For the wavelight pacing, the Paris Olympic standards are 27:00/30:40 so we know they’ll be targeting those at a minimum. The big question for me is whether Cranny or Monson will want to go for the AR (30:13). For the men, it’s not a stretch to think Kincaid and/or Klecker could run 26:4x in a time trial, but the AR seems fairly unlikely, and it might be wisest to set the lights to 27:00 and try to run away from them in the second half if they’re feeling up for it.
For the wavelight pacing, the Paris Olympic standards are 27:00/30:40 so we know they’ll be targeting those at a minimum. The big question for me is whether Cranny or Monson will want to go for the AR (30:13). For the men, it’s not a stretch to think Kincaid and/or Klecker could run 26:4x in a time trial, but the AR seems fairly unlikely, and it might be wisest to set the lights to 27:00 and try to run away from them in the second half if they’re feeling up for it.
Budapest World Champs standards are 27:10/30:40 . . . didn't realize the men now have to run 10 secs faster for Paris next year . . .
Presume that Jerry will have Elise chasing sub-30 with her own rabbit(s) while Karissa will likely be in the main pack chasing 30:40. If she's fit enough following her December ankle surgery, Courtney will be a rabbit along with Christina.
For the BTC men, would think that Grant & Mo will be chasing sub-26:30 with their own rabbits while Sean and Kieran will be in the main pack chasing 27-flat. Would expect Cooper, Evan, TR, and Josh to be the rabbits. Don't know about Lopez . . . has he retired?
Note: schedule calls for men/women US 10ks followed by men/women World 10ks. Also, a couple of high school two-mile races have been added to the schedule which could attract some national attention.
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A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad act the good
The women's AR looks poised to fall if Monson and Cranny are both running. I'd give that a higher chance of falling over the men's AR since that 26:33 was run so perfectly. I could see Monson/Cranny going sub-30 since they'll probably be racing to the line.
For the guys, I really wonder what the race is gonna look like. Are Grant and Mo gonna be trying to go sub 26:30 on their own, while half a dozen guys chase 26:59 behind them? Grijalva placed higher in the 5k than Grant or Mo, is he gonna be in shape to run with them for 10k? Kincaid is in sub 12:50 shape now, is he gonna try to run with them too? Klecker and Mantz probably aren't ready for 26:3x, but if that group is bigger than the 26:59 group, would they just go with them and try to hang on? Seems like the kind of thing they'd do tbh. Grant and Mo aren't even announced yet, so if they don't end up running, there's probably 4-5 people who could break 27, which would be sick.
I wish some NAU/Stanford guys could run it, but that's probably a 1 way ticket to missing out on an NCAA title. Given the 3k/5k times we've been seeing, I think someone in the NCAA could run at least 27:05. Still though, this has become one of my favorite meets of the year, so I'm excited now :)
. . . I wish some NAU/Stanford guys could run it, but that's probably a 1 way ticket to missing out on an NCAA title . . .
Yeah, probably, especially if JJ thinks the guys have a chance for the title, especially now that Udo, their once-in-a-lifetime-for-Stanford sprinter, has put down a couple of fast 60 & 200 marks.
More probable is the likelihood of top European, African or Japanese runners making their way over to San Juan Capistrano to get their Q. Really, what other meet anywhere in the world other than Hengelo offers a 10k of this quality? Payton Jordon used to . . . but The TEN has usurped the PJ. Maybe their sponsors can convince some of these road racers to trade in their Vaporflys for Dragonflys.
Yeah, these next five weeks thru NCAAs will be spectacular.
The women's AR looks poised to fall if Monson and Cranny are both running. I'd give that a higher chance of falling over the men's AR since that 26:33 was run so perfectly. I could see Monson/Cranny going sub-30 since they'll probably be racing to the line.
For the guys, I really wonder what the race is gonna look like. Are Grant and Mo gonna be trying to go sub 26:30 on their own, while half a dozen guys chase 26:59 behind them? Grijalva placed higher in the 5k than Grant or Mo, is he gonna be in shape to run with them for 10k? Kincaid is in sub 12:50 shape now, is he gonna try to run with them too? Klecker and Mantz probably aren't ready for 26:3x, but if that group is bigger than the 26:59 group, would they just go with them and try to hang on? Seems like the kind of thing they'd do tbh. Grant and Mo aren't even announced yet, so if they don't end up running, there's probably 4-5 people who could break 27, which would be sick.
I wish some NAU/Stanford guys could run it, but that's probably a 1 way ticket to missing out on an NCAA title. Given the 3k/5k times we've been seeing, I think someone in the NCAA could run at least 27:05. Still though, this has become one of my favorite meets of the year, so I'm excited now :)
Incredible that multiple American men running under 27:00 is now something we can discuss. How far we have come.
Unfortunate Bosley or Young couldn't be here, would have loved to see them run something fast.
Great to see that Connor Mantz is still interested in the track.
Somewhat of a surprise: Luis Grijalva in his 10k debut.
Will any college guys run this meet? The NAU/BYU/OK State/Stanford boys?
March 4th is the off weekend before NCAAs so its possible . . . but unlikely.
Can you OP's stop posting instagram links without copying the main description? Like the entries? Or at least show which account posted it so we can check later, I still don't know what the full fields are. Some instagram post won't load or require login for certain browsers.
- Marakwet Express has to be the best instagram handle out there. I've been saving all my money, just to take you there ... RIP Croz
- would not be smart for NCAA guys to run here. No current NCAA athlete is going to run under 27:10, not that any of them could make the top three at USAs anyway. Better to run well at NCAAs and wait for their time to come. Doing an unnecessary 10k on the track just to "run something fast" is not a good strategic decision.
- I assume some of Bideau's Australian women will end up on these start lists, if not too destroyed from World XC, or even if destroyed ... it is Bideau after all. I don't see McSweyn in the 10k in Budapest or Paris, but would be interesting to see what he could do. Ran 27:23 three years ago and shouldn't be wiped out after the relay at Worlds. It would be aggressive, but not necessarily a surprise.
For the wavelight pacing, the Paris Olympic standards are 27:00/30:40 so we know they’ll be targeting those at a minimum. The big question for me is whether Cranny or Monson will want to go for the AR (30:13). For the men, it’s not a stretch to think Kincaid and/or Klecker could run 26:4x in a time trial, but the AR seems fairly unlikely, and it might be wisest to set the lights to 27:00 and try to run away from them in the second half if they’re feeling up for it.
Budapest World Champs standards are 27:10/30:40 . . . didn't realize the men now have to run 10 secs faster for Paris next year . . .
Presume that Jerry will have Elise chasing sub-30 with her own rabbit(s) while Karissa will likely be in the main pack chasing 30:40. If she's fit enough following her December ankle surgery, Courtney will be a rabbit along with Christina.
For the BTC men, would think that Grant & Mo will be chasing sub-26:30 with their own rabbits while Sean and Kieran will be in the main pack chasing 27-flat. Would expect Cooper, Evan, TR, and Josh to be the rabbits. Don't know about Lopez . . . has he retired?
Note: schedule calls for men/women US 10ks followed by men/women World 10ks. Also, a couple of high school two-mile races have been added to the schedule which could attract some national attention.
This would make sense but I don't see Grant or Mo listed in the early entries. I doubt they'll be doing this one again, but I could be wrong.
That’d leave the field to 3 people. Elise Karissa and Alicia. Emily Infeld can hang but now you’re only at 4.
Obviously Alicia is in fantastic shape, but given what Elise did on her own last year at this and how Karissa held on and ran 30:18 at worlds, if she’s going under 30, don’t you think those two would sit on her and kick. They currently have the better prs.
The women's AR looks poised to fall if Monson and Cranny are both running. I'd give that a higher chance of falling over the men's AR since that 26:33 was run so perfectly. I could see Monson/Cranny going sub-30 since they'll probably be racing to the line.
For the guys, I really wonder what the race is gonna look like. Are Grant and Mo gonna be trying to go sub 26:30 on their own, while half a dozen guys chase 26:59 behind them? Grijalva placed higher in the 5k than Grant or Mo, is he gonna be in shape to run with them for 10k? Kincaid is in sub 12:50 shape now, is he gonna try to run with them too? Klecker and Mantz probably aren't ready for 26:3x, but if that group is bigger than the 26:59 group, would they just go with them and try to hang on? Seems like the kind of thing they'd do tbh. Grant and Mo aren't even announced yet, so if they don't end up running, there's probably 4-5 people who could break 27, which would be sick.
I wish some NAU/Stanford guys could run it, but that's probably a 1 way ticket to missing out on an NCAA title. Given the 3k/5k times we've been seeing, I think someone in the NCAA could run at least 27:05. Still though, this has become one of my favorite meets of the year, so I'm excited now :)
I don’t see any of the BTC men on the start lists. Doubt they’ll be there if not already listed, and the women are. Would be great to have mcgorty, fisher, Ahmed, etc in there.