors and that was even with a World Indoors. I know Fisher and Girma open up ready to go, and that Katir ran his 3:35 without competition. I think they will be the top 3 and all run under 7:30, but I'll say they fall short and run 7:26pt.

It's hard to judge with Krop as he's 21 and only has a couple of years as a senior pro to compare with. Was last year typical for him or will it look like an outliers in future? He's already opened with 27:04 which is decent for a January 10k. I think he's the most likely in that field to push the pace.

I'm not convinced Katir has sub-7:30 in him. He didn't get close last year. Fisher: I just can't see it. He won't lead if the pace drops and I don't think he can out-kick Krop and Girma, or Katir if he's close. Regardless, I don't think the WR is going down, 7:24 is incredibly fast. I think we're looking at a 7:28-29 race.

Unlikely any of them, but the men's 1,500m is the softest - relatively speaking.

It's indoor bro

Also need to mention the 60m hurdles. Grant Holloway gets up to 2 shots because there’s a Q round.

record for most substances detected in a single drug test will be broken.

In general, I guess when was the last Kenyan who really thrived indoors? It doesn't seem to be a large priority for most of the non US-based Kenyans.

As for Katir, it's apples and oranges for me because Katir had a series of health issues last year with COVID and other things in his winter training. For the 7:26-7 I could see you are correct someone would have to push. There're a few candidates, and it is less daunting indoors with no wind of course.

I’m with High hopes in regards to Katir: I’m not that impressed by his recent 3:35.48. Admittedly I’m judging based largely on the unreliable “eye test,” but he didn’t look that great to me as he struggled through the last lap after hitting the bell on 3:33-high pace. He looked more like the guy who was 7th in Lievin last year in 7:36.6i and only ran 3:34.95 before Eugene than the WC bronze medalist or Katir v.2021.

I’m going out on a bit of a limb (for someone wary of looking like a homer) and say Fisher gets the W in a new AR. Predictions:

1. Fisher 7:26.99

2. Girma 7:28.7

3. Krop 7:30.9

4. Balew 7:34.9

5. Katir 7:35.0

Well, Krop beat Katir in this race last year and ran a 7:31.9i PR on 2/22/22, which is 3.39” faster than Katir’s indoor best.

Before that, Bethwell Birgen ran 7:34.12i in 2021 which is quite strong for him, but you have to go back 11-12 years to find Choge, Kipchoge and Soi running sub-7:30.

The start lists also have the times the pacer have been asked to do. I assume these must have been requested by the athletes, so it might give an indication of what they'll be trying for tomorrow:

W1500:
PACE 600m - 1:33.00
PACE 800m - 2:04.00

W800:
PACE 400m - 56.50

M3000:
PACE 1000m - 2:29.00
PACE 1500m - 3:44.00
PACE 2000m - 4:58.00

M1500:
PACE 1000m - 2:20.00

That's exactly why I like Krop for the win. Kenyans don't run indoors so if a top class Kenyan is turning up, it's because he thinks he can do some damage