I say that at least 10 guys have a chance to better the current record, which is insane. 2023 may be even stronger than 2022.
The record is 7:56.9 by Nico. Here is my list:
1-Lex ran 7:57.0 last year so this is obvious
2-Leo is equal to or better than Lex, so he could do it
3-Aaron ran 8:01 last winter and has now won NXN. He may be the fastest of them all
The sub 4 milers:
4-Birnbaum has run 3:59 and had a good XC season. 6th and 4th respectively at NXN and Champs. He has a shot
5-Burns has run 3:58. He also had a good XC season (2nd at NXN midwest). Also third fastest senior at 2 miles (8:45). He also has a shot.
The 4min milers:
6-Rocky Hansen has run 4:00. He also had a good XC season until the national championships. He can definitely go sub 8
7-Kipyego has run 4:00. Had a good XC season. He has a shot at sub 8 (sub 7:57?)
The others:
8-Gorze has run 14:00 last year. Had a very good XC season (3rd at NXN). He could do it
9-Kole Mathison: does not have the track credentials, but has beaten pretty much everybody on this list. Champs winner and 4th at NXN. He could maybe do it.
10-Simmons had come from nowhere to 2nd at NXN. He is in a very good program (American Fork). Maybe?